Dear Sir or Madam,
During his election campaign, US President Donald Trump repeatedly used one of his favourite catchphrases, “drill, baby, drill”, with which he sought to make fossil fuels socially acceptable once again.
However, with his war of aggression against Iran, Trump has achieved exactly the opposite. According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), electric vehicles will account for almost 30% of global car sales by 2026. The shift towards electric mobility – and thus the decarbonisation of transport – is therefore accelerating further. Driven by high oil prices and falling battery costs, the IEA expects 23 million electric vehicles to be sold worldwide this year. In addition to China, demand is now also growing significantly in Europe, Latin America and South-East Asia.
Global trade in renewable energy technologies has also recovered significantly, despite geopolitical tensions and tariffs, reaching 479 billion dollars. Growing concerns about energy security have prompted many countries to strengthen their resilience and increase demand for solar energy and battery storage. As trade routes shift to circumvent new tariffs, clean technology is increasingly becoming a central element of government trade policy.
On 15 July, the European Commission plans to present reform proposals for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). A key component of the reforms is to be the continued free allocation of allowances across various sectors. However, this is to be conditional on companies demonstrating that they are investing in the decarbonisation of their sites within the EU.
Due to potential positive developments regarding the Iran conflict and the alleged agreement on a ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ between the warring parties, the price of EUAs rose above the €80 mark on Thursday last week and closed the week up 4.8%.
US President Trump’s erratic behaviour could, of course, significantly dampen this optimism should he undo the progress made on a whim.
This week, with the exception of Wednesday, a total of 10,595,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over the other four days, representing an increase of 31.7% compared to the previous week. The reason for the sharp rise is the increased auction volume from the EU’s allowances, up from 2,712,500 to 3,198,500 EUAs across three weekdays.
| Instrument | 22/05/26 | 29/05/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 76.92 EUR | 80.63 EUR | +3.71 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2028-Future) | 66.87 EUR | 66.75 EUR | -0.12 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 53.45 GBP | 58.67 GBP | +5.22 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 122.82 GBP | 117.07 GBP | -5.75 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 88.28 USD | 84.18 USD | -4.10 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1604 USD | 1.1660 USD | +0.0056 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team