Month: May 2020

Dear Madam or Sir,

The German federal cabinet passed two important regulations last Wednesday to implement the Conciliation Committee’s decisions on the 2030 climate protection program. In December 2019, the federal government and the federal states agreed, among other things, to increase the CO2 pricing of fuels from the coming year, but in return to reduce the burden on electricity consumers and commuters. National emissions trading will therefore start at a fixed CO2 price of 25 euros per tonne in 2021, although this price level was only originally planned for 2023. In addition, the Federal Cabinet has passed a regulation that can be used to use income from national emissions trading to relieve the EEG surcharge.

According to the Federal Environment Agency, a gross price of EUR 25.00 per ton corresponds to 7 cents per liter of gasoline, 8 cents per liter of diesel, 8 cents per liter of heating oil and 0.5 cents per kilowatt hour of natural gas. By 2025, the prices of national CO2 certificates will now rise to 55 euros in the form of a fixed price. And from 2026 the price of the certificates will then be determined through auctions and the secondary market; a range of 55 euros to 65 euros per ton of CO2 is to apply in 2026.

The national German emissions trading system is being introduced in addition to EU emissions trading for large industrial plants and power plants, and records all fuel emissions that are not already subject to a CO2 price in EU emissions trading – regardless of the sector in which the fuels are used. Around 350 companies in particular will be affected by the trade, which put fossil fuels and heating agents on the German market.

The prices of allowances in EU emissions trading rose again visibly last week and, after the important 20-euro mark, also left the 21-euro mark behind. The ongoing recovery on the stock markets and the energy markets as well as the holiday auction-related reduced auction volumes supported price formation. Also this week, due to the Spring Brake Holiday, only 8.5 million EUA will be auctioned on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, and Whit Monday will also be canceled in the coming week, which is why only 13.9 million EUA will be auctioned.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	15/05/2020	22/05/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	19.47 EUR	21.32 EUR	+1.85 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	19.52 EUR	21.40 EUR	+1.88 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.32 EUR	0.30 EUR	-0.02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	32.86 USD	36.04 USD	+3.18 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0820 USD	1.0901 USD	+0.0081 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

although the extent of the global recession is still completely unknown, the energy market seems to be slowly recovering. For example, the International Energy Agency IEA sees a more relaxed situation for crude oil compared to the previous month. And the price recovery of the past few weeks seems to prove her right. For the current year, the IEA now calculates a drop in demand of just 8.6 million barrels a day; compared to the previous calculation, this is 0.7 million barrels a day more.

Analysts are now increasingly assuming that there could be a consolidation, particularly on the oil market, in which the well-positioned industry giants could emerge stronger and the number of competitors will decrease. In addition, production of shale oil and gas will continue to decline in the coming years due to the low market prices.

One of the global oil giants, Shell, published last week the result of an analysis of the price of the European CO2 emissions market in connection with the stated goal of being greenhouse gas neutral in Europe in 2050. Shell assumes that a price per EUA of EUR 200 is necessary to achieve the corresponding guiding effect through emissions trading.

The EUA was also stable last week, but still below the important mark of EUR 20.00 per tonne.

This week, due to the holiday, a total of 11.5 million EUAs will only be auctioned at two European and one Polish auction on the Leipzig electricity exchange EEX, Monday through Wednesday. There is no auction on the Friday bridge day or on Ascension Day. In the coming week, three auctions will only be announced due to the British Spring Bank Holiday, in which only a total of 8.5 million EUA will be offered.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	08/05/2020	15/05/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	19.27 EUR	19.47 EUR	+0.20 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	19.35 EUR	19.52 EUR	+0.17 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.32 EUR	0.32 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	30.96 USD	32.86 USD	+1.90 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0836 USD	1.0820 USD	-0.0016 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

Hardly anyone is happy about the restrictions that came with the onset of the Corona crisis. The majority of people are happy about the easing that has been announced in the past few days. That is understandable. The problem with this is that the danger, which appears more and more people very abstract, can trigger a second wave of infection, which in turn requires significantly stronger restrictions. Germany in particular has done a lot right in the past few weeks, as can be seen from the mortality rate and the occupancy of the intensive care beds. But now there is a risk that this advantage will be jeopardized, which poses significant economic and social risks. From the point of view of many scientists, a further two or three weeks with increased lockdown would have been necessary to bring the number of cases to below 300 per day, which would make it much easier to track infection chains.

Now, the number of cases per 100,000 citizens in cities and counties should decide whether easing the situation or allowing it to be withdrawn. There are currently four counties above the existing limit of 50, but more are just around the corner. In some counties, this could lead to more optimistic figures in order to secure jobs.

Regardless of this, there are people who adhere to the corona crisis as a conspiracy with truly crude theories. Most of them are also those who ignore anthropogenic climate change. It repeatedly shows clearly that both the global context and the simple logic of cause and effect are too complex for some people to be able to classify them correctly.

It is to be hoped that the majority of people will continue to abide by the hygiene rules so that a second wave does not require further restrictions, or only to a small extent, in order to keep the further economic damage and costs as low as possible , because only that can save jobs and prosperity.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	01/05/2020	08/05/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	18.90 EUR	19.27 EUR	+0.37 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	18.97 EUR	19.35 EUR	+0.38 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.32 EUR	0.32 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	26.52 USD	30.96 USD	+4.44 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0978 USD	1.0836 USD	-0.0142 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH