Month: March 2026

Dear Sir or Madam,

The EU continues to regard emissions trading as its key climate policy instrument, but feels compelled to act in response to rising energy prices caused by the current war in Iran. Several heads of state and government have therefore called for emissions trading to be better protected against price fluctuations and are demanding that the Commission put forward proposals to reduce energy prices. Further discussions will follow in June.

In this context, the European Commission intends to provide short-term relief to industrial companies regarding CO₂ costs and plans to increase the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). The MSR already regulates the supply of allowances to manage the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). In addition, the guidelines for the free allocation of emission allowances are to be revised, taking industry concerns into account. According to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission intends to propose both measures in the coming days.

Furthermore, the Commission is working on a comprehensive reform of the EU ETS. According to von der Leyen, this reform is to be developed in close cooperation with the Member States and relevant stakeholders. A key element is the planned extension of the allocation of free emission allowances to industry beyond 2034. The aim of this measure is to curb high volatility in emissions trading and thereby minimise potential impacts on electricity prices and supply chains.

Prices of EU emission allowances therefore remained under pressure last week, with the benchmark contract trading in a range between €63.07 and €70.35. After hitting an 11-month low on Thursday, EUAs rose on Friday to a daily high of €69.80 following the publication of the results of the European Commission’s consultations.

This week, too, the energy markets will be guided by developments in the Middle East and political developments regarding the planned containment of energy prices.

Last Friday, the EEX updated the trading calendar for the national emissions trading scheme. Auctions are now scheduled to take place between 1 July and 28 October 2026 within a price range of between €55.00 and €65.00, every Wednesday between 13:00 and 15:00. In each auction, 10,833,000 nEZ with the year code 2026 will be offered. At the last auction 6,000 more.

The change of the day of the week from Monday to Wednesday was made in response to requests from several market participants.

Between Tuesday 3 November and Thursday 3 December 2026, the fixed-price auctions with unlimited volume are then scheduled to take place at a price of €68.00, on Tuesdays and Thursdays between 09:00 and 15:00. There has been no change here.

Instrument	13/03/26	20/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	69.16 EUR	67.66 EUR	-1.50 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	66.46 EUR	66.54 EUR	-0.08 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	39.54 GBP	37.14 GBP	-2.40 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	122.19 GBP	151.46 GBP	+29.27 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	81.97 USD	85.87 USD	+3.90 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1417 USD	1.1572 USD	+0.0155 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell only slightly in 2025 compared with the previous year, by just under one million tonnes, or 0.1 per cent, to 649 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. Since 1990, emissions have thus been reduced by 48 per cent.

The energy sector reduced its emissions thanks to increased use of renewable energy; however, transport and buildings caused more emissions. German forests are now once again absorbing more CO₂ than they release. Overall, the climate target remains achievable by 2030, but this will require additional climate protection measures: from 2026 onwards, the annual reduction must average 42 million tonnes of CO₂ to meet the climate protection targets.

In 2025, emissions from the energy sector fell by 0.6 million tonnes to 189.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The expansion of wind and solar energy increased, but low-wind conditions resulted in less wind power than in the previous year. A record figure of nearly 21 gigawatts of new wind power permits was recorded. The Federal Network Agency also granted approvals for 2,000 kilometres of new power lines.

The transport and buildings sectors, which are subject to pricing under the national emissions trading scheme, remain problematic. In 2025, the transport sector generated 146.3 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents – an increase of 2.1 million tonnes. Electric mobility grew strongly and prevented an even greater rise in emissions. Over 180,000 public charging points are now available and almost one in five new cars is fully electric – an increase of 45 per cent compared to 2024. New models, high fuel costs and government subsidies could further drive this trend.

Last year, emissions in the buildings sector rose by 3.4 million tonnes to 103.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, mainly due to cold heating periods. The switch to climate-friendly energy sources is progressing slowly, but heat pumps are gaining acceptance and, for the first time, have overtaken gas heating systems with 299,000 sales – a 55 per cent increase on the previous year. Technological progress, falling costs and more installation options are driving this development.

Last year, industrial emissions fell to 144.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, mainly due to the persistently weak economy – that is 5.6 million tonnes or 3.8 per cent less than the previous year. The main factors were lower production figures in energy-intensive sectors and a decline in the use of fossil fuels. Key future technologies here too are electrification, green hydrogen and low-carbon processes, although their implementation has so far progressed only slowly.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and waste management, by contrast, remained virtually unchanged compared with 2024.

Last week, prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) benchmark contract fluctuated within a range of €67.60 to €74.48, closing at €69.16 – a moderate decrease of 2% compared to the previous week.

As in previous weeks, the war in the Middle East was the key driver, particularly affecting prices in the energy markets and consequently influencing industrial production and consumer behaviour.

The US and Israel have so far failed to secure the Strait of Hormuz for the passage of tankers, which continues to disrupt a fifth of global oil trade.

A swift end to the war is currently not expected, as Iran still has sufficient capacity to defend itself and to launch additional attacks on US-allied states in the region.

As long as this situation persists, prices for crude oil, gas and the associated refinery products such as heating oil, diesel and petrol will remain at a high level.

Provided there are no further fundamental developments regarding the Middle East conflict and no new political statements on the EU ETS, it is highly likely that EUAs will continue to trade in the broad range of around 70 euros this week.

A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX across all five trading days this week.

Instrument	06/03/26	13/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.57 EUR	69.16 EUR	-1.41 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.50 EUR	66.46 EUR	-2.04 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	40.09 GBP	39.54 GBP	-0.55 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	123.67 GBP	122.19 GBP	-1.48 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	74.17 USD	81.97 USD	+7.80 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1618 USD	1.1417 USD	-0.0201 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

At the recent World Climate Conference in Belém, Brazil, a new mechanism for international climate protection projects was developed, known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, or PACM for short. This is the successor to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which was adopted in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol and came into effect in 2001.

The PACM enables countries, companies and organisations to invest in verified emission reduction or removal projects in order to achieve their climate targets. Two types of certificates are issued: Authorised Emission Reductions (AERs) and Mitigation Contribution Units (MCUs).

Strict testing and approval procedures are designed to strengthen confidence in such project mechanisms. The tradable CO₂ certificates can be used not only for partial crediting towards countries’ reduction targets, but also for aviation under the CORSIA mechanism. Companies can also offset their greenhouse gas emissions with AERs and MCUs, although it is still uncertain whether there will be proportional use in the future within the framework of the EU ETS emission allowance trading scheme.

Last week, the UN climate protection organisation UNFCCC approved the first emission allowances to be issued under the United Nations’ new PACM mechanism. The first project involves clean cooking stoves in Myanmar, which were financed by South Korean companies. It is the first of a total of 165 projects that have been transferred from the previous Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which expires at the end of this year, to the PACM.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes, is blocked. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to pass through the strait. Transport flows are therefore significantly impaired. A prolonged blockade threatens to cause supply bottlenecks and have negative consequences for the global economy. Additional interest rate hikes are unlikely, while interest rate cuts could be delayed.

The energy markets have already reacted visibly to this. Even though Brent crude oil rose relatively moderately to USD 74.17 in December futures, the spot market closed at USD 92.61 last Friday. The British gas benchmark contract rose by almost 50% to GBP 123.67 last week, April deliveries rose to GBP 137.42.

To reduce the economic impact, China, among others, has stopped exports of diesel and petrol from its largest refineries, and the US government is attempting to limit the consequences of the war on global energy supplies by securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz with state risk insurance and naval escorts.

Despite these circumstances, which are weighing on the economy, EU emission allowances appear to be bottoming out at around €70, which is why they closed the week with a small gain of 0.4%.

On the fundamental side, developments in the Middle East will remain important this week.

Instrument	27/02/26	06/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.29 EUR	70.57 EUR	+0.28 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	67.10 EUR	68.50 EUR	+1.40 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	46.14 GBP	40.09 GBP	-6.05 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	82.48 GBP	123.67 GBP	+41.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	73.15 USD	74.17 USD	+1.02 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1806 USD	1.1618 USD	-0.0188 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team