Dear Sirs and Madams,
At the beginning of the decade, the global market for voluntary greenhouse gas offsetting lost a significant amount of trust and trading volume, not least because there were several projects that had more than dubious benefits for the climate.
The year 2026 is now expected to mark an important turning point for the voluntary CO₂ market, which has been on the rise again since 2024. After a period of uncertainty, criticism and volatility, the market is now maturing. Companies are setting ambitious climate targets and investing more heavily than ever before. At the same time, integrity requirements are becoming more stringent, regulatory authorities are becoming more active, and high-quality certificates remain scarce. As a result, the market is not only growing rapidly, but also rewarding projects that deliver real and sustainable climate protection.
This development gained significant momentum in 2025: companies retired more certificates in the first half of the year than ever before, and investment in new projects tripled. Asia in particular is emerging as a driving force here. By 2026, the market will be larger, more credible, more competitive and more strategic than ever before.
Despite differing perspectives, analysts agree that the market for voluntary carbon credits (VCM) is growing very rapidly. Roots Analysis, for example, assumes a cautious but confident scenario. The forecast sees the market reaching around 1.7 billion US dollars in 2026 – only a slight increase compared to 1.6 billion US dollars in 2025. By 2035, however, the market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 38% to almost 47.5 billion US dollars.
Analysts at Modor Intelligence even predict a global market volume of more than 120 billion US dollars in 2030, with companies in North America being the largest buyers.
The focus is on verified, high-quality certificates for emission reductions and nature-based solutions. Over 6,200 companies are implementing scientifically based climate targets, thereby contributing to growth.
If your company would also like to participate in the voluntary market for CO2 certificates, we are available to advise you and offer an attractive portfolio with the most important standards, such as Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) or Gold Standard, at attractive conditions.
Prices for European emission allowances remained bullish during the trading week, which was shortened by the Christmas holidays.
EUAs rose by 1.1% last week, reaching a new high for the year of €88.88 on Wednesday.
This trading week is also shortened by the New Year, and we can currently expect trading to be rather quiet.
The Advantag team wishes you a good start to what we hope will be a healthy and successful new year in 2026!
| Instrument | 19/12/25 | 26/12/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-26-Future) | 87.05 EUR | 88.01 EUR | +0.96 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 74.74 EUR | 75.77 EUR | +1.03 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-26-Future (UK)) | 65.53 GBP | 67.09 GBP | +1.56 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future) | 72.08 GBP | 72.50 GBP | +0.42 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future) | 59.90 USD | 59.99 USD | +0.09 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1709 USD | 1.1772 USD | +0.0063 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team
