Tag: Emissionshandel

Dear Sir or Madam,

The second auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme also closed at the maximum price of 65.00 euros, meaning that, in accordance with the rules, a volume of 21,341,565 nEZ26 – approximately double the previous volume – was once again auctioned off. A total of 106 bidders took part, of whom 105 were successful.

Due to the high bid volume of 358,286,810 allowances and a cover ratio of 33.58, bidders were only awarded 5.96 per cent of their bid volume.

As things stand, it is expected that in the remaining auctions the allocation rate will tend towards 5 per cent, and in the final auctions may even fall below this, in each case at the maximum price of 65.00 euros. If only a further eight auctions were to take place, it would theoretically be possible to cover approximately half of the compliance requirement for 2026, provided one had participated in all auctions from the outset.

Another option would be to submit a bid for 20 times the required quantity, in order to cover 100 per cent of one’s requirements in an auction with a 5 per cent allocation rate. However, as the exchange requires a security deposit of 100 per cent of the bid volume, only a few market participants are likely to be able to do this from their own liquidity, even though the excess amount would be available again the following day.

Assuming that the compliance requirement in 2026 will be around 300 million allowances and that 21 million were acquired, it can be assumed that some companies will adopt this strategy and that speculative market participants will also bid, intending to sell the allowances profitably on the secondary market; this explains the total bid volume of 358 million.

Last week, the German government also published its draft bill to amend the Fuel Emissions Trading Act. According to this, the price corridor is to remain between 55 and 65 euros in 2027 and will not be based on the price of EUAs, as originally stipulated.

The price for the top-up purchase of allowances after the end of the auction phase is set to rise by 5 euros next year, from 68 euros to 73 euros. The 10 per cent top-up option can then be exercised in 2028 for nEZ27 at a price of 75 euros, which also represents an increase of 5 euros compared with this year.

After Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran to be over in one of his angry rants, there was movement in prices on the energy market and consequently also in the EU ETS1. Just as prices for gas, oil, petrol and diesel rose on the exchanges, EUA prices fell back below the 80-euro mark and closed just above the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at 79.15.

As so-called ‘early auctions’ for the EU ETS2 are due to take place on the Leipzig-based EEX as early as the beginning of next year, and the December 2028 EUA2 contract has shown no movement in recent weeks, we have promptly replaced this contract with the December 2027 contract in our price table, as we believe this will provide a better indication of price trends.

This week, a total of 9,452,500 EUAs will be put up for auction on the EEX over four days.

Instrument	03/07/26	10/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	80.60 EUR	79.20 EUR	-1.10 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	71.00 EUR	66.55 EUR	-2.34 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	56.33 GBP	56.40 GBP	+0.07 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	114.55 GBP	122.56 GBP	+7.95 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	72.38 USD	75.50 USD	+3.12 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1437 USD	1.1414 USD	-0.0023 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Wednesday, the first auction in the German national emissions trading scheme for allowances with the year code 2026 took place on the European Energy Exchange, with a price range of 55–65 euros.

A total of 10,671,000 nEZ26 allowances were offered for auction, with bids received for a total volume of 291.7 million allowances, representing a 27-fold oversubscription.

As most bids were submitted at a price of 65 euros, the auction closed at this price and the 65-euro rule came into effect, resulting in a total of 21,341,599 nEZ26 being allocated, which correspondingly reduced the total auction volume of 192.1 million allowances. A total of 101 bids were submitted; two bidders who had bid less than 65 euros walked away empty-handed.

In this respect – and this is how it appears following the non-representative first auction – if the subsequent auctions also conclude at a price of 65 euros, the number of remaining auctions will be halved, meaning that a further 10 auction dates could be expected.

The low number of just 101 bidders also indicates that many companies subject to trading obligations have adopted a wait-and-see approach for the time being.

Next Wednesday, a further 10,671,000 nEZ26 allowances will be offered on the EEX. It will be interesting to see whether the number of bidders increases or decreases and whether there will be a higher number of bids below 65 euros.

In the EU ETS1, prices are tending to be cautious due to a lack of fundamental data, with all eyes on 15 July, when the European Commission is due to present its reform proposals for the EU ETS1.

Consequently, EUA prices in the benchmark contract fluctuated between 78.31 and 80.75 euros last week. After a technical pennant pattern had formed last week, the price broke out upwards at the apex of this chart formation, meaning the last trading week ended with a small gain of 0.4 per cent.

This week, a total of 10,832,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX across all five trading days.

Instrument	26/06/26	03/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	80.28 EUR	80.60 EUR	+0.32 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	71.00 EUR	71.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	n/a EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	57.15 GBP	56.33 GBP	-0.82 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	106.00 GBP	114.55 GBP	+8.55 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	72.12 USD	72.38 USD	+0.26 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1383 USD	1.1437 USD	+0.0054 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Today marks the launch of mandatory CO₂ emissions trading in Vietnam as well. In its first phase, this will involve a total of 110 installations subject to trading. This means there are now over 50 countries worldwide with direct carbon pricing.

In the Americas, these include California – which is linked to the system in Quebec, Canada – the US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the Cap-and-Invest programme in Washington; greenhouse gas emissions are also subject to pricing in Mexico.

In Asia, emissions trading schemes are in place in countries including China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and South Korea. Australia and New Zealand have also introduced carbon emissions trading systems.

In Europe, the EU ETS has been in place since 2005; there are also carbon trading schemes in the UK, Switzerland and Montenegro.

Furthermore, countries such as Russia, Turkey, Colombia and Brazil are developing national emissions trading schemes. Argentina, Chile, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and further US states are also planning to use CO₂ trading schemes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The claim frequently made in recent months that only Europe puts a price on greenhouse gas emissions is therefore completely false and is based on sheer ignorance or deliberate misrepresentation.

Last week, the Leipzig-based energy exchange EEX published an updated auction calendar for the current year. Under this schedule, 2,817,500 EUAs will be auctioned from the EU’s allowances in each auction up to the end of August, and 3,699,000 EUAs in each of the remaining auctions of the year.

The German auctions, which currently offer 1,000,000 EUAs per week, will increase to 2,596,000 EUAs from September onwards. Poland’s fortnightly auctions will rise from the current 1,380,000 EUAs to 2,797,000 EUAs from September.

This week, a total of 9,453,000 EUAs will be put up for auction on the EEX over four trading days; the Polish Wednesday auction of 1,380,000 is scheduled to be omitted.

Despite the negotiations between the US and Iran and the resulting ceasefire, mutual attacks have intensified once again, even though neither side is likely to have much interest in further escalation. The US costs alone already amount to 40 billion US dollars.

Consequently, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key issues on the global markets for fossil fuels, which is consequently also affecting prices in the EU ETS.

This Wednesday, the first auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme will take place within a price range of 55.00 to 65.00 euros. The buy orders we have received alone already indicate that participants are targeting the upper end of the price range in order to maximise their chances of a successful bid.

The auction will take place between 1.00 pm and 3.00 pm. Once the auction results have been received, we will promptly inform our participating clients of the outcome via a trading confirmation.

Although the allocation results will only be partially transferable to subsequent auctions, they do at least provide an initial interesting indication.

Instrument	19/06/26	26/06/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	80.58 EUR	80.28 EUR	-0.30 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	71.00 EUR	71.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	60.46 GBP	57.15 GBP	-3.31 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	110.32 GBP	106.00 GBP	-4.32 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	77.89 USD	72.12 USD	-5.77 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1470 USD	1.1383 USD	-0.0087 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Shortly before the announcement of the reform plans for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS1), around 40 industrial groups called on the European Union to take action and demanded that EU Council President António Costa and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen take “decisive action to halt the escalation of costs within the emissions trading system”.

The signatories to the letter included steel groups such as Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal, and chemical companies such as BASF and Evonik. They warn that rising costs within the EU ETS1 could lead to so-called ‘carbon leakage’ – that is, the migration of industry to countries with lower or no pricing of greenhouse gas emissions – at a time when the European economy is already weakened.

Other companies, such as Saarstahl, which have already invested heavily in decarbonisation, warn against weakening the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, as do the German IG Metall trade union and the energy sector. The BDEW (Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industries), which represents around 2,000 companies, is calling for the EU ETS1 to be further developed and for its climate protection impact to be safeguarded. The EU ETS1 must not be weakened in the course of the upcoming reform. An excessive reduction in the existing linear reduction factor jeopardises planning certainty, investment incentives and the environmental integrity of the system.

Furthermore, the BDEW’s position is that the Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), free allowances and electricity price compensation must all be further developed in such a way as to prevent carbon leakage, enable industrial electrification and, at the same time, maintain the CO₂ price signal.

The European Commission therefore faces the difficult task, by mid-July, of translating this complex situation – with its differing perspectives – into a reform proposal that continues to promote climate protection through decarbonisation whilst not unnecessarily jeopardising the competitiveness of European industry.

On Saturday, Iran made a surprise announcement that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a toll should there be no final agreement, in order to be compensated for the US’s role as the region’s ‘guardian angel’.

Consequently, the situation in the Middle East will remain the most significant price driver in the energy sector this week, although EUAs are also keeping a close eye on 15 July, when the reform proposals for the EU ETS¹ are due to be announced.

Following Donald Trump’s unexpected signing of the agreement between Iran and the US at the Palace of Versailles, prices for fossil fuels fell significantly last week, whilst EUAs rose by 4.4 per cent on a closing price basis, ending the week above the 80-euro mark.

This week, a total of 11,975,500 EUAs will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX).

Instrument	12/06/26	19/06/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	77.17 EUR	80.58 EUR	+3.41 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	70.50 EUR	71.00 EUR	+0.50 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	55.88 GBP	60.46 GBP	+4.58 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	121.21 GBP	110.32 GBP	-10.89 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	82.58 USD	77.89 USD	-4.69 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1568 USD	1.1470 USD	-0.0098 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The European Union (EU) has adopted stricter measures for market intervention in the emissions trading scheme for transport and buildings (EU ETS2), which is due to begin in 2028. If the price for emitting one tonne of carbon dioxide rises above 45 euros, 40 million additional allowances are to be released from the market stability reserve in future, doubling the previous total.

This can happen twice a year, meaning the total amount could reach up to 80 million EUA2. Smaller quantities can now already be released if the number of emission allowances in free circulation falls below the 260 million mark. The previously planned rule was for up to 100 million EUA2 if the volume in circulation fell below the 210 million allowance mark.

The Member States and the European Parliament still have to approve this rule; the December 2028 future reacted with a gain of 4.4% or three euros, rising back above the 70-euro mark.

Last Friday, the EU’s economic and finance ministers also reached a common position on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The mechanism, which has been in force since January and covers in particular raw and basic materials such as aluminium, steel and cement, is now to be extended to machinery consisting predominantly of aluminium or steel. This is intended to protect European industry from the burdens of the EU ETS compared to countries that levy no or significantly lower prices on greenhouse gas emissions. The Council of Europe and the European Parliament are now set to introduce the relevant regulations.

From 1 July 2026, weekly auctions for allowances with the 2026 year code will take place every Wednesday in the German national emissions trading scheme. In order to participate in these auctions, an extension of membership for the regulated market on the EEX is required, in addition to the existing membership. In addition, the technical transition will take place, which is why we will not be able to participate in the fixed-price auctions for 2025 allowances on behalf of our clients on 16 and 23 June 2026. The next auction participation will therefore be on 30 June 2026.

On a weekly closing price basis, EU emission allowances went into the weekend virtually unchanged. Developments in the Iran conflict regarding the Strait of Hormuz are also expected to remain a key price driver this trading week.

In the EU ETS1, a total of 10,595,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over four trading days this week.

Instrument	05/06/26	12/06/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	76.94 EUR	77.17 EUR	+0.23 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67.50 EUR	70.50 EUR	+3.00 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	55.53 GBP	55.88 GBP	+0.35 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	123.45 GBP	121.21 GBP	-2.24 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	85.63 USD	82.58 USD	-3.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1523 USD	1.1568 USD	+0.0045 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team