Tag: VER

Dear Sir or Madam,

Ships in Europe or those heading for European ports that are subject to the EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS I have been included in the pricing of greenhouse gas emissions since 2024.

Now, the member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have agreed on a global system of carbon pricing in shipping, according to which all ships will be required to use low-carbon fuel mixes from 2028. In addition, annually decreasing emission limits have been set until 2035.

The revenues are to be used to benefit developing countries in particular, and incentives are to be created for the use of palm and soybean oil as well as e-fuels.

Even if it is hard to believe, global shipping is only responsible for just under 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Last week, carbon emission allowances in the EU ETS I again showed high volatility due to the erratic customs policy of the incumbent US president. The EUA benchmark contract moved in a range of 60.07 to 65.33 euros, and both investors and taxable companies were able to take the opportunity to cover themselves at low prices.

As we wrote in our previous carbon market report, one could assume that Donald Trump would pull off another volte-face, which he did last week. He suspended a large proportion of the new tariffs for many countries for a period of 90 days.

Since he had previously issued a buy recommendation for stocks, which then reacted strongly bullish, it would be only logical for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate this with regard to insider information or even insider trading by the president or people close to him.

Trump also raised tariffs on China to 145%, to which Beijing responded with a countermeasure of 125% in total.

At some point, a voice of reason or capital seems to have penetrated to him, which is why he exempted smartphones, computers and semiconductor products on Saturday.

Today, Donald Trump will attempt to provide an explanation. Further developments in this confusing tariff dispute will be the main driver of movement in the global financial, commodity and energy markets this week, and we expect volatility to remain high.

On Good Friday, the German auction at the EEX will not take place, which is why a total of 11,809,000 EUAs will be auctioned this week.

In the following week, there will be no auction on Easter Monday, and since the Polish Wednesday auction will also be not available, the auction volume will be reduced to a total of 8,098,000 emission rights, the lowest weekly volume so far this year.

Instrument	04/04/25	11/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	63.82 EUR	64.82 EUR	+1.00 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	43.28 GBP	46.23 GBP	+2.95 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	97.98 GBP	94.18 GBP	-3.80 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	63.57 USD	62.50 USD	-1.07 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0964 USD	1.1361 USD	+0.0397 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The US government’s tariffs on almost all countries around the globe and the counter-tariffs announced by China last Friday have turned the financial markets deep red in the past week.

The Japanese Nikkei Index lost 7.30% last week, the DAX 7.24% and the Dow Jones 7.41%, with Friday alone accounting for 5.50%. The US technology index NASDAQ Composite was particularly hard hit, falling 8.55%, last Friday’s announcement of the Chinese counter-tariffs led to a loss of 5.82%.

In view of the current market situation, it is difficult to make a clear forecast for the coming weeks. Future market developments will depend heavily on geopolitical events and the decisions of central banks.

Even the US government’s special adviser, Tesla boss Elon Musk, spoke out in favour of abolishing all tariffs between the US and Europe, thus taking a clear stand against Donald Trump’s policies.

Since the last-named is extremely erratic and protests against his policies are visibly increasing in the US, it cannot be ruled out that he will make another U-turn in the not too distant future, which would lead to a corresponding counter-reaction by the financial markets.

And the commodity markets have also weakened considerably due to concerns about the global economy. Last week, Brent crude lost 8.69%, UK gas lost 6.67% and EU ETS I emission allowances fell by 7.24% on a weekly basis.

Depending on how the situation surrounding US tariffs and possible EU countermeasures develops, the extremely nervous financial markets and, consequently, the commodity and energy markets will move in the coming weeks.

For EUAs, this means that prices will also be restrained and that it looks like a good opportunity for companies subject to the levy to procure at least part of the required quantities of certificates. Because should the chaos created by Trump subside, with him sending signals of détente and celebrating a ‘deal’ for himself, corresponding counterreactions will not be long in coming on the markets.

This week, 3,245,500 EUAs from the EU will be auctioned off on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and 1,607,000 from Germany’s quota will be auctioned off on Friday.

Instrument	28/03/25	04/04/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	68.80 EUR	63.82 EUR	-4.98 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0,00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	44.59 GBP	43.28 GBP	-1.31 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	104.98 GBP	97.98 GBP	-7.00 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	69.62 USD	63.57 USD	-6.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0829 USD	1.0964 USD	+0.0135 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant increase in demand for electricity over the next three years. Global electricity consumption is expected to rise by four percent annually until 2027, due in particular to increased use in industrial production, the growing electrification of the transport sector and the significantly higher energy demand of data centres and artificial intelligence.

These are also important topics for the new German government, because a stable energy supply at internationally competitive conditions for companies, even in times of decarbonisation, will remain of central importance for Germany as an industrial location.

The right-wing conservative government of our neighbours in the Netherlands wants to build so-called Small Modular Reactors (SMR), mini nuclear power plants distributed throughout the country, including in the immediate vicinity of the German border. While large nuclear power plants have a capacity of more than 1,000 megawatts, SMRs are in the range of 300 MW.

Now, in Gelderland, which borders directly on the German Lower Rhine, several possible locations along the rivers in the area of Arnhem, Nijmegen, Tiel and Zaltbommel are being considered. The rivers there would have sufficient water to cool the SMR at all times. The first protests by local residents are now emerging.

However, the construction of these small nuclear power plants is also expected to take at least five years before they can be connected to the grid; the final decision on the location is not expected before 2027.

In the past trading week, EU emission rights suffered significant losses again in a weak energy environment, losing 7.3% based on the weekly closing prices. However, on both Thursday and Friday, a support line in the area around 72.50 curbed a further fall towards 70.

If this support holds in the current week as well, a recovery would be conceivable, provided that the entire energy environment also develops in this direction. Otherwise, the next support would be the 200-day line of the December 25 benchmark future at the current 70.98, the next technical resistance upwards in the area around 75 euros.

Due to the regular absence of the Polish auction on Wednesday, a total of 11,343,500 emission rights will be auctioned on all other EEX carbon trading days this week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	14/02/25	21/02/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	79.75 EUR	73.90 EUR	-5.85 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	46.71 GBP	40.66 GBP	-6.05 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	125.03 GBP	117.13 GBP	-7.90 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	71.87 USD	71.46 USD	-0.41 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0492 USD	1.0461 USD	-0.0031 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the German Bundestag passed the amendment to the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act, or TEHG for short. Now the reform only has to pass the Bundesrat, which is considered highly likely.

For the first time, shipping will now be gradually included in emissions trading. While in 2024 it was only 40% of emissions, this year it is already 70% and next year 100% of greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition, there are changes in the aviation sector, where the total emissions will be reduced more significantly by 2030, and other effects, such as condensation trails, will be included in the pricing due to their impact on the climate.

Emissions from waste incinerators, on the other hand, are to be regulated by the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) until 2027.

And with regard to the EU border adjustment mechanism, this year it remains only with the reporting requirement, only from next year onwards payments will be due in the CBAM (Carbon Borderline Adjustment Mechanism) for iron, steel, aluminium, cement, hydrogen and fertilisers, which will be based on prices in the EU ETS.

Due to the fact that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had brought up the possibility of linking the British emissions trading system with the European EU ETS, prices for British emission rights rose by a whopping 30.4% last week, and EU emission rights also recorded a further increase of 2.8% under this sign.

After an interim high of 84.50 on Thursday, the benchmark contract December 2024 fell back moderately to close the week just below the 84-euro mark.

In this trading week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on all five trading days, an increase of 2,072,500 EUAs or 18.3%.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	24/01/25	31/01/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	8.67 EUR	83.93 EUR	+2.26 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	35.12 GBP	45.81 GBP	+10.69 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	116.76 GBP	121.95 GBP	+5.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	73.31 USD	71.48 USD	-1.83 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0272 USD	1.0494 USD	+0.0222 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Today, Donald Trump begins his second term in the White House in Washington D.C. as President of the United States of America, and he has already announced his intention to end various climate and environmental protection laws. It remains to be seen what will actually be implemented. It will certainly be entertaining when you remember his first term in office and now he also has billionaire Elon Musk in tow and you instinctively wonder who is the boss here. Since both of them openly live out their narcissism, there are already bets on how long they will remain ‘best friends’.

Last Wednesday, the German Bundestag held a session in which the Energy Committee discussed the adaptation of the German Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (TEHG) to European guidelines (EU ETS II). The experts welcomed the adaptation, but called for more conformity with the EU.

Till Jenssen from the German Association of Cities emphasised the necessity of a sufficiently high CO2 price and targeted climate funding to relieve the burden on consumers. Michael Pahle from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research called the amendment a ‘historic step’ and highlighted Germany’s pioneering role.

The company representatives called for more planning security. Martin Kaspar from the Thüga-Aktiengesellschaft and Carsten Rolle from the Federation of German Industries emphasised the urgency of a rapid implementation of the amendment. Maximilian Rinck from the BDEW also advocated a rapid implementation of the changes.

Another point was the planned inclusion of waste incinerators in the emissions trading. Nadine Schartz from the Landkreistag (German County Association) and Holger Thärichen from the German Association of Local Utilities rejected this and called for a uniform decision throughout Europe.

Prices in the EU ETS I were noticeably bullish again last week, closing the week up 5.9% and just missing the 80-euro mark. During the course of Friday, this level was briefly exceeded with a high of 80.50, but by the end of trading, the price of the December EUA futures contract was unable to hold above the 80 mark.

This week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be offered at the European Energy Exchange EEX in the auctions, which will take place on all five trading days.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	10/01/25	17/01/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	74.85 EUR	79.26 EUR	+4.41 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	34.88 GBP	31.54 GBP	-3.34 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	112.56 GBP	117.96 GBP	+5.60 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	74.27 USD	73.80 USD	-0.47 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.0242 USD	1.0272 USD	+0.0030 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team