Tag: CBAM

Dear Sirs and Madams,

In order to alleviate the financial strain on households caused by the war in the Middle East, the European Commission recommends targeted and timely measures to tackle high energy prices. Generalised solutions based on a ‘scattergun’ approach are not desirable in this context. EU heads of state and government are meeting in Nicosia on Thursday for informal talks on the impact of the Middle East conflict. The day before, the European Commission will present its strategy to combat rising energy prices.

Alongside high energy prices, the focus is on the security of supply of fossil fuels. EU Commission President von der Leyen emphasised that the EU is paying a high price for its dependence on fossil fuels and must continue along the path it has chosen. Currently, 70% of the EU’s electricity comes from renewable sources and nuclear energy; both sectors are therefore to be expanded.

After Iran, for its part, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping last Friday, US President Donald Trump decided not to do so for ships from Iran, whereupon Iran also resumed the blockade over the weekend.

When Iran announced that tankers could pass freely again, oil and gas prices fell sharply and the prices of CO₂ emission allowances rose accordingly, as higher carbon emissions were expected.

Now that the Strait of Hormuz is impassable once more, this is pushing the markets back in exactly the opposite directions.

Whether hostilities will resume by midweek or whether an agreement can still be reached in the coming days remains entirely open.

Price movements in the energy sector and for emission allowances will reflect all geopolitical developments in the Middle East accordingly.

Instrument	10/04/26	17/04/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	72.84 EUR	77.46 EUR	+4.62 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	67.00 EUR	68.50 EUR	+1.50 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	43.39 GBP	51.70 GBP	+8.31 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	112.84 GBP	101.90 GBP	-10.94 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	81.00 USD	78.45 USD	-2.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1725 USD	1.1765 USD	-0.0040 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

The EU’s CO₂ emissions trading scheme could in future also include the removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere. A study by the renowned Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) proposes a phased integration to avoid perverse incentives and provide planning certainty for industry. The findings are being incorporated into current regulatory debates in Brussels.

The existing EU emissions trading scheme could create incentives to remove between 68 and 86 million tonnes of CO₂ annually by 2050, depending on the costs. The PIK team used the LIMES-EU model to analyse investment decisions in the EU, the UK and Norway. Two innovative methods were examined: air filtration systems (Direct Air Capture) and biomass combustion with CO₂ capture (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture).

Whether the EU will follow the PIK’s proposal remains to be seen in the coming years. However, financing CO₂ removal through emission allowances could lead to significant progress in achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has now received its first reference price of 75.36 euros per tonne. The price range of EUAs in the first quarter of 2026 served as the basis for this calculation. From 2027, the price will be determined on a weekly basis. The management and purchasing strategy for CBAM allowances will then become commercially relevant, as importers will be able to control their costs in this way. The possibility of hedging already exists today, for example through the purchase of EUAs.

The CBAM is the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, which makes climate-damaging imports more expensive. It is intended to prevent so-called ‘carbon leakage’ – the relocation of production to countries with no or significantly lower carbon pricing. From 2026, importers will have to purchase allowances for emissions in products such as steel, cement and fertiliser. The purchase of allowances for emissions from 2026 is expected to be possible from 1 February 2027.

EUA prices fluctuated within a range of 71.21 to 73.97 euros in the benchmark contract during the past shortened trading week. On a closing price basis, they rose by 1.6%.

This week, a total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX) across all five trading days, representing a 65% increase compared to the previous week.

Following the failure of negotiations in Pakistan to end the war in the Middle East, prices in the energy sector – and thus also for emission allowances – will be largely determined by further developments in the coming days.

Instrument	02/04/26	10/04/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	71.69 EUR	72.84 EUR	+1.15 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	66.84 EUR	67.00 EUR	+0.16 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	41.50 GBP	43.39 GBP	+1.89 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	129.71 GBP	112.84 GBP	-16.87 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	79.02 USD	81.00 USD	+1.98 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1519 USD	1.1725 USD	+0.0206 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

On Wednesday, the European Commission proposed revising the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to curb rising CO₂ and energy prices. As part of this, the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) for European emissions trading, which has been in place since 2019, will be adjusted.

The Commission intends to prevent surplus emission allowances from being automatically cancelled in future, in order to better offset price fluctuations. Until now, allowances exceeding a value of 400 million must be removed from the market by reducing auction volumes. In future, these emission allowances are instead to be retained as a reserve to support market stability and, if necessary, increase auction volumes, thereby sending a bearish price signal.

According to the European Commission, greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 39 per cent since 1990, whilst the economy has nonetheless grown by 71 per cent. Due to higher energy prices caused by the war in Iran, the Commission and Member States are working on relaxing emissions trading to reduce costs for industry. The planned changes to the ETS are intended to allow the EU to respond more flexibly to market changes; following consultation with Member States, concrete reform proposals will now be available in July.

Whether the Middle East conflict will have been defused by then and to what extent energy prices will continue to be affected by it remains uncertain, however.

On Friday, the benchmark December 2026 contract for Brent crude oil closed at US$79.02, down US$5.41 on a weekly basis, the spot market, however, was once again close to the high of 30 March, which stood at US$112.85, and ended last week at US$108.84.

As the Easter holidays almost traditionally lead to higher prices at the pumps, average prices for a litre of diesel rose to nearly €2.50 over the Easter break in Germany.

German Top Economist Veronika Grimm has therefore raised the issue of speed limits on German autobahns. As public discourse has become increasingly difficult in recent years, this has naturally led to criticism that people should be able to decide for themselves how fast they want to drive on the motorway, even at 100 km/h, in order to save fuel.

But ultimately, this misses the point. It is not about taking away the freedom of drivers of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles to drive at 100 km/h, but about reducing overall consumption of diesel and petrol in order to ensure security of supply and thereby bring prices down. After all, there are still plenty of drivers of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles who are travelling at significantly higher speeds.

Countries such as China have already decided to halt exports of diesel and petrol, and Russia also no longer wishes to export oil. Combined with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a worsening of the supply situation is becoming increasingly likely for Central Europe as well, and all measures should therefore be taken to avoid a shortage, as this would place a heavy burden on the economy and private households.

The remaining leadership in Iran has recognised its leverage regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is why the EU must significantly step up its efforts to achieve independence from fossil fuels, a goal towards which revenue from emissions trading could be directed.

Prices in the EU ETS remained virtually unchanged last week compared to the previous week. EUAs closed with a small gain of two cents at 71.69 euros in the benchmark contract.

Due to the scheduled absence of the Polish auction and because of Easter Monday, only three auctions will take place on the EEX this week, with a total of 6,518,000 EUAs being put up for auction.

Instrument	27/03/26	02/04/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	71.67 EUR	71.69 EUR	+0.02 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	66.66 EUR	66.84 EUR	+0.18 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	37.05 GBP	41.50 GBP	+4.45 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	142.61 GBP	129.71 GBP	-12.90 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	84.43 USD	79.02 USD	-5.41 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1508 USD	1.1519 USD	-0.0011 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The EU continues to regard emissions trading as its key climate policy instrument, but feels compelled to act in response to rising energy prices caused by the current war in Iran. Several heads of state and government have therefore called for emissions trading to be better protected against price fluctuations and are demanding that the Commission put forward proposals to reduce energy prices. Further discussions will follow in June.

In this context, the European Commission intends to provide short-term relief to industrial companies regarding CO₂ costs and plans to increase the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). The MSR already regulates the supply of allowances to manage the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). In addition, the guidelines for the free allocation of emission allowances are to be revised, taking industry concerns into account. According to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission intends to propose both measures in the coming days.

Furthermore, the Commission is working on a comprehensive reform of the EU ETS. According to von der Leyen, this reform is to be developed in close cooperation with the Member States and relevant stakeholders. A key element is the planned extension of the allocation of free emission allowances to industry beyond 2034. The aim of this measure is to curb high volatility in emissions trading and thereby minimise potential impacts on electricity prices and supply chains.

Prices of EU emission allowances therefore remained under pressure last week, with the benchmark contract trading in a range between €63.07 and €70.35. After hitting an 11-month low on Thursday, EUAs rose on Friday to a daily high of €69.80 following the publication of the results of the European Commission’s consultations.

This week, too, the energy markets will be guided by developments in the Middle East and political developments regarding the planned containment of energy prices.

Last Friday, the EEX updated the trading calendar for the national emissions trading scheme. Auctions are now scheduled to take place between 1 July and 28 October 2026 within a price range of between €55.00 and €65.00, every Wednesday between 13:00 and 15:00. In each auction, 10,833,000 nEZ with the year code 2026 will be offered. At the last auction 6,000 more.

The change of the day of the week from Monday to Wednesday was made in response to requests from several market participants.

Between Tuesday 3 November and Thursday 3 December 2026, the fixed-price auctions with unlimited volume are then scheduled to take place at a price of €68.00, on Tuesdays and Thursdays between 09:00 and 15:00. There has been no change here.

Instrument	13/03/26	20/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	69.16 EUR	67.66 EUR	-1.50 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	66.46 EUR	66.54 EUR	-0.08 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	39.54 GBP	37.14 GBP	-2.40 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	122.19 GBP	151.46 GBP	+29.27 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	81.97 USD	85.87 USD	+3.90 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1417 USD	1.1572 USD	+0.0155 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell only slightly in 2025 compared with the previous year, by just under one million tonnes, or 0.1 per cent, to 649 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. Since 1990, emissions have thus been reduced by 48 per cent.

The energy sector reduced its emissions thanks to increased use of renewable energy; however, transport and buildings caused more emissions. German forests are now once again absorbing more CO₂ than they release. Overall, the climate target remains achievable by 2030, but this will require additional climate protection measures: from 2026 onwards, the annual reduction must average 42 million tonnes of CO₂ to meet the climate protection targets.

In 2025, emissions from the energy sector fell by 0.6 million tonnes to 189.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The expansion of wind and solar energy increased, but low-wind conditions resulted in less wind power than in the previous year. A record figure of nearly 21 gigawatts of new wind power permits was recorded. The Federal Network Agency also granted approvals for 2,000 kilometres of new power lines.

The transport and buildings sectors, which are subject to pricing under the national emissions trading scheme, remain problematic. In 2025, the transport sector generated 146.3 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents – an increase of 2.1 million tonnes. Electric mobility grew strongly and prevented an even greater rise in emissions. Over 180,000 public charging points are now available and almost one in five new cars is fully electric – an increase of 45 per cent compared to 2024. New models, high fuel costs and government subsidies could further drive this trend.

Last year, emissions in the buildings sector rose by 3.4 million tonnes to 103.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, mainly due to cold heating periods. The switch to climate-friendly energy sources is progressing slowly, but heat pumps are gaining acceptance and, for the first time, have overtaken gas heating systems with 299,000 sales – a 55 per cent increase on the previous year. Technological progress, falling costs and more installation options are driving this development.

Last year, industrial emissions fell to 144.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, mainly due to the persistently weak economy – that is 5.6 million tonnes or 3.8 per cent less than the previous year. The main factors were lower production figures in energy-intensive sectors and a decline in the use of fossil fuels. Key future technologies here too are electrification, green hydrogen and low-carbon processes, although their implementation has so far progressed only slowly.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and waste management, by contrast, remained virtually unchanged compared with 2024.

Last week, prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) benchmark contract fluctuated within a range of €67.60 to €74.48, closing at €69.16 – a moderate decrease of 2% compared to the previous week.

As in previous weeks, the war in the Middle East was the key driver, particularly affecting prices in the energy markets and consequently influencing industrial production and consumer behaviour.

The US and Israel have so far failed to secure the Strait of Hormuz for the passage of tankers, which continues to disrupt a fifth of global oil trade.

A swift end to the war is currently not expected, as Iran still has sufficient capacity to defend itself and to launch additional attacks on US-allied states in the region.

As long as this situation persists, prices for crude oil, gas and the associated refinery products such as heating oil, diesel and petrol will remain at a high level.

Provided there are no further fundamental developments regarding the Middle East conflict and no new political statements on the EU ETS, it is highly likely that EUAs will continue to trade in the broad range of around 70 euros this week.

A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX across all five trading days this week.

Instrument	06/03/26	13/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.57 EUR	69.16 EUR	-1.41 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.50 EUR	66.46 EUR	-2.04 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	40.09 GBP	39.54 GBP	-0.55 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	123.67 GBP	122.19 GBP	-1.48 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	74.17 USD	81.97 USD	+7.80 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1618 USD	1.1417 USD	-0.0201 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team