Dear Sir or Madam,
Despite the European Commission’s reform proposals on 17 July aimed at weakening the European Emissions Trading System, prices in the EU ETS¹ rose significantly last week. The price of European emission allowances fluctuated last week between €78.76 and €86.91 in the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) benchmark contract and closed the week up 5.4 per cent, well above the €80 mark.
During these price movements, technical resistance levels were easily breached, and both the 200-day moving average and the 38-day moving average are heading towards the €80 mark. The 200-day moving average was last seen above the 80-euro mark in September 2024, whilst the 38-day moving average was last seen above it in early April this year.
From a technical analysis perspective, it will therefore be interesting to see whether EUAs attempt once again this trading week to reach the previous week’s highs or move towards the 80-euro mark.
This week, due to the scheduled absence of Poland’s Wednesday auction, a total of 7,739,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over the remaining four trading days, representing a 15.1 per cent decline compared with the previous week.
Last week’s Wednesday auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme resulted, for the first time, in an allocation below the 5 per cent mark; participants received just 4.63 per cent of the bid volumes.
As in previous auctions, 10,671,000 nEZ26 were originally offered; as all bidders submitted bids at €65 this time, 21.3 million allowances were again allocated.
This means that 44 per cent of the total volume of 192 million national emission allowances offered for auction during the auction phase has now been allocated.
Compared with the previous week, the total bid volume increased by around 50 million allowances to 461 million, and it is expected that there will be further increases, meaning that the percentage allocation rate will continue to fall.
As 460 million allowances are significantly more than the total compliance requirement – which is expected to be around 300 million allowances this year –
we expect that both speculative market participants are bidding in high volumes and that compliance buyers are also submitting bids for a multiple of their actual requirements in order to secure the best possible supply at the price of 65 euros.
Last year, a total of 294 million national emission allowances were sold.
| Instrument | 17/07/26 | 24/07/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 79.11 EUR | 83.40 EUR | +4.29 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2027-Future) | 66.55 EUR | 66.55 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates) | 65.00 EUR | 65.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 58.70 GBP | 59.83 GBP | +1.13 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 143.54 GBP | 159.00 GBP | +15.46 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 83.17 USD | 85.52 USD | +2.35 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1439 USD | 1.1371 USD | +0.0068 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team