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Dear Sir or Madam,

In the mid-18th century, a decisive step in the Industrial Revolution began in Coalbrookdale in the west of England with the first coke-fired iron smelting. Between 1775 and 1779, the world’s first iron bridge was built there. Around 250 years later, the international community could have decided to end the use of fossil fuels as an energy source at the COP30 World Climate Conference in Brazil. However, as we know, this did not happen.

Instead, the conference ended with a minimal compromise: global greenhouse gas emissions are still to be significantly reduced in order to meet the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement. In addition, a ‘global implementation accelerator’ is to be created to support ambitious initiatives under the roof of the UN climate conferences. A key outcome concerns climate aid for developing countries: this is to be tripled by 2035, to an estimated 120 billion US dollars annually.

Germany is contributing one billion euros over ten years to a new tropical forest fund called the ‘Tropical Forest Forever Facility’ (TFFF), which was presented by the host country, Brazil. The fund is intended to reward countries that preserve their forests and mobilise billions for the protection of the rainforest in the long term.

In addition, a new climate alliance was launched in Belém: the ‘Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets’. The aim is to harmonise existing emissions trading systems worldwide, thereby making international trade more transparent and fairer. In addition to the EU, China, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Chile and Zambia are currently members of the alliance.

The new alliance increases pressure on countries that have so far refused to join, including the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, China is demonstrating the economic opportunities: in 2025, the country already generated higher revenues from the export of green technologies than the United States did from fossil fuels. A globally coordinated CO2 market could make emissions more expensive and accelerate investment in climate-friendly technologies. EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra described the coordination of carbon markets as a potential catalyst for the energy transition.

Prices for EUAs in the European Emissions Trading System (ETS1) moved within a significantly narrower price range last trading week than in the previous week. Despite the lower momentum and a rather weak second half of the week, the price remained slightly bullish. The lower limit was EUR 79.52, and the peak was EUR 81.89.

The auction calendar shows auctions on all five days this week with a total volume of 13,657,500 allowances. To purchase allowances from the German national emissions trading scheme (nEHS) for 2025, there are only four auction dates left this week and the next. The subsequent purchase under the 10 per cent rule will start on 13 January 2026.

Instrument	14/11/25	21/11/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	80.93 EUR	80.41 EUR	-0.52 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	70.15 EUR	69.67 EUR	-0.48 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	57.00 GBP	57.77 GBP	+0.77 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	82.39 GBP	78.56 GBP	-3.83 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	64.39 USD	61.84 USD	-2.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1621 USD	1.1514 USD	-0.0107 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The World Climate Conference in Brazil is now halfway through, accompanied by numerous protests by indigenous peoples and climate activists such as Fridays for Future.

COP30 is, of course, about the most important issue of all: financing climate protection. It remains unclear whether a breakthrough will be achieved in Belém. According to participants, the conference got off to an unusually harmonious start. The focus is on climate financing: by 2035, at least 300 billion dollars should be available annually, and in the long term even significantly more, mainly from private funds. Private investment will be of particular interest when corresponding CO₂ certificates are issued, which private sector investors can use to offset their unavoidable emissions.

The countries are discussing whether and how to make the phase-out of coal, oil and gas binding. Brazilian President Lula is proposing a global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, which, according to German State Secretary Flasbarth, is an important, albeit informal, aspect of the negotiations. Germany sees its coal phase-out plan as a possible model.

The ministers will negotiate in the second week. German Federal Environment Minister Carsten Schneider arrived in Belém at the weekend.

Due to the postponement of EU ETS2 by one year to 2028, the national emissions trading system in Germany will be extended by one year. The regulation currently applicable to this situation stipulates that the price of allowances in 2027 will be based on the volume-weighted average price of emission allowances (EUA) in the EU ETS1 in the penultimate quarter.

However, the German government now plans to apply the 2026 pricing to 2027 as well, i.e. the price corridor between 55 and 65 euros in the auction process. To do so, however, the necessary majorities must be found in the legislative process.

In the past trading week, prices in the EU ETS1 continued to move within the sideways-upward trend channel that began at the end of July, ranging between €78.91 and €82.79 in the EUAnbenchmark contract.

There are therefore good reasons to believe that prices will not leave the trend channel this week either, based on the daily closing price, which currently stands between €80 and €84.

A total of 13.7 million EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days this week.

Instrument	31/10/25	07/11/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	78.54 EUR	79.47 EUR	+0.93 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.41 EUR	68.49 EUR	+0.08 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	56.27 GBP	55.35 GBP	-0.92 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	80.87 GBP	81.15 GBP	+0.28 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	63.72 USD	64.77 USD	+1.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1537 USD	1.1565 USD	+0.0028 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

There are currently many important issues in the field of climate protection and CO2 emissions trading.

30th World Climate Conference in Brazil

Today, the 30th World Climate Conference begins in Belém, Brazil, on the edge of the Amazon region. This takes place exactly 10 years after the Paris Climate Change Conference, at which global warming was to be limited to 1.5°C through ambitious greenhouse gas reduction.

Ten years later, it is clear that the international community has already clearly missed this target and that the small blue planet is heading for a warming of 2.8°C by the end of the century, as the United Nations Environment Programme announced in the run-up to COP30.

In recent years, important decisions on climate finance have been taken at COP28 in Dubai and the 2024 Climate Conference in Baku. By 2035, developing countries are to receive 1.3 trillion US dollars annually from public and private sources, with at least 300 billion dollars earmarked as binding aid for particularly affected countries.

COP30 will once again focus on national climate targets, but not all countries have submitted their contributions for 2035. Another key issue is international climate finance. Many less wealthy countries criticise insufficient and non-binding aid commitments; the costs of adapting to climate change are also being negotiated.

Disputes are also expected over the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Brazil has prepared an ‘Action Agenda’ with six thematic blocks and 30 goals, including forest protection, energy transition and sustainable agriculture. The protection of rainforests plays a central role in this. Brazil plans to initiate a $125 billion fund for global tropical forest protection, financed by public and private funds. Many countries have already made concrete commitments worth billions, but Germany remains vague.

Postponement of EU ETS2 to 2028

In the run-up to COP30, the European Union agreed to postpone the start of the EU Emissions Trading System for the transport and buildings sectors from 2027 to 2028 and to intervene in the market if prices rise significantly above the initial maximum level of €45.

National Emissions Trading System in Germany

The postponement of EU ETS2 has a direct impact on national emissions trading in 2027, as the legal basis for how the auctions for national emissions allowances are to be priced in this case has already been established.

After a range of €55 to €65 is to apply in the auctions next year, the volume-weighted average price of the penultimate quarter will be used as the price for the auctions of CO₂ allowances in 2027.

For many companies subject to trading obligations, this poses a major challenge in terms of optimising their procurement strategy and hedging against significantly rising prices.

We are happy to support you with advice and assistance based on our many years of experience in European emissions trading (EU ETS).

Last week, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) also published the new auction calendar for 2026. The first auction day is 13 January 2026, when allowances with a validity year of 2025 can be purchased at a price of €55 under the 10% post-purchase rule. The last opportunity for post-purchases on the EEX is 17 September 2026.

Between July and October, regular auctions for 2026 nEZ are then scheduled to take place in the price range of €55 to €65.

EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS1

At the beginning of last week’s trading, EUAs broke through an important resistance line on their way to the €80 mark and also easily surpassed it last Tuesday. Over the course of the week, the bullish sentiment failed to gain further ground and EUAs ended the week below the €80 mark, but above the resistance line broken on Monday.

If the bears prevail this week, the next support level is just below €78. However, if the bulls push prices back above the 80 mark, the next relevant technical resistance would only be in the range above 83 euros.

This week, a total of 13,657,500 EUAs will be offered for auction on the EEX on all five trading days.

Instrument	31/10/25	07/11/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	78.54 EUR	79.47 EUR	+0.93 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.41 EUR	68.49 EUR	+0.08 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	56.27 GBP	55.35 GBP	-0.92 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	80.87 GBP	81.15 GBP	+0.28 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	63.72 USD	64.77 USD	+1.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1537 USD	1.1565 USD	+0.0028 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) covers direct emissions from the iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser, electricity and hydrogen sectors, as well as indirect emissions in industries without electricity price compensation (e.g. cement, fertilisers). This mainly affects raw materials, intermediate products and a few processed products. The European Commission is considering a possible extension to other areas.

Since October 2023, importers have been required to report their direct and indirect emissions to the EU Commission on a quarterly basis. From 2026, CO₂ certificates will be mandatory and must be submitted annually. The first certificate submission for 2026 will take place in 2027.

The aim of the CBAM is to create a level playing field for companies in the EU vis-à-vis third countries where there is no or lower pricing of greenhouse gas emissions.

The CBAM has now been significantly streamlined and small importers are no longer affected by it. According to the European Commission, the new regulation exempts around 90 per cent of the companies previously affected, as reported by the Federal Environment Agency.

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will now be simplified and limited to large imports of raw materials from outside the EU. Small companies with less than 50 tonnes per year will be exempt from the CBAM from 2026. This is intended to reduce bureaucracy and create fair competitive conditions, while at the same time meeting climate targets.

Prices for EU emission allowances remained virtually unchanged last week compared to the previous week. EUA prices moved within a relatively narrow range between €77.01 and €78.67 in the benchmark contract, between technical support and resistance levels.

It remains to be seen whether the EUAs will now break out of their previous upward trend to test the €80 mark again, or whether they will break through the current formation downwards and trend towards €76.

In national emissions trading, the final phase of purchases by obligated companies is now beginning, as the last auction for emission allowances with the annual identifier 2025 (nEZ25) will take place in just over a month. Further purchases at a price of €55 will only be permitted next year for a maximum of 10% of the quantity held in the company’s own registry account on 31 December 2025.

However, as technical problems, employee illness or other obstacles can never be ruled out, it is advisable not to wait until the last auctions and to proceed with procurement as soon as possible after making the best possible calculations.

Instrument	24/10/25	31/10/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	78.32 EUR	78.54 EUR	+0.22 EUR
EUA2 (December-27-Future)	62.59 EUR	65.85 EUR	+3.26 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	54.60 GBP	56.27 GBP	+1.67 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	83.29 GBP	80.87 GBP	-2.42 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.94 USD	65.07 USD	-0.87 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1627 USD	1.1537 USD	-0.0090 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team