Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (24/02/2020)

Dear Sir or Madam,

the European pollution rights have become significantly more expensive for another week in a row, and in the second half of the week they started moving towards the 26-euro mark. Moderate but persistent optimism on the corona virus supported the markets, which was also reflected in oil prices.

During the weekend, however, there was alarming news of new infections from South Korea and Italy, which put into question the apparent easing signaled by China. In a globalised world, the spread of a new virus appears to be increasingly difficult to control.

As a result of this situation, the oil price fell by almost two US dollars over the weekend and pulled down the CO2 emission certificates at the start of trading this morning.

At the ICE in London the auction dates for the accumulated British EUA were announced as expected. In a rather relaxed rhythm of two to three auctions per month, this year, starting with around 5.7 million allowances on 4 March, a total of little more than 125 million EUAs will be auctioned in London on Wednesdays. However, this should not lead to additional price pressure, as the figures were known for a long time.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 14/02/2020 21/02/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 24.24 EUR 25.55 EUR +1.31 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 24.29 EUR 25.61 EUR +1.32 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.25 EUR 0.24 EUR -0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 57.34 USD 58.44 USD +1.10 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.0831 USD 1.0848 USD +0.0017 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (17/02/2020)

Dear Sir or Madam,

There are new records in the climate change category almost every day. The measuring station in Manua Loa, Hawaii, recorded an absolute maximum CO2 concentration of 416.08 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere – in February.

In addition, researchers had a new temperature record in the Antarctic a few days ago. Brazilian soil scientist Carlos Schaefer told the AFP news agency on Thursday that a temperature of 20.75 degrees measured on the northern tip of Antarctica on February 9. Schaefer said “There has never been such a high temperature in Antarctica” and that it is the first time that the 20-degree mark has been exceeded.

Last week, OPEC lowered its forecast for crude oil demand due to the corona virus and the associated weaker Chinese economic growth. OPEC assumes that there will be an oversupply of 570,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020. This initially caused crude oil prices to drop further, but a strong technical countermovement prevailed on the market, causing Brent crude oil to close at $ 2.84 a week.

In the course of this, the prices for CO2 certificates also increased significantly and set above the 24-euro mark. This week, the auction of 11.6 million EU emission rights is on the EEX trading calendar, next week it will be 5.3 million more EUA due to the Polish auction.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 07/02/2020 14/02/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 23.28 EUR 24.24 EUR +0.96 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 23.34 EUR 24.29 EUR +0.95 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.21 EUR 0.25 EUR +0.04 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 54.50 USD 57.34 USD +2.84 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.0944 USD 1.0831 USD -0.0113 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (10/02/2020)

Dear Sir or Madam,

in the north of Germany, the hurricane “Sabine”, has weakened and is now moving further south. As a result, some 20,000 households in Bavaria were cut off from the power grid this morning. Initial reports from the north and centre of Germany speak of injured people, destroyed houses and cars, closed motorways and massive disruption to rail and air traffic. Apparently, the highest wind speed of 177 km/h was measured on the Feldberg. Also, from England, Scotland and the Netherlands, where the hurricane was given the name “Chiara”, massive damages are reported. And the storm will probably continue to keep Europe in suspense in the coming days, causing considerable disruption with wind speeds of up to 150 km/h and heavy rain and snowfall.

At about the same time, the Argentinean Antarctic research station Esperanzan reports the highest temperature ever measured, at 18.3 degrees Celsius. This significantly exceeds the previous temperature record of 17.5 degrees from 2015. The melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Antarctic as a result of global warming is being watched with concern by scientists, as it is a major factor in the rise of sea levels worldwide.

A look at the price of CO2 emission rights shows a further decline in the past trading week. Weak economic data from Europe and significantly weaker demand from China initially pushed the price of crude oil further down for the week. Although news of a possible cutback in production volumes by the OPEC+ countries initially provided a short-term recovery, the uninterrupted spread of the corona virus is a significant burden on the market.

The price of European Pollution Rights followed the price of Crude Oil last week in a conspicuous manner and starts the new trading week weakened once again.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 31/01/2020 07/02/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 23.81 EUR 23.28 EUR -0.53 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 23.88 EUR 23.34 EUR -0.54 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.22 EUR 0.21 EUR -0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 56.62 USD 54.50 USD -2.12 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1090 USD 1.0944 USD -0.0146 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (03/02/2020)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The press has reported much less about “Fridays for Future” in the past days and months. It was also clear to Greta Thunberg and her colleagues that all the hype is over. But what remains in the end?

More than you could expect at the beginning. In all of the discussions, some of which are strongly polarized, a change has occurred in many areas. In addition to climate protection, which every major party in Germany now wants to prevent with the exception of the AfD, more and more people are considering the sustainability of their actions. Even the ADAC is turning away from its stance against a general speed limit, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

But more importantly – young people are becoming more political again and give climate protection a high priority. According to a study by the Federal Environment Agency presented last week, it is very important for 45 percent and rather important for another 33 percent. From the point of view of young people, environmental and climate protection also has a positive impact on social goals. For example, it is particularly important for 65 percent that future generations without adequate environmental and climate protection would be burdened by massive environmental problems.

The prices for CO2 emission allowances have decreased repeatedly in the past week compared to the previous week. Here Brexit does not allow bullish sentiment, even if the British only leave the European emissions trading system at the end of the year at the end of the third trading period. The British auctions should also start again at the end of March at the latest.

In addition, the significantly lower oil price, which is so worrying for OPEC that it is considering moving to its next meeting, together with weak gas prices, is putting pressure on prices.

The current trading week also starts in the red, although the technical indicators are currently bearish.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 24/01/2020 31/01/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 24.36 EUR 23.81 EUR -0.55 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 24.45 EUR 23.88 EUR -0.57 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.21 EUR 0.22 EUR +0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 60.50 USD 56.62 USD -3.88 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1025 USD 1.1090 USD +0.0065 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH