Month: July 2020

Dear Madam or Sir,

The corona pandemic is in full swing in the United States and many countries in South America, and scientists in Europe are also concerned that a second wave will come at the end of the holiday season at the latest. How politics will deal with this second wave is so far unclear, but at least regional lockdowns are a possible option.

Even though the prices for Brent crude oil have been above the USD 40 mark since mid-June and the prices for non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminium or zinc also testify to rising demand, the rapid rise in the crisis metal gold shows that Nervousness of investors, who currently do not really want to trust the significantly increased stock markets.

Shortly before the summer break and the jump above the 30 euro mark two weeks ago, the prices for CO2 certificates made a correction by taking profits, which also continued in the past week. From a technical point of view, the bullish trend is still there, as long as the support lasts in the range of approx. 26 euros.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	17/07/2020	24/07/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	27.73 EUR	26.29 EUR	-1.44 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	27.82 EUR	26.37 EUR	-1.45 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.30 EUR	0.30 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	43.08 USD	43.26 USD	+0.18 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1425 USD	1.1655 USD	+0.0230 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

While Poland wants to avoid responsibility for a Europe-wide goal of climate neutrality in 2050, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment decides to launch a comprehensive package of measures to support developing and emerging countries in dealing with the COVID 19 crisis in an ecologically-oriented manner. To this end, it is making 68 million euros available from funds from the international climate protection initiative. 29 projects in 25 countries are to be supported. In particular, emergency aid measures for nature reserves, stabilization of the economy with employment-promoting climate protection projects, advice for climate-friendly economic stimulus programs and pandemic prevention through the protection of biodiversity will be supported.

A report from the “Scientific Report” shows that climate protection must be rapidly advanced through global measures, which already predicts a CO2 content in the atmosphere for 2025, as it did in the so-called Pliocene 3.3 million years ago. At that time, the global sea level was around 20 meters higher – at 3 to 4 ° C higher global average temperature.

On Monday of the past trading week, the prices for European CO2 emission rights broke the EUR 30 mark and marked a high of EUR 30.80, which led to speculative market participants taking profits in the second half of the week.

This week, 13 million EUAs will be put up for auction at EEX, followed by 18.5 million EUAs in the coming week. After that, August starts with a halved auction volume, which means a volume of only 6.6 million EUA in the first week of August.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	10/07/2020	17/07/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	28.96 EUR	27.73 EUR	-1.23 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	29.02 EUR	27.82 EUR	-1.20 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.30 EUR	+0.02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	43.20 USD	43.08 USD	-0.12 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1305 USD	1.1425 USD	+0.0120 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

Last Friday, Germany’s two legislative bodies decided to gradually phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038. The law is linked to an option for an earlier phase-out, if the framework conditions allow it, as well as to structural aid worth billions for the affected federal states and massive compensation payments for power plant operators for the early decommissioning of their power plants. Is this now the “historic generation project”, as the Federal Minister of Economics calls the decision, or the “historic mistake”, as the CEO of Greenpeace explained?

Whatever one wants to classify the law, it will in any case provide the binding impetus for a series of profound homework to be done by politics, business and society in the coming years. For example, it has yet to be proven that renewable energies can guarantee one hundred percent security of supply in Germany. Otherwise, coal or nuclear power would have to be imported from abroad, which would make the objectives of the phase-out law absurd. It must also be recognised that bridging technologies such as gas-fired power stations with the keyword North stream 2 will play a serious role for some time to come. Increased electricity demand due to electro mobility and electrified motorway routes for heavy traffic must be compensated by lower consumption in other sectors and by new technologies. Seen in this light, the timeframe up to 2038 and 2035 respectively seems quite realistic.

A glance at the development of the CO2 price gives a clear indication of a spectacular trading week. A completely detached, almost diva-like trading process catapulted the market to just over the 28-euro mark. All Corona-related losses were thus more than compensated. At the beginning of March, the average price stood at around 24 euros, then fell by around 10 euros and has now been rising continuously for around four weeks. On Wednesday alone, the price rose by around 1.60 euros. In today’s early trading, this inexplicable trend is continuing unhindered – the 29-euro mark is within sight.

This development is more than astonishing. Even though the compensatory effect of the market stability reserve may be cited as a reason, the price trend is obviously driven purely speculatively. Since 01.07. a corrected auction calendar has been in force, which will provide us with a significantly increased auction volume for the rest of the year. The main reason for the adjustment is the auctioning of an additional 50 million EUA for the European Innovation Fund. In weeks with Polish auctions, the volume will rise to almost 21 million allowances.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument 26/06/2020 03/07/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 24.66 EUR 27.89 EUR +3.23 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future) 24.73 EUR 27.96 EUR +3.23 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.30 EUR 0.27 EUR -0.03 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 40.69 USD 42.78 USD +2.09 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1215 USD 1.1245 USD +0.0030 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH