Tag: Emissionshandel

Dear Sir or Madam,

On 15 May 2025, the German Advisory Council on Climate Change published its latest report on the progress and challenges of national climate policy. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the measures taken to date to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and analyses their effectiveness and the challenges that remain.

According to the report, significant progress has been made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Germany since 2020. Emissions have fallen by more than 35% compared to 1990. This reduction is mainly due to the expansion of renewable energies, improvements in energy efficiency and the decline in coal combustion.

Renewable energies have made a significant contribution to energy supply in recent years. In 2024, renewable energies accounted for around 46% of gross electricity consumption. Wind and solar energy in particular have established themselves as pillars of the energy transition. However, the report emphasises that the further expansion and integration of these energies into the electricity grid must be accelerated in order to achieve the climate targets.

Improving energy efficiency in various sectors, particularly in the building sector and industry, is highlighted as a key measure for reducing emissions. The report shows that significant savings can be achieved through energy-efficient renovations and the use of more efficient technologies. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed to exploit the full potential.

The transport sector continues to pose a major challenge. Despite some progress in the electrification of transport and the promotion of public transport, emissions in this sector have only fallen slightly. The report therefore calls for stronger measures to promote electric mobility, expand the charging infrastructure and create incentives for a shift to climate-friendly modes of transport.

The transport and buildings sectors are currently priced through the national emissions trading system in Germany and are to be transferred to the EU ETS 2 from 2027 for pricing on the free market.

Last week, Poland, in its capacity as chair of the EU Council of Ministers, spoke out in favour of postponing EU ETS 2 by at least one year and announced that it would otherwise apply for a derogation for Poland if the necessary majorities were not achieved.

Prices for emission allowances in EU ETS 1 were relatively volatile last week, trading in a range between 70.52 and 75.02 euros in the EUA benchmark contract. Prices are thus significantly higher than the 200-day line, which currently stands at 69.67.

However, on a weekly closing basis, they gained only 60 cents, as the closing price stood at 70.99 after rising sharply to over 75 euros on Friday.

As there is no significant resistance nearby, both a further rise and the possibility of profit-taking after the rise of the past weeks are possible.

A total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX this week, and due to Ascension Day, only 5,318,000 emission allowances will be auctioned on two trading days next week. 

Instrument	09/05/25	16/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.39 EUR	70.99 EUR	+0.60 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	77.71 EUR	79.16 EUR	+1.45 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	51.39 GBP	48.36 GBP	-3.03 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	95.06 GBP	96.12 GBP	+1.06 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	62.63 USD	63.70 USD	+1.07 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1250 USD	1.1164 USD	-0.0086 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last year, Germany imported fossil fuels worth €76 billion, mainly in the form of oil and natural gas. These energy sources are almost entirely imported.

Greater independence from these greenhouse gas-intensive fuels is therefore desirable from both a global political and economic perspective.

However, the German electricity grid must be made more flexible, even though it had to cope with 32.8% less electricity last year than in the peak year of 2017. Although it is significantly less vulnerable than the Spanish electricity grid, for example, thanks to redundant safety mechanisms, blackouts such as those experienced on the Iberian Peninsula last week cannot be completely ruled out.

The expansion of renewable energies poses a particular challenge. According to the photovoltaic industry association BSW Solar, growth of 17.5 gigawatts is expected this year, which would mean that PV would overtake coal-fired power generation.

Currently, plants with a capacity of 105 gigawatts are in operation in Germany, and according to the federal government’s plans, a total installed capacity of 215 GW is to be achieved by 2030.

According to BSW Solar, the five million PV systems installed last year alone reduced CO₂ emissions by a total of 50 million tonnes. If expansion doubles, approximately 100 million fewer emission allowances will be required annually in the German energy sector.

The prices for these emission allowances in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS I) ended last Friday’s trading week with a gain for the fourth week in a row. The benchmark contract closed the trading week with a gain of 3.5% just below the 69 euro mark, after resistance around 50 cents above that level proved stable.

After lower auction volumes on the European Energy Exchange in the last three weeks due to the holidays, a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned this week, representing an increase of 32.5% compared to the previous week.

Instrument	25/04/25	02/05/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	66.43 EUR	68.76 EUR	+2.33 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	47.46 GBP	49.63 GBP	+2.17 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	89.82 GBP	91.72 GBP	+1.90 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	64.40 USD	60.68 USD	-3.72 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1363 USD	1.1300 USD	-0.0063 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The development of carbon emissions from the German electricity mix can certainly be described as positive. While 764 grams of CO₂ per kilowatt hour of electricity were emitted in 1990, last year the figure was only 363 grams, less than half. Ten years earlier, in 2014, the figure was 559 grams, and in the previous year, 2023, it was 386 grams. In 2022, the figure was 433 grams, according to the German Federal Environment Agency.

This development is particularly linked to the expansion of renewable energies, but also to the significant decline in electricity consumption. While consumption stood at 479 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1990, the year of German reunification, it rose steadily to 583 TWh by 2017. However, since 2018, electricity consumption has fallen for the first time to 573 TWh. In the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, 2020, consumption reached a temporary low of 513 terawatt hours, followed by an increase to 529 TWh in 2021.

In 2022, the year the war in Ukraine began, however, there was another decline to 516 TWh, followed by a significant drop of 12% to 454 terawatt hours in the following year. This trend continued in 2024 with a further decline to 439 TWh, despite the significant increase in e-mobility in the transport sector and the increased use of heat pumps in buildings.

Since the peak in 2017, electricity consumption in Germany has fallen by a good quarter in the past year. Some people may be pleased about this, but such a sharp decline in electricity consumption is linked to a sharp decline in demand in industrial production, which could only be offset by rising inflation, as can be seen when comparing this with the development of gross domestic product.

Only a visible increase in German electricity consumption will signal a turnaround in the German economy and an end to the downturn.

This has a monocausal impact on total emissions and, consequently, on the price of European emission allowances, given that Germany is the EU’s largest economy.

From this perspective, emission allowances have rightly fallen from their high of over 100 euros per EUA to their current level of between 60 and 70 euros per tonne.

In the past trading week, which was shortened to four days, EUAs traded in a range between 63.61 and 67.63 euros in the December 25 benchmark contract and closed with a slight gain of 0.8% at 66.43 euros.

Due to the public holiday, only three auctions will take place at the EEX this week, from Monday to Wednesday, at which 8,563,500 EUAs will be auctioned. This represents a small increase of 5.74% compared to the previous week, in which only three auctions took place due to Easter Monday.

Instrument	17/04/25	25/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	65.89 EUR	66.43 EUR	+0.54 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	47.16 GBP	47.46 GBP	+0.30 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	98.39 GBP	89.82 GBP	-8.57 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.11 USD	64.40 USD	-0.71 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1372 USD	1.1363 USD	-0.0009 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Ships in Europe or those heading for European ports that are subject to the EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS I have been included in the pricing of greenhouse gas emissions since 2024.

Now, the member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have agreed on a global system of carbon pricing in shipping, according to which all ships will be required to use low-carbon fuel mixes from 2028. In addition, annually decreasing emission limits have been set until 2035.

The revenues are to be used to benefit developing countries in particular, and incentives are to be created for the use of palm and soybean oil as well as e-fuels.

Even if it is hard to believe, global shipping is only responsible for just under 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Last week, carbon emission allowances in the EU ETS I again showed high volatility due to the erratic customs policy of the incumbent US president. The EUA benchmark contract moved in a range of 60.07 to 65.33 euros, and both investors and taxable companies were able to take the opportunity to cover themselves at low prices.

As we wrote in our previous carbon market report, one could assume that Donald Trump would pull off another volte-face, which he did last week. He suspended a large proportion of the new tariffs for many countries for a period of 90 days.

Since he had previously issued a buy recommendation for stocks, which then reacted strongly bullish, it would be only logical for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate this with regard to insider information or even insider trading by the president or people close to him.

Trump also raised tariffs on China to 145%, to which Beijing responded with a countermeasure of 125% in total.

At some point, a voice of reason or capital seems to have penetrated to him, which is why he exempted smartphones, computers and semiconductor products on Saturday.

Today, Donald Trump will attempt to provide an explanation. Further developments in this confusing tariff dispute will be the main driver of movement in the global financial, commodity and energy markets this week, and we expect volatility to remain high.

On Good Friday, the German auction at the EEX will not take place, which is why a total of 11,809,000 EUAs will be auctioned this week.

In the following week, there will be no auction on Easter Monday, and since the Polish Wednesday auction will also be not available, the auction volume will be reduced to a total of 8,098,000 emission rights, the lowest weekly volume so far this year.

Instrument	04/04/25	11/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	63.82 EUR	64.82 EUR	+1.00 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	43.28 GBP	46.23 GBP	+2.95 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	97.98 GBP	94.18 GBP	-3.80 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	63.57 USD	62.50 USD	-1.07 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0964 USD	1.1361 USD	+0.0397 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The US government’s tariffs on almost all countries around the globe and the counter-tariffs announced by China last Friday have turned the financial markets deep red in the past week.

The Japanese Nikkei Index lost 7.30% last week, the DAX 7.24% and the Dow Jones 7.41%, with Friday alone accounting for 5.50%. The US technology index NASDAQ Composite was particularly hard hit, falling 8.55%, last Friday’s announcement of the Chinese counter-tariffs led to a loss of 5.82%.

In view of the current market situation, it is difficult to make a clear forecast for the coming weeks. Future market developments will depend heavily on geopolitical events and the decisions of central banks.

Even the US government’s special adviser, Tesla boss Elon Musk, spoke out in favour of abolishing all tariffs between the US and Europe, thus taking a clear stand against Donald Trump’s policies.

Since the last-named is extremely erratic and protests against his policies are visibly increasing in the US, it cannot be ruled out that he will make another U-turn in the not too distant future, which would lead to a corresponding counter-reaction by the financial markets.

And the commodity markets have also weakened considerably due to concerns about the global economy. Last week, Brent crude lost 8.69%, UK gas lost 6.67% and EU ETS I emission allowances fell by 7.24% on a weekly basis.

Depending on how the situation surrounding US tariffs and possible EU countermeasures develops, the extremely nervous financial markets and, consequently, the commodity and energy markets will move in the coming weeks.

For EUAs, this means that prices will also be restrained and that it looks like a good opportunity for companies subject to the levy to procure at least part of the required quantities of certificates. Because should the chaos created by Trump subside, with him sending signals of détente and celebrating a ‘deal’ for himself, corresponding counterreactions will not be long in coming on the markets.

This week, 3,245,500 EUAs from the EU will be auctioned off on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and 1,607,000 from Germany’s quota will be auctioned off on Friday.

Instrument	28/03/25	04/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	68.80 EUR	63.82 EUR	-4.98 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0,00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	44.59 GBP	43.28 GBP	-1.31 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	104.98 GBP	97.98 GBP	-7.00 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	69.62 USD	63.57 USD	-6.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0829 USD	1.0964 USD	+0.0135 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team