News

Dear Sir or Madam,

There are currently many important issues in the field of climate protection and CO2 emissions trading.

30th World Climate Conference in Brazil

Today, the 30th World Climate Conference begins in Belém, Brazil, on the edge of the Amazon region. This takes place exactly 10 years after the Paris Climate Change Conference, at which global warming was to be limited to 1.5°C through ambitious greenhouse gas reduction.

Ten years later, it is clear that the international community has already clearly missed this target and that the small blue planet is heading for a warming of 2.8°C by the end of the century, as the United Nations Environment Programme announced in the run-up to COP30.

In recent years, important decisions on climate finance have been taken at COP28 in Dubai and the 2024 Climate Conference in Baku. By 2035, developing countries are to receive 1.3 trillion US dollars annually from public and private sources, with at least 300 billion dollars earmarked as binding aid for particularly affected countries.

COP30 will once again focus on national climate targets, but not all countries have submitted their contributions for 2035. Another key issue is international climate finance. Many less wealthy countries criticise insufficient and non-binding aid commitments; the costs of adapting to climate change are also being negotiated.

Disputes are also expected over the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Brazil has prepared an ‘Action Agenda’ with six thematic blocks and 30 goals, including forest protection, energy transition and sustainable agriculture. The protection of rainforests plays a central role in this. Brazil plans to initiate a $125 billion fund for global tropical forest protection, financed by public and private funds. Many countries have already made concrete commitments worth billions, but Germany remains vague.

Postponement of EU ETS2 to 2028

In the run-up to COP30, the European Union agreed to postpone the start of the EU Emissions Trading System for the transport and buildings sectors from 2027 to 2028 and to intervene in the market if prices rise significantly above the initial maximum level of €45.

National Emissions Trading System in Germany

The postponement of EU ETS2 has a direct impact on national emissions trading in 2027, as the legal basis for how the auctions for national emissions allowances are to be priced in this case has already been established.

After a range of €55 to €65 is to apply in the auctions next year, the volume-weighted average price of the penultimate quarter will be used as the price for the auctions of CO₂ allowances in 2027.

For many companies subject to trading obligations, this poses a major challenge in terms of optimising their procurement strategy and hedging against significantly rising prices.

We are happy to support you with advice and assistance based on our many years of experience in European emissions trading (EU ETS).

Last week, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) also published the new auction calendar for 2026. The first auction day is 13 January 2026, when allowances with a validity year of 2025 can be purchased at a price of €55 under the 10% post-purchase rule. The last opportunity for post-purchases on the EEX is 17 September 2026.

Between July and October, regular auctions for 2026 nEZ are then scheduled to take place in the price range of €55 to €65.

EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS1

At the beginning of last week’s trading, EUAs broke through an important resistance line on their way to the €80 mark and also easily surpassed it last Tuesday. Over the course of the week, the bullish sentiment failed to gain further ground and EUAs ended the week below the €80 mark, but above the resistance line broken on Monday.

If the bears prevail this week, the next support level is just below €78. However, if the bulls push prices back above the 80 mark, the next relevant technical resistance would only be in the range above 83 euros.

This week, a total of 13,657,500 EUAs will be offered for auction on the EEX on all five trading days.

Instrument	31/10/25	07/11/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	78.54 EUR	79.47 EUR	+0.93 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.41 EUR	68.49 EUR	+0.08 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	56.27 GBP	55.35 GBP	-0.92 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	80.87 GBP	81.15 GBP	+0.28 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	63.72 USD	64.77 USD	+1.05 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1537 USD	1.1565 USD	+0.0028 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) covers direct emissions from the iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser, electricity and hydrogen sectors, as well as indirect emissions in industries without electricity price compensation (e.g. cement, fertilisers). This mainly affects raw materials, intermediate products and a few processed products. The European Commission is considering a possible extension to other areas.

Since October 2023, importers have been required to report their direct and indirect emissions to the EU Commission on a quarterly basis. From 2026, CO₂ certificates will be mandatory and must be submitted annually. The first certificate submission for 2026 will take place in 2027.

The aim of the CBAM is to create a level playing field for companies in the EU vis-à-vis third countries where there is no or lower pricing of greenhouse gas emissions.

The CBAM has now been significantly streamlined and small importers are no longer affected by it. According to the European Commission, the new regulation exempts around 90 per cent of the companies previously affected, as reported by the Federal Environment Agency.

The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will now be simplified and limited to large imports of raw materials from outside the EU. Small companies with less than 50 tonnes per year will be exempt from the CBAM from 2026. This is intended to reduce bureaucracy and create fair competitive conditions, while at the same time meeting climate targets.

Prices for EU emission allowances remained virtually unchanged last week compared to the previous week. EUA prices moved within a relatively narrow range between €77.01 and €78.67 in the benchmark contract, between technical support and resistance levels.

It remains to be seen whether the EUAs will now break out of their previous upward trend to test the €80 mark again, or whether they will break through the current formation downwards and trend towards €76.

In national emissions trading, the final phase of purchases by obligated companies is now beginning, as the last auction for emission allowances with the annual identifier 2025 (nEZ25) will take place in just over a month. Further purchases at a price of €55 will only be permitted next year for a maximum of 10% of the quantity held in the company’s own registry account on 31 December 2025.

However, as technical problems, employee illness or other obstacles can never be ruled out, it is advisable not to wait until the last auctions and to proceed with procurement as soon as possible after making the best possible calculations.

Instrument	24/10/25	31/10/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	78.32 EUR	78.54 EUR	+0.22 EUR
EUA2 (December-27-Future)	62.59 EUR	65.85 EUR	+3.26 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	54.60 GBP	56.27 GBP	+1.67 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	83.29 GBP	80.87 GBP	-2.42 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.94 USD	65.07 USD	-0.87 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1627 USD	1.1537 USD	-0.0090 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The planned international agreement to introduce a CO₂ pricing system for shipping will not be implemented for the time being. The member states of the United Nations International Maritime Organisation have decided to postpone the vote on the agreement until a later date.

The decisive factor here was the position of the United States, which had exerted considerable pressure in recent days to prevent the project. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump expressed his opposition to the agreement on his online platform and threatened countries that would vote in favour of the agreement with sanctions and other punitive measures.

Last April, a majority of member states had already expressed their support in principle for the introduction of a CO₂ pricing system in international shipping. The proposed regulations were to apply from 2027 and affect large ships with a cargo capacity of over 5,000 tonnes, which account for around 85 per cent of total CO₂ emissions from international shipping.

The money collected in the system is to be channelled through a fund into research into new fuels and technologies and to support financially weak countries and small island states that are particularly affected by climate change. The fund could amount to ten to twelve billion dollars annually.

The project has the support of China, Brazil, the United Kingdom and the European Union, among others.

Prices for EU emission allowances traded in a range between €76.68 and €79.90 last week, but showed no significant ambition to break through the €80 mark. On a weekly closing basis, they fell minimally by 0.3%.

There will be no Polish Wednesday auction this week, which means that 2,162,000 EUAs, or 15.8% less than in the previous week, will be auctioned on the EEX. The volume on the remaining four days is therefore 11,495,000 emission allowances.

Instrument	10/10/25	17/10/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	79.68 EUR	79.46 EUR	-0.22 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	87.66 EUR	86.23 EUR	-1.43 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	55.53 GBP	56.46 GBP	+0.93 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	84.22 GBP	82.68 GBP	-1.54 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	62.73 USD	61.29 USD	-1.44 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1623 USD	1.1653 USD	-0.0030 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

In future, it will be permitted to reduce unavoidable CO₂ emissions by capturing and permanently storing them in the seabed. The German Federal Cabinet has passed two draft bills to create the legal basis for CCS (carbon capture and storage) technologies, as announced last week by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Protection, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.

The Cabinet’s decision has two objectives: Firstly, an amendment to Article 6 of the London Protocol is to be ratified so that Germany can export CO₂ abroad for storage. On this basis, bilateral agreements on the export of CO₂ can also be concluded. In addition, it will be possible in future to store CO₂ both in the German subsoil of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and on the continental shelf.

The Carbon Dioxide Storage Act, which was passed in August 2025, places a particular emphasis on the protection of marine protected areas: the injection of CO₂ under these areas and in an eight-kilometre-wide buffer zone is prohibited. The same applies to the so-called coherence protection area south of the ‘Sylt Outer Reef/Eastern German Bight’ nature reserve. Furthermore, the rock layers intended for storage must not lie below protected marine areas.

Industrial companies that can make use of storage benefit simply from the fact that they do not have to purchase emission allowances in the EU ETS for the quantities of CO₂ captured and stored via CCS and can, if necessary, sell allowances allocated free of charge at a profit.

Last week, EU emission allowances briefly exceeded the €80 mark on Monday and tested it again on Friday. On a daily closing basis, the EUAs in the benchmark contract were also unable to remain above this psychologically important mark. The trading range for the last trading week was between €77.90 and €80.37.

If the bulls prevail this week, the next relevant technical resistance level would be in the region of 83 euros. If the 80-euro barrier cannot be broken on a daily closing basis, the next support level would be in the region of 76 euros. Meanwhile, the 200-day line is at 71.93 and the 38-day line rose to 76.40 euros.

This week, 13,657,500 EUA will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX.

Instrument	03/10/25	10/10/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	79.16 EUR	79.68 EUR	+0.52 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	87.13 EUR	87.66 EUR	+0.53 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	57.02 GBP	55.53 GBP	-1.49 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	83.10 GBP	84.22 GBP	+1.12 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	64.53 USD	62.73 USD	-1.80 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1743 USD	1.1623 USD	-0.0120 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team