Tag: EU ETS

Dear Sir or Madam,

At the recent World Climate Conference in Belém, Brazil, a new mechanism for international climate protection projects was developed, known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, or PACM for short. This is the successor to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which was adopted in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol and came into effect in 2001.

The PACM enables countries, companies and organisations to invest in verified emission reduction or removal projects in order to achieve their climate targets. Two types of certificates are issued: Authorised Emission Reductions (AERs) and Mitigation Contribution Units (MCUs).

Strict testing and approval procedures are designed to strengthen confidence in such project mechanisms. The tradable CO₂ certificates can be used not only for partial crediting towards countries’ reduction targets, but also for aviation under the CORSIA mechanism. Companies can also offset their greenhouse gas emissions with AERs and MCUs, although it is still uncertain whether there will be proportional use in the future within the framework of the EU ETS emission allowance trading scheme.

Last week, the UN climate protection organisation UNFCCC approved the first emission allowances to be issued under the United Nations’ new PACM mechanism. The first project involves clean cooking stoves in Myanmar, which were financed by South Korean companies. It is the first of a total of 165 projects that have been transferred from the previous Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which expires at the end of this year, to the PACM.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes, is blocked. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to pass through the strait. Transport flows are therefore significantly impaired. A prolonged blockade threatens to cause supply bottlenecks and have negative consequences for the global economy. Additional interest rate hikes are unlikely, while interest rate cuts could be delayed.

The energy markets have already reacted visibly to this. Even though Brent crude oil rose relatively moderately to USD 74.17 in December futures, the spot market closed at USD 92.61 last Friday. The British gas benchmark contract rose by almost 50% to GBP 123.67 last week, April deliveries rose to GBP 137.42.

To reduce the economic impact, China, among others, has stopped exports of diesel and petrol from its largest refineries, and the US government is attempting to limit the consequences of the war on global energy supplies by securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz with state risk insurance and naval escorts.

Despite these circumstances, which are weighing on the economy, EU emission allowances appear to be bottoming out at around €70, which is why they closed the week with a small gain of 0.4%.

On the fundamental side, developments in the Middle East will remain important this week.

Instrument	27/02/26	06/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.29 EUR	70.57 EUR	+0.28 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	67.10 EUR	68.50 EUR	+1.40 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	46.14 GBP	40.09 GBP	-6.05 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	82.48 GBP	123.67 GBP	+41.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	73.15 USD	74.17 USD	+1.02 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1806 USD	1.1618 USD	-0.0188 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Even if one has almost lost faith in it, there are still functioning institutions in the United States.

On Friday, the US Supreme Court rejected key tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The court ruled that the White House could not use an old emergency law to impose ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on almost all trading partners last year. According to the ruling, tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China were also illegal.

The ruling was passed by a vote of 6 to 3. Three conservative judges rejected Trump’s argument despite their affinity for the tradition of a strong presidency.

Donald Trump now appears visibly shaken, and the Supreme Court’s ruling has dealt the US president a severe narcissistic blow, as was evident from his behaviour at the subsequent press conference in relation to his offensive remarks about the judges.

Trump initially wanted to impose tariffs of 10%, then 15% on Saturday, but this is only possible for a period of 150 days under the new legal basis that has been brought into play. Legal countermeasures are considered likely.

The US will almost certainly face a wave of lawsuits from affected companies in the coming weeks, with the total amount in dispute estimated at US$175 billion.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz now wants to fly to the US at the beginning of March, where this issue will also be on the agenda.

Last week, the German Chancellor once again clearly committed himself to carbon emissions trading systems, even if it is to be reformed. He is also counting on a redistribution of revenues through the creation of a ‘climate fund’ paid to the households to increase acceptance among the population while maintaining the steering effect.

Meanwhile, German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider is calling in Brussels for the chemical industry to be given more free emission allowances than previously planned. According to the SPD politician, the industry is under pressure worldwide, which is why more realistic guidelines for the allocation of emission allowances are needed in the short term.

This measure could relieve the chemical industry, but it should not be the only one. Schneider emphasised that emissions trading successfully combines climate protection and economic strength. Nevertheless, the framework conditions must be adjusted so that Germany and Europe remain competitive as chemical production locations. However, the total number of CO₂ emission allowances is to remain unchanged.

All in all, the market for EU emission allowances responded positively to these political signals in the past trading week and, after bottoming out at around €69, closed higher for the first time since the third calendar week of 2026 on a weekly closing basis.

EUAs gained 4.4% and recovered above the psychologically important €70 mark on Wednesday after hitting a nine-month low of 68.11 in the benchmark contract on Monday.

The markets have not yet reacted to the 15% tariffs announced over the weekend, so this trading week is likely to be characterised by corresponding volatility.

Instrument	13/02/26	20/02/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.68 EUR	73.78 EUR	+3.10 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	65.82 EUR	66.64 EUR	+0.82 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	45.50 GBP	47.62 GBP	+2.12 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	78.35 GBP	80.98 GBP	+2.63 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	64.69 USD	67.43 USD	+2.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1869 USD	1.1728 USD	-0.0087 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

The vulnerability of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) could not have been better demonstrated than in the past two weeks.

As soon as politicians make statements that undermine the effectiveness of the well-functioning emissions trading system, the market reacts with extreme volatility.

After significant price losses had already occurred when rumours circulated that the EU ETS could be weakened in the reform proposals in the middle of this year, as there would be scope to reduce the target of greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 85% by 2040 instead of 90%, there would be more leeway, recent statements from politicians have again influenced the price.

In particular, comments made by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz last Wednesday regarding a ‘postponement of the EU ETS’ triggered another significant price slump in the last two days of last week, causing prices for EU emission allowances to plummet to almost the €70 mark.

We can only guess at what Friedrich Merz meant by his statement. Either he was referring to a further postponement of EU ETS 2 or, in the case of EU ETS 1, to a reduction in the linear reduction factor for certificate quantities from 4.3% to 4.4%; perhaps he was also referring to the extension of free certificate allocations to industry.

The pressure exerted on Brussels by parts of the chemical industry was fuelled in particular by the realisation that sufficient lobbying can achieve a great deal, as demonstrated by the automotive lobby in the case of the ban on combustion engines.

At the industry summit in Antwerp, however, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not announce the desired concessions. Instead, more funds from EU ETS revenues are to flow into the affected industries, as EU member states have invested only five per cent of the approximately €260 billion generated to date in greenhouse gas reduction in industry.

Until final decisions are made, the volatility of the EU ETS will remain high and react to corresponding statements on the reform plans.

This currently provides compliance buyers with favourable buying opportunities and speculators with opportunities for profitable trades.

In the past trading week, the price of EUAs lost a further 10.2%; since the 27-month high of €93.80 in the benchmark contract on 15 January 2026, the price has fallen by as much as 24.8% to its lowest level since the beginning of May last year.

The EUA2 futures contract also fell by 11.2%, while UK emissions allowances (UKA) fell by almost 20% in the wake of the EUAs.

This trading week, it will be interesting to see whether the EUAs can hold the €70 mark; otherwise, the next relevant technical support levels are slightly above the €60 mark. Technical resistance to the upside is particularly evident at the 200-day line, which currently stands at €79.06.

A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days this week.

Instrument	06/02/26	13/02/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	78.73 EUR	70.68 EUR	-8.05 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	74.09 EUR	65.82 EUR	-8.27 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	56.69 GBP	45.50 GBP	-11.19 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	80.29 GBP	78.35 GBP	-1.94 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	65.26 USD	64.69 USD	-0.57 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1816 USD	1.1869 USD	+0.0053 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX) and the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) of the Federal Environment Agency have published the provisional sales calendar for the auctioning of national emission allowances (nEZ) in accordance with the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) in 2026.

For the first time this year, nEHS allowances will be auctioned on the EEX at a price range between EUR 55.00 and EUR 65.00. The auctions will take place once a week on Mondays from 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. The first auction is scheduled for 6 July 2026, and the last auction date of the year is expected to be 2 November 2026.

The total quantity planned for auction is based on a preliminary estimate of 195 million nEZ. The DEHSt will announce the final auction volume by 30 April 2026 at the latest, after which the EEX will adjust the calendar accordingly. This means that 10,833,000 nEZ26 will be auctioned weekly, with 6,000 more in the last auction in December.

Since a total of 294 million nEZ were auctioned in 2025 as part of the final year of the fixed price phase, this will result in a calculated shortfall of just under 100 million allowances in the auctions, which can then be purchased in unlimited volumes at a price of EUR 68.00, also on a weekly basis between 3 November and 3 December 2026. Ultimately, this means that approximately one-third of the certificates must be purchased at a price of EUR 68.00 to fulfil the surrender obligation if demand is the same as in the previous year.

As it is highly likely that investors who are not subject to the obligation to surrender allowances will also try to stock up cheaply at the auctions and sell the certificates at a profit on the secondary market, compliance buyers would be well advised to adjust their pricing calculations accordingly.

In the EU ETS, a total of 9,230,500 emission allowances will be auctioned on the EEX over four days this week, with prices continuing to come under pressure in the past trading week.

The reason for this is the EU’s possible plans to ease the burden on energy-intensive European industry. According to Handelsblatt, which cites EU officials, this industry is to receive free CO₂ certificates for longer than originally planned. The EU Commission apparently plans to relax emissions trading (ETS) and continue the free allocation of emission allowances beyond 2034.

The auctioning of allowances in the ETS could also be postponed until after 2039. Under current legislation, companies would no longer be eligible for free allowances from that point onwards and would have to produce in a climate-neutral manner. The Commission intends to present its proposal on this in July.

Last autumn, EU Member States decided to reduce CO₂ emissions by 80 to 85 per cent by 2040, instead of 90 per cent as previously proposed by the Commission. This gives the EU more flexibility to weaken the ETS. However, the goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050 remains unchanged.

As the EUAs have now left the bullish trend channel for good and a bearish channel has emerged, it remains to be seen how long this negative sentiment will last.

The trading range of the benchmark contract last week was between EUR 84.84 and EUR 76.20, with Friday’s closing price down 3.1% for the week.

As the new trend channel is relatively wide, EUAs could break through the EUR 80 mark again, which could be nothing more than a confirmation of the current trend. However, it cannot be ruled out that the market will now focus on the EUR 75 mark.

Instrument	30/01/26	06/02/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	81.26 EUR	78.73 EUR	-2.53 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	75.12 EUR	74.09 EUR	-1.03 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	61.89 GBP	56.69 GBP	-5.20 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	81.48 GBP	80.29 GBP	-1.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	66.02 USD	65.26 USD	-0.76 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1851 USD	1.1816 USD	-0.0035 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team