Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (29/08/2022)

Dear Madam or Sir,

one thing is certain – the year 2022 has the potential to show those with political responsibility what the consequences of unchecked climate change will be.

In addition to the drought in large parts of Europe, China is also affected by an extreme drought, which is associated with the longest heat wave since weather records. As a result, China’s largest freshwater lake, the Poyang, is in danger of drying up and many rivers are drying up as well. The power supply from hydropower has fallen by more than half and the industry is now suffering from energy shortages in the wake of Covid, with electricity already being rationed in some provinces. The consequences for the global economy in times of Corona and the Ukraine war are already noticeable.

The decline in greenhouse-gas emissions in the EU over the last three decades, which is around a third or 1.55 billion tons of greenhouse-gases, shows that European climate policy is bearing fruit.

Since three quarters of all man-made carbon emissions result from the burning of fossil fuels, the use of renewable energies in industry and buildings and the use of alternative drives in the transport and traffic sector is of crucial importance for global greenhouse gas reduction.

In a few years it will become clear whether the current trouble spots, such as the Ukraine war and the drought catastrophes in large parts of the world, are accelerating the shift towards global decarbonisation, or whether the burning of coal is to be stopped for temporary reasons of convenience and political intransigence as the most climate-damaging energy source, is not immediately reduced as soon as the energy crisis makes this possible.

Exchange-traded electricity prices on the spot and futures markets are currently climbing to alarming levels in Central Europe. The prices have meanwhile broken through the mark of 700 euros / MWh on the spot market and have therefore increased within a few months. On the derivatives market, the price of 1,000 euros / MWh for the EEX Phelix DE peak load Cal-2023 has already fallen.

Emission rights, which carried out the scenario of a correction below the 90-euro mark that we assessed as possible in the last market report, have decoupled from this in the past trading week. Should the price hold the support in the area of approx. EUR 88, a course above the EUR 90 mark would be the most likely possibility in the new week.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument19/08/2226/08/22Veränderung
EUA (Spot-Market)97:82 EUR90:03 EUR-7:79 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)98:01 EUR90:31 EUR-7:70 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)8:36 USD9:56 USD+1:20 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)4:09 USD4:21 USD+0:12 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)30:00 EUR30:00 EUR+0:00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)95:71 USD100:82 USD+5:11 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1:0202 USD0:9965 USD-0:0237 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (22/08/2022)

Dear Madam or Sir,

Russia has announced that it will undergo further maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline and will probably not deliver gas for three days from August 31, 2022 on, according to the Russian state-owned company Gazprom. Its European subsidiaries have now changed their name from Gazprom to SEFE, as announced earlier this month. The former Gazprom Marketing & Trading Limited is now called SEFE Marketing & Trading Limited and its subsidiaries no longer start with Gazprom, but with SEFE, which paradoxically is supposed to be the abbreviation for Securing Energy for Europe.

This renewed suspension of gas deliveries caused both gas and coal prices to skyrocket, followed by electricity. This rose to 570 euros per megawatt hour (German year-ahead-power), which industry and consumers are clearly feeling.

The high demand for climate-damaging coal energy ultimately also influences the demand for CO2 emission rights (EUA), which with an all-time high of EUR 99.22 in the December futures last Friday just missed the EUR 100 mark.

And on a weekly basis, the EUA gained more than 10% and closed the trading week just above the EUR 98 mark in the December futures contract.

It is difficult to predict how prices will develop in the coming week as EUAs are technically clearly overbought and a healthy correction into the sub-€90 area would be in order.

The course gets bullish support from the fact that in the new trading week only 4,421,500 EUA will be auctioned in Leipzig and the summer break with halved auction volumes will last until the end of the month. In addition, further rising energy prices could ensure that the EUA could test the 100 mark.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument12/08/2219/08/22Veränderung
EUA (Spot-Market)88.58 EUR97.82 EUR+9.24 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)88.87 EUR98.01 EUR+9.14 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)7.87 USD8.36 USD+0.49 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)3.97 USD4.09 USD+0.12 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)30.00 EUR30.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)97.87 USD95.71 USD-2.16 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.0257 USD1.0202 USD-0.0055 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (08/08/2022)

Dear Madam or Sir,

Quite a few who are currently on summer vacation on the German North Sea and Baltic Sea are happy about a lot of sun and rather atypical weather for local conditions. Others, such as farmers and foresters or inland waterway skippers on the Rhine River, are more concerned about the ongoing drought.

It is already clear that the summer of 2022 will continue the drought trend not only in southern Europe but also in Germany and even has the potential to overshadow the drought summer of 2018.

But not only in Europe it is hot, also in Siberia there were recently temperatures above 35°C in and around Yakutsk. This may not seem worrying at first, but there is the so-called permafrost soil, which naturally thaws at such temperatures. Gigantic amounts of dead plants are preserved in these soils. As these thaws, bacteria start the process of decomposing the organic remains, releasing vast amounts of CO2 and methane gas into the atmosphere, further accelerating climate change and in turn increasing the frequency of heat waves.

The fight against climate change requires the cooperation of large emitters, such as China and the USA. Even if the USA got its own climate-social package with a narrow majority of 51:50 votes through the Senate, the law still must go through the House of Representatives, where the Democrats have a larger majority. However, Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan not only snubbed China, but also led to the collapse of the US-China climate talks, which should not be underestimated in the global fight against greenhouse gas emissions.

In the past week, the prices for European CO2 emission certificates have risen by almost 8%, partly since the auction volume was halved in August and the efforts of EU ministers to reduce gas consumption by 15% by March 2023. Since this only works with the increased use of coal, despite the expansion of renewable energies, greater demand for EUAs from the energy supply companies is assumed, which is driving up prices. However, the significantly lower oil price was no reason to halt the rise.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument29/07/2205/08/22Change
EUA (Spot-Market)78.36 EUR84.49 EUR+6.13 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)78.55 EUR84.76 EUR+6.21 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)7.40 USD7.58 USD+0.18 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)2.98 USD3.43 USD+0.45 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)30.00 EUR30.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)103.70 USD94.42 USD-9.28 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.0227 USD1.0180 USD+0.0047 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (01/08/2022)

Dear Madam or Sir,

While in Europe, due to the seemingly endless war in Ukraine, environmental and energy policy balancing acts have to be mastered, the possibly most spectacular news in favour of climate policy reaches us from the USA.

US Senators Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer have introduced a long-awaited bill to combat climate change and promote clean energy programmes. The bill has 725 pages and is called the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022”. While the title points to reducing inflation as the goal of the bill, it would nevertheless be the largest and most aggressive investment Congress has ever made for climate action, with a planned $369 billion, and includes provisions to reduce US emissions by about 40% by 2030.

Lawmakers, climate change advocates and environmentalists, who had attacked Senator Manchin for his previous opposition to climate action, were thrilled by the surprise announcement. In fact, it would be a big win for the clean energy transition – providing financial incentives and tax credits for everything from manufacturing clean energy products and buying clean vehicles as well as promoting clean sources of electricity. President Joe Biden said the tax credits and investments in clean energy projects will create thousands of new jobs and help lower energy costs. That is why he urged the Senate to pass the bill as soon as possible. The Senate will vote on the climate change bill next week. Afterwards, it will be passed on to the Democrat-dominated State House.

Prices for European emission allowances have recovered a little from the previous week’s decline and found their way back to the 80-euro mark, especially on Thursday and Friday. Analysts continue to expect at least moderately higher prices, as the increased burning of coal as well as EU market reforms will offset the effects of the recent agreement on reducing the use of gas and because emissions from the power sector will also rise above the 2021 level. This fits with the news from several European utilities, which confirmed in their half-year results an increase in their fossil power generation covered by the EU ETS. Among other reasons, they cited declining hydropower production due to drought-like conditions on the Iberian Peninsula.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument22/07/2229/07/22Change
EUA (Spot-Market)76.36 EUR78.36 EUR+2.00 EUR
EUA (December-2022-Future)76.60 EUR78.55 EUR+1.95 EUR
VCU (Voluntary Carbon Units ø)8.07 USD7.40 USD-0.67 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)3.35 USD2.98 USD-0.37 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)30.00 EUR30.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)103.58 USD103.70 USD+0.12 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.0161 USD1.0227 USD+0.0066 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH