Tag: EU ETS

Dear Sir or Madam,

During his election campaign, US President Donald Trump repeatedly used one of his favourite catchphrases, “drill, baby, drill”, with which he sought to make fossil fuels socially acceptable once again.

However, with his war of aggression against Iran, Trump has achieved exactly the opposite. According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), electric vehicles will account for almost 30% of global car sales by 2026. The shift towards electric mobility – and thus the decarbonisation of transport – is therefore accelerating further. Driven by high oil prices and falling battery costs, the IEA expects 23 million electric vehicles to be sold worldwide this year. In addition to China, demand is now also growing significantly in Europe, Latin America and South-East Asia.

Global trade in renewable energy technologies has also recovered significantly, despite geopolitical tensions and tariffs, reaching 479 billion dollars. Growing concerns about energy security have prompted many countries to strengthen their resilience and increase demand for solar energy and battery storage. As trade routes shift to circumvent new tariffs, clean technology is increasingly becoming a central element of government trade policy.

On 15 July, the European Commission plans to present reform proposals for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). A key component of the reforms is to be the continued free allocation of allowances across various sectors. However, this is to be conditional on companies demonstrating that they are investing in the decarbonisation of their sites within the EU.

Due to potential positive developments regarding the Iran conflict and the alleged agreement on a ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ between the warring parties, the price of EUAs rose above the €80 mark on Thursday last week and closed the week up 4.8%.

US President Trump’s erratic behaviour could, of course, significantly dampen this optimism should he undo the progress made on a whim.

This week, with the exception of Wednesday, a total of 10,595,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over the other four days, representing an increase of 31.7% compared to the previous week. The reason for the sharp rise is the increased auction volume from the EU’s allowances, up from 2,712,500 to 3,198,500 EUAs across three weekdays.

Instrument	22/05/26	29/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	76.92 EUR	80.63 EUR	+3.71 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	66.87 EUR	66.75 EUR	-0.12 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	53.45 GBP	58.67 GBP	+5.22 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	122.82 GBP	117.07 GBP	-5.75 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	88.28 USD	84.18 USD	-4.10 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1604 USD	1.1660 USD	+0.0056 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the UN General Assembly adopted a historic resolution that legally obliges all member states to take stronger action on climate change. It is based on a landmark advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2025. According to this opinion, failure to meet climate protection targets is unlawful, and affected states may claim compensation.

The initiative stems from a campaign by law students from small island states such as Vanuatu, which are particularly threatened by rising sea levels. They had also prompted the ICJ’s advisory opinion of July 2025.

141 countries voted in favour of the resolution. 28 states abstained, including India and several major oil-producing nations. Eight states rejected it, including the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran. Even states that, like the US under Donald Trump, withdrew from the Paris Agreement again in early 2026 remain bound by these obligations under customary international law.

As the World Bank reported last week, global revenue from carbon pricing has tripled over the last decade – from under $30 billion in 2016 to more than $107 billion for public budgets in 2025, according to a report published last week by the World Bank Group.

Just over 29% of global greenhouse gas emissions are currently covered by direct CO₂ pricing, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). This share would rise to around a third if the instruments currently under development were introduced in other major emerging economies.

In Washington, Donald Trump now expects an agreement with Iran to be imminent and the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened within 30 days of the agreement. And this would be urgently needed, as oil reserves are falling daily and, should the conflict continue and oil supplies from the region remain cut off, would only last until the end of the summer. However, even a prompt resolution is expected to bring increasing supply uncertainty in the autumn.

Prices in the EU ETS1 rose by 1.7% last week compared with the previous week to 76.92 euros in the benchmark contract. EUAs traded within a range of 74.52 to 77.17 euros.

Due to Whit Monday, there will again be only four auctions on the European Energy Exchange this week; the total volume stands at 8,042,500 EUAs, which is 12.9% lower than the previous week.

Instrument	15/05/26	22/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	75.60 EUR	76.92 EUR	+1.32 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	66.75 EUR	66.87 EUR	+0.12 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	51.13 GBP	53.45 GBP	+2.32 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	124.79 GBP	122.82 GBP	-1.97 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	90.98 USD	88.28 USD	-2.70 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1626 USD	1.1604 USD	-0.0022 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The price of crude oil is surprisingly low given that global oil reserves are dwindling at a record pace.

It is not only the transport problems in the Strait of Hormuz that are putting pressure on the global oil supply; production also fell between March and April. This is the conclusion reached by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) May oil market report, which was published last Wednesday. Supply flows of crude oil, natural gas and fuels from the Persian Gulf remain largely disrupted; according to the report, governments and companies are responding with rationing, austerity measures and price controls.

The IEA estimates that the situation will drag on for months. The release of emergency reserves in Germany, the US and Japan caused recorded oil stocks to fall by around four million barrels a day in March and April. The oil market will remain “massively undersupplied” until October, even if the Iran conflict ends soon.

On the spot market, Brent crude oil closed at US$109.35 last week, and the December contract also climbed back above the US$90 mark.

The European Energy Exchange (EEX) published the revised EUA auction calendar for 2026 last Tuesday. It applies from June to December and takes into account the amended European Climate Law. From June 2026, 50 million EUAs will be auctioned for the Social Climate Fund. Of these, 10 million had previously been allocated to participating Member States. These 10 million allowances were deducted from those allocations and also allocated to the fund.

The Social Climate Fund is an EU fund designed to cushion the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS2) in the buildings and transport sectors for particularly affected citizens and micro-enterprises. It provides Member States with funds for temporary income support, investments in energy efficiency and building decarbonisation, as well as for improved access to low-emission mobility.

As a result, the EU auctions, which usually take place three times a week, will increase from 2,712,500 to 3,198,500 between June and August, and to 3,699,000 EUAs from September onwards. The weekly German auction will be reduced from 1,093,000 to 1,000,000 allowances over the next three months, before rising to 2,596,000 EUAs per week from September. The fortnightly auction for Poland will be reduced from 1,524,500 to 1,380,000 EUAs over the following three-month period, with the volume rising to 2,794,000 emission allowances from September.

In addition, the German government plans to continue pricing in the national emissions trading system (nEHS) in 2027 as it has done this year.

Currently, the rule is that the price of national emission allowances is based on the average price of EU ETS1 emission allowances. 

This requires an amendment to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) and the Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance (BEHV) by the German Bundestag and Bundesrat.

Last week, during which only three auctions took place on the EEX due to public holidays, EUAs traded within a range of €73.69 to €77.45.

Due to the scheduled absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, a total of 9,230,500 EUAs from the EU and Germany will be auctioned on the other four trading days this week.

Instrument	08/05/26	15/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	75.18 EUR	75.60 EUR	+0.42 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67.00 EUR	66.75 EUR	-0.25 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	50.05 GBP	51.13 GBP	+1.08 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	112.80 GBP	124.79 GBP	+11.99 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	87.28 USD	90.98 USD	+3.70 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1787 USD	1.1626 USD	-0.0161 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

For the Western industrialised nations, the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East represent two pressing areas of concern that are affecting economic growth and the stability of the energy supply of fossil fuels.

By now, all parties to the aforementioned wars seem to have realised that it makes sense, both domestically and economically, to prepare an exit strategy.

To what extent this is within reach cannot be predicted with any certainty by the key players; however, there are increasing signs that the conflicts could come to an end.

Needless to say, the main focus now is on achieving this in a way that preserves some degree of face, so that each party can present itself as a winner in some capacity.

To the extent that these signs of détente continue to mount, this could send further bearish signals to the energy markets, which should have the opposite effect on emissions allowances.

Over the past trading week, EU emission allowances therefore rose moderately, trading within a range of 72.71 to 77.11 euros in the December benchmark contract.

On a closing price basis for the week, they ultimately showed a gain of 1.7%, whilst UK Natural Gas, for example, fell by 4.3%.

This week, due to the public holiday and the long weekend on Friday, a total of 6,949,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX over just three trading days.

It will not be until the 24th calendar week, which begins on 6 June 2026, that the maximum weekly volume will again be auctioned over five days.

Instrument	01/05/26	08/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	73.94 EUR	75.18 EUR	+1.24 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67.41 EUR	67.00 EUR	-0.41 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	49.88 GBP	50.05 GBP	+0.17 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	117.87 GBP	112.80 GBP	-5.07 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	87.40 USD	87.28 USD	-0.12 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1721 USD	1.1787 USD	+0.0066 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s open criticism of the US government regarding the lack of a clear exit strategy in the Iran conflict may be understandable, but it has led to the predictable response from Donald Trump, who, in addition to withdrawing US Army troops from Germany, intends to impose 25% import tariffs on the already struggling European car industry.

Trump’s reasoning may be inconsistent, but the issue has the potential to lead to further escalation between the US and Europe, which in turn will affect European economic growth. The impact on the financial markets will be felt accordingly, even though they have now become more resilient to Donald Trump’s announcements in terms of market psychology.

Last Tuesday, the European Energy Exchange published the updated auction calendar for national emissions trading in Germany. Among the key changes is that auctions will now take place on Wednesdays between 13:00 and 15:00, starting on 1 July 2026.

In addition, the weekly auction volume has been adjusted to 10,671,000 nEZ; the final auction within the €55–€65 range will take place on 28 October 2026 with 10,678,240 nEZ. The total volume within the range auctions, which had previously been 195,000,000 nEZ, has now been reduced to 192,085,240 nEZ.

The total demand for 2025 amounted to 294,000,000 nEZ. Based on this, there is an additional demand of 103 million nEZ, which can be met without limit at a price of €68 between 3 November 2026 and 3 December 2026, on Tuesdays.

Given the assumption that investors with speculative interests will also secure allowances at a price of up to €65 during the auction phase, in order to then offer them profitably on the secondary market below €68 during the fixed-price phase, there is a high probability that only a small proportion of the demand for 2026 can be met within the range of €55 – €65. Companies subject to trading obligations should take this into account when calculating their product prices. We would be happy to advise you on this matter.

Also last week, the European Parliament presented plans regarding the EU ETS2, which is set to come into force from 2028 and will replace the national emissions trading scheme in Germany. In particular, the initially targeted price of €45 per EUA2 was reaffirmed, which is to be achieved through rapid intervention by the market stability reserve should speculative behaviour drive prices up too sharply. At the same time, the cap-and-trade mechanism is to be retained.

So far, however, this has not had a significant impact on prices in the EU ETS2 futures market (December 2028 future).

Prices for EUAs fluctuated within a moderate range of €72.43 to €76.04 last week, showing a decline of 1.3% on a closing price basis.

On the EEX, a total of 9,230,500 EUAs will be auctioned over the remaining four days this week due to the absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, representing a 4.5% decrease compared to the previous week.

Instrument	24/04/26	01/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	74,90 EUR	73,94 EUR	-0,96 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67,23 EUR	67,41 EUR	+0,18 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55,00 EUR	55,00 EUR	+0,00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	50,47 GBP	49,88 GBP	-0,59 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	115,79 GBP	117,87 GBP	+2,08 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	84,81 USD	87,40 USD	+2,59 USD
EURO (Forex)	1,1721 USD	1,1721 USD	+0,0000 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team