Month: March 2022

Dear Madam or Sir,

Russia’s war against Ukraine was also the dominant topic on the financial, energy and commodity markets last week.

Even if you could see it in Germany’s Economics Minister Habeck, he has entered into a long-term energy partnership with Qatar, in particular for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the coming years. Qatar is one of the world’s most important producers of liquefied natural gas. And so that at least a slight green can be seen, Habeck emphasized that the agreed partnership not only includes liquid gas, but also the expansion of renewable energies combined with further energy efficiency measures.

The German federal government thus intends to reduce the share of gas from Russia to around 30 percent by the end of 2022. By early April, the Russian share is expected to drop by 15 percent to just 40 percent.

US President Joe Biden, together with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, also announced increased deliveries of liquid gas from the USA to the EU in Brussels. By 2030, Europe should have continued demand for additional LNG of at least 50 billion cubic meters per year from the US, equivalent to a third of the volume of Russian gas currently coming to Europe. US imports are expected to replace a tenth of Russian imports this year. In addition to the USA, the EU Commission is also negotiating with Qatar, South Korea, Azerbaijan and Japan.

In order to diversify supplies, the EU Commission is also in contact with countries such as Qatar, Azerbaijan, Japan and South Korea. The federal government wants to reduce the share of Russian gas in Germany to about 30 percent by the end of the year. By the end of this month, the share should be only 40 percent instead of the previous 55 percent.

With a view to the approaching end of the submission deadline at the end of the 17th calendar week, EU emission allowances could show bullish tendencies again, especially if there are signs of relaxation in Ukraine. From this point of view, it may be advisable to obtain at least some of the certificates that are still to be obtained for the compliance portfolio.

This week, regular auctions for a total of 12,786,000 EUAs will take place at EEX on all five working days.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	18/03/22	25/03/22	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	78.84 EUR	78.31 EUR	-0.53 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)	78.89 EUR	78.60 EUR	-0.29 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)	8.42 USD	8.95 USD	+0.53 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	8.00 USD	8.54 USD	+0.54 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	108.21 USD	119.31 USD	+11.10 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1091 USD	1.0981 USD	-0.0110 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. VCUs and VERs are average prices (CBL markets). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

The Federal Environment Agency, together with the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, has issued a press release on the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany in 2021. All in all, the figures show that after a strong decline in 2020, emissions rose again significantly, by a good 33 million tonnes or 4.5 percent.

The rise is particularly noticeable in the energy sector: This shows a plus of 27 million tonnes of CO2-equivalents, as more coal was used for electricity generation due to increased electricity demand, lower electricity generation from renewable energies and the higher price of gas. Electricity generation from renewables fell by seven per cent, mainly due to poor wind conditions.

German State Secretary for Climate Patrick Graichen commented: “The rise in greenhouse gas emissions has unfortunately been on the horizon. The German government will now quickly counteract this with an immediate climate protection programme. The key is a much faster pace in the expansion of renewable energies. We must manage to install three times as much capacity as before in order to increase the share of renewables in electricity generation to 80 percent by 2030. There must be no more of the kind of deadlock that we have seen in recent years. The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine has also made it dramatically clear to us how closely security and energy supply are linked. … The faster transition away from fossil energies must encompass all areas – from industrial production and buildings to mobility and agriculture. The decisive factor here is to maintain the social balance.”

Since 1990, emissions in Germany have thus fallen by only 38.7 percent. The target for 2030 is a minus of 65 percent. The available data show that since 2010, the energy turnaround in particular has contributed to the reduction of emissions. All other significant sectors have more or less stagnated since 2010. As a meeting of EU environment ministers last Thursday showed, a growing number of EU member states are willing to support a second emissions trading system for buildings and transport.

European pollution allowances saw a significant sideways movement in a range of 76 – 80 euros during the past trading week. At the end of the week, EUAs were even traded in their narrowest weekly range since the end of 2021, as the 80-euro mark apparently acted like a magnet and at the same time represented a stable technical resistance.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	11/03/22	18/03/22	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	76.38 EUR	78.84 EUR	+2.46 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)	76.39 EUR	78.89 EUR	+2.50 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)	7.32 USD	8.42 USD	+1.10 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	9.32 USD	8.00 USD	-1.32 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	112.40 USD	108.21 USD	-4.19 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0912 USD	1.1091 USD	+0.0179 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. VCUs and VERs are average prices (CBL markets). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Ladies and gentlemen,

With the war in Ukraine, Putin is showing the West how powerless it is, since NATO intervention in the war would undoubtedly lead to a further escalation, in which the use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out.

What is particularly absurd, however, is the fact that Europe, and above all Germany, has made itself dependent on Russian natural gas and oil with its current energy policy. With every third litre of petrol, diesel or heating oil and with every second cubic meter of natural gas, we help finance the warmongers.

A radical change in energy policy is therefore required to prevent such toxic dependencies. And this can only be done through the further expansion of renewable energies, which at the same time achieves the decarbonization of the economy and society.

But the war in Ukraine has not only raised the prices of energy over the past week, but also of all other commodities, not least food and metals, which is driving up inflation accordingly.

Exactly the opposite effect was seen in the emission allowances last week, which showed the largest slump ever recorded. While the December contract was still showing an opening price of EUR 95.00 per EUA when the war began on February 24, 2022, the price slipped to a low of EUR 55.00 last Wednesday, which corresponds to a loss of 42%. By the end of the week, prices stabilized above the EUR 60 mark and closed at above EUR 65 last Friday.

The main reasons for the sharp decline were institutional investors and energy companies, which had to obtain liquidity through the sales, and technical sales were also triggered by the crash.

Since no one can currently predict with certainty how the situation in Ukraine will develop this week, high volatility on the commodity and energy markets and in emission certificates can be expected in the coming days. This morning, the quote for EUAs is still under pressure and just above 60-Euro-mark.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	25/02/22	04/03/22	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	87.74 EUR	65.48 EUR	-22.26 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)	88.14 EUR	65.10 EUR	-23.04 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)	9.44 USD	5.45 USD	-3.99 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	10.27 USD	9.84 USD	-0.44 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	94.40 USD	118.03 USD	+23.63 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1272 USD	1.0931 USD	-0.0341 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. VCUs and VERs are average prices (CBL markets). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH