Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (13/01/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

On Wednesday, an expert hearing on the TEHG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act) will take place in the German Bundestag, which will focus on the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS II in 2027 for the building and transport sectors and the associated transition of national emissions trading to European trading.

In this context, at the end of November, the Bundesrat (Federal Council) had submitted a proposal to auction national emission certificates at a fixed price of EUR 65.00 per tonne on the EEX in 2026 as well. The current BEHG (Fuel Emissions Trading Act) stipulates that the fixed-price phase will expire next year and auctions should take place in a price range of EUR 55.00 to EUR 65.00.

Since the obligated companies would have to submit emission reports for EU ETS II by 30 April 2025 in order to implement the EU requirements, this deadline has now been suspended because the TEHG amendment has not yet been adopted. A new deadline is unknown at the moment.

Last year, the German government received a total of €18.5 billion (previous year: €18.4 billion) through CO2 emissions trading. These revenues are channelled entirely into the KTF (Climate and Transformation Fund). Auction revenues in the EU ETS amounted to EUR 5.5 billion (previous year: EUR 7.7 billion), while national emissions trading (nEHS) generated EUR 13 billion (previous year: EUR 10.7 billion).

The decline in the EU ETS is mainly due to the significantly lower average price of EUR 65.00 (2023: EUR 83.66) for emission allowances. The increase in revenue in the nEHS was due, on the one hand, to the rise in prices from EUR 30.00 to EUR 45.00 and, on the other hand, to the reduction in the number of emission rights to 85 million in 2024 (previous year: 92 million EUA).

Last week, prices in the EU ETS were 1.4% lower than in the previous week, due to profit-taking after the rise in the previous weeks and the weakening market environment in the energy sector.

After the auctions on the EEX started again last week, 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned this week, which corresponds to an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous week.

Dear readers, up to now, we have indicated the prices for wholesale quantities of voluntary emission rights (VER) in our stock market prices listed below. However, as these have proven to be of little significance in the real trading of CO2 certificates, we will now show you the general market environment. Instead, you will now find the price development of British emission rights (UKA / United Kingdom Allowances) and gas (UK natural gas) alongside the prices for Brent Crude Oil and the exchange rate for the euro to the US dollar, which have been shown for years.



  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
       
Instrument03/01/2510/01/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)75.94 EUR74.85 EUR-1.09 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))36.61 GBP34.88 GBP-1.73 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)117.34 GBP112.56 GBP-4.78 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)72.97 USD74.27 USD+1.33 USD
EURO (Forex)1.0307 USD1.0242 USD-0.0065 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (06/01/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The old year seems to have flown by and here we are in 2025.

But what’s new in the field of carbon emissions trading? The price per tonne of CO2 in the national German emissions trading scheme has risen from 45 to 55 euros net, an increase of 22.22% after a 50% increase in the previous year.

In addition, due to the new elections in Germany on 23 February 2025, the start of auctions in national emissions trading has been postponed from mid-January to the second quarter of 2025; it will probably not be possible to participate in an auction here before May. We will keep you informed.

In the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), however, auctions will resume tomorrow and a total of 10,170,500 EUAs from the contingents of the EU, Poland and Germany will be auctioned on all remaining trading days this week.

But there is also a lot going on in emissions trading outside the EU. Dubai is introducing a digital platform for aviation emission certificates (CORSIA) and since the United Arab Emirates also wants to be climate neutral by 2050, a reporting requirement will come into force in May for companies that emit more than 500,000 tonnes of CO2. This is intended to be a preliminary stage for an emissions trading system that follows the EU’s cap-and-trade mechanism.

In the aforementioned election campaign in Germany, some parties want to blame the miserable economic situation in Germany on climate protection. Professor Ottmar Edenhofer, climate economist and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), has clearly shown that this is not the case.

In an interview with the Neue Osnabrucker Zeitung, he explained that a quarter of all global emissions are already priced and that 30% of the world’s regions have managed to decouple their economic growth from emissions growth.

In the new year, prices for greenhouse gas emissions in the EU ETS rose significantly again. Based on the weekly closing prices, the benchmark future for December 2025 rose by a further 6% over the four trading days, with EUAs managing to return above the 75-euro mark.

The reasons for this included a rise in the gas price due to the alleged intentional destruction of the Estlink2 power cable and the restart of auctions this week on the EEX.

If you need the year-end-quotes 2024 for your bookkeeping, you can find it on our website.

      (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument27/12/2403/01/25Change
EUA (December-2025-Future)71.56 EUR75.94 EUR+4.38 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.40 USD-0.04 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.44 USD+0.04 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR55.00 EUR+10.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.80 USD76.88 USD+3.08 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0421 USD1.0307 USD-0.0114 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (30/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Supplying industry and consumers with affordable energy is already an important topic in the German election campaign, with the parties sometimes far apart in their views on the type of energy generation. After the coal phase-out in the UK a few weeks ago, the option of nuclear energy is also appearing in some election programmes.

Globally, nuclear energy is growing again after many years of decline. According to forecasts by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the number of nuclear reactors worldwide is expected to more than double from 413 at the end of last year to 950 by 2050, and capacity is expected to increase from 372 gigawatts to 950 gigawatts.

There are currently 59 new nuclear reactors under construction, 24 of which will generate energy in China alone. And many other countries, including the US, the UK and Japan, want to triple their nuclear energy production by 2050. German neighbouring countries the Netherlands and Belgium have postponed their phase-out, and Poland is considering entering the nuclear energy market.

In the future, so-called new ‘small modular reactors’, or SMRs for short, are also to be used. These are small nuclear power plants that, among other things, can be transported and interconnected as needed.

Technology companies such as Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon are backing nuclear energy in order to obtain both low-cost electricity and to be able to meet their climate protection targets.

It is therefore difficult to imagine that Germany, as an industrialised country, can avoid this topic, because the industrial electricity price in particular is a frequent cause for the relocation of production.

Whatever the future government in Berlin looks like, there will certainly be debates about re-entering the nuclear energy market, weighing up the opportunities for faster greenhouse gas reduction and the risks of the final storage problem of the fuel rods.

However, it is rather unlikely that the increased use of nuclear energy will have a major impact on prices in carbon emissions trading, since the market stability reserve would take effect in the event of a significant oversupply of emission allowances.

In the Christmas week, the prices of emission rights continued to show a bullish trend and visibly exceeded the 70-euro mark with a weekly gain of almost 5%.

The closing price on Friday was close to a resistance line, and it remains to be seen whether this will hold or whether the price will continue to perform bullishly around the turn of the year.

We wish you a happy new year 2025!

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument20/12/2427/12/24Change
EUA (December-2025-Future)68.20 EUR71.56 EUR+3.36 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.56 USD0.44 USD-0.12 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.45 USD0.40 USD-0.05 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.11 USD73.80 USD+0.69 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0429 USD1.0421 USD-0.0008 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (23/12/2024)

Ladies and gentlemen,

Last Tuesday, a group of Eastern European EU member states called for the entry into force of the EU ETS 2 for the buildings and transport sector to be postponed, as they fear social and economic consequences.

The politicians led by Czech Environment Minister Petr Hladik (EPP) expect petrol and diesel prices to rise by several dozen cents when it comes into force at the beginning of 2027.

The Alliance argues that a postponement by one year to 2028 would lead to greater acceptance and could also reduce market volatility, which would mean a reduction in the social impact. Some countries are even calling for a three-year postponement.

The market stability reserve, which would be used if prices were too volatile, should also be worth discussing.

In addition to the Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia and Latvia are said to be open to such plans and France has also declared partial flexibility in this regard.

However, the EU Commission clearly spoke out against changes.

Last week, the previous benchmark contract for EUA December 2024 futures expired and the December 2025 contract has now taken over its function.

After prices trended significantly southwards on the first two trading days of last week, this trend came to a halt on Wednesday and, under the support of bullish gas prices, EUAs rose significantly on the last two trading days, closing the week with a price gain of 2.6%.

Interestingly, the support line at just under EUR 65 held and the 200-day line is now the next resistance level, currently at EUR 69.01.

As there will be no auctions in the EU ETS on the Leipzig EEX until January 16, 2025, pricing will now be determined entirely by fundamental news, the market environment and chart technology.

In addition, it has often been the case in recent years that institutional investors are still buying, which would give prices a bullish impetus.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument13/12/2420/12/24Change
EUA (December-2025-Future)66.47 EUR68.20 EUR+1.73 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.56 USD+0.16 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.45 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)74.56 USD73.11 USD+1.45 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0497 USD1.0429 USD-0.0068 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (16/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In 2027, Germany’s national emissions trading under the Fuel Emissions Trading Act is to be transferred to the new second European Emissions Trading System EU ETS 2.

Now, the European Commission has set a quantity of 1,036,288,784 emission allowances for the buildings and transport sectors in relation to the 2027 cap. Here, too, an allowance represents the right to emit one tonne of CO2 with fossil fuels. No figures have yet been set for 2028.

According to the Commission, these 1.04 billion tons correspond to the average CO2 emissions in the priced sectors in the EU in 2016-2018. For 2028, the average emissions from 2024-2026 will be used as the baseline.

Buildings equipped with photovoltaic systems and/or heat pumps will therefore have significantly less to contribute under the EU ETS 2 carbon pricing system, and drivers of electric vehicles will also have a significant financial advantage.

Since the EU ETS 2 is expected to be particularly volatile in the first few months, it is advisable to work with a partner that has many years of experience in the EU ETS 1 and can recommend an appropriate optimal procurement strategy for the emission rights. Please feel free to contact us today if you will be participating in the EU ETS 2.

In the past week, EU ETS 1 emission allowances fell significantly in the run-up to the expiry of the December 2024 futures contract, losing almost 6% on a weekly closing price basis.

Today, the last auction of EU emission allowances (EUA) at the Leipzig EEX this year will also take place, with 3,428,000 certificates from EU stocks. 

Should the market remain bearish, we see support in the area of around 62.50, after which the 60-euro mark could provide market-psychological support. On the upside, the 200-day moving average is now a resistance level at 66.36 and just under 69 another resistance line.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument06/12/2413/12/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.31 EUR64.43 EUR-3.88 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.36 USD0.40 USD+0.04 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.46 USD0.44 USD-0.02 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)71.35 USD74.56 USD+3.21 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0568 USD1.0497 USD-0.0071 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team