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Dear Sir or Madam,

The US President’s often-suspected unpredictability often makes him very predictable.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump made the 180-degree turn we predicted in our last market report and withdrew the threatened tariffs. In doing so, he once again solved a problem he himself had caused.

However, his erratic approach has caused great damage to transatlantic relations between the US and Europe due to the rapid decline in trust.

Meanwhile, unexpected developments are taking place in the European Union. In Germany, there is constant talk of the ‘firewall’ between the established parties and the AfD; in Brussels, the Greens and the Left Party have now joined forces with the AfD to put the Mercosur agreement on hold. And this at a time when Europe urgently needs new trade facilitation measures, as it must develop alternatives to the US.

After a year of Trump in office, the financial and energy markets did not react as strongly to his tariff threats last week as they did at the beginning of his term. In 2025, EUAs in the current benchmark contract fell from €86.99 on 30 January 2025 to a low of €61.69 on 9 April 2025, a drop of 25.3%.

Last week, EUAs opened at a weekly high of €91.30 on Monday and fell to a weekly low of €83.98 the following day. After Trump’s appearance in Davos, market participants relaxed again and the weekly closing price of €88.40 showed a decline of only 4.1%.

This means that EUAs are once again moving within the sideways-upward trend channel, and provided there are no further escalations from Washington, this trend channel should continue to apply.

This week, the Polish Wednesday auction doesn’t take place, which means that a total of 9,230,500 emission allowances will be auctioned on the EEX on the remaining days of the week, representing a decrease of 14.2% compared to the previous week.

Instrument	16/01/26	23/01/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	92.04 EUR	88.40 EUR	-3.64 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	75.05 EUR	76.71 EUR	+1.66 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	71.35 GBP	68.32 GBP	-3.03 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	75.80 GBP	77.32 GBP	+1.52 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	62.10 USD	63.35 USD	+1.25 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1599 USD	1.1829 USD	+0.0230 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

US President Donald Trump is escalating the situation once again and continues to insist on his demand that the US take over Greenland. On Saturday, he announced that all countries opposing this plan would be subject to 10% tariffs from February onwards. As the issue of Greenland is also controversial among Republicans, it will provide plenty of talking points in the coming days. At least Trump has achieved one thing – the Epstein files are no longer the focus of public attention.

On the other hand, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has signed the Mercosur agreement, which has been under negotiation for a quarter of a century and establishes a free trade area between the European Union and key South American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, significantly reducing the burden of customs duties. This will not please the US President at all, as it highlights the absurdity of his tariffs, which are driving up the cost of living, especially in the US.

Financial, commodity and energy markets do not usually react enthusiastically to tariff announcements, but since you never know what Trump will do next, he could once again make a 180-degree turn and postpone or completely abolish the tariffs. It cannot therefore be ruled out that the markets will react less hysterically this week than they did at the beginning of last year.

Last week, prices for emission allowances in the EU ETS1 rose by 2.8% compared to the previous week, breaking through the upward trend channel and closing just above the upper line of the trend channel at a price of €92.04 in the December 2026 benchmark contract.

It remains to be seen how the markets will now deal with Trump’s tariff blackmail.

A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX this week on all five trading days, which corresponds to the highest weekly volume in each of the first three quarters.

Instrument	09/01/26	16/01/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	89.56 EUR	92.04 EUR	+2.48 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	76.98 EUR	75.05 EUR	-1.93 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	69.02 GBP	71.35 GBP	+2.33 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	70.16 GBP	75.80 GBP	+5.64 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	61.75 USD	62.10 USD	+0.35 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1636 USD	1.1599 USD	-0.0037 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

According to the Agora Energiewende think tank, Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions fell only slightly by 1.5 per cent to around 640 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025. Although this meant that the national target was met, the decline was mainly due to continued significant weakness in industry and more renewable electricity, while the energy sector was unable to achieve greater savings. In energy-intensive industries, emissions fell by around 7.2 per cent due to declines in production.

Agora particularly criticises the slow progress in expanding renewable energies in the buildings and transport sectors, which are priced by the national emissions trading scheme. Despite a 49 per cent decline in total emissions since 1990, climate protection is losing momentum. Heat pumps and electric cars are on the rise, but emissions from buildings and transport continue to increase. Agora is therefore once again calling for the trend towards climate-friendly technologies to be exploited more strongly for industry and climate protection.

The cold start to the year led to an increase in oil and natural gas consumption in buildings in Germany, which increased emissions by around 3 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025. In the transport sector, higher fuel consumption and slow growth in electromobility led to an increase of around 2 million tonnes of CO₂. As a result, Germany once again missed the EU climate targets for buildings and transport by around 30 million tonnes of CO₂. Additional certificate purchases of up to €34 billion could therefore be necessary by 2030.

And these expenditures would be completely unnecessary, even though Germany achieved record revenues of €21.4 billion last year, an increase of 15.7% over the previous year (€18.5 billion). The revenues go entirely to the Climate and Transformation Fund to finance energy and climate protection projects.

Since 2008, a total of over 100 billion euros has been raised through auctions of European CO₂ emission allowances and the national emissions trading system for Germany, which began in 2021.

This week, a further 9,230,500 EUAs will be auctioned, including 1,093,000 certificates from Germany’s quota on Friday, which will in turn generate almost €100 million for the Climate and Transformation Fund.

Instrument	02/01/26	09/01/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	88.31 EUR	89.56 EUR	+1.25 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	76.00 EUR	76.98 EUR	+0.98 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	68.70 GBP	69.02 GBP	+0.32 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	73.31 GBP	70.16 GBP	-3.15 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	60.34 USD	61.75 USD	+1.41 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1720 USD	1.1636 USD	-0.0084 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

With the turn of the year, the new pricing for national emissions trading in Germany came into force, with auctions taking place for the first time with a price range of €55 to €65 per national emissions certificate.

As affected companies tend to use the upper range in their price calculations as a matter of commercial prudence, i.e. 65 euros per tonne of CO₂, the prices for fossil fuels at the pumps have been adjusted accordingly.

According to the German Automobile Club ADAC, this led to an average price increase of €0.034 per litre of petrol for E10 petrol, for example, to a nationwide average of €1.709 per litre of petrol at the beginning of the new year.

However, petrol prices are subject to even greater fluctuations due to the base commodity crude oil, which is also traded in US dollars on the world market.

According to the ADAC, the average price in 2022 was €1.86 due to the start of the war in Ukraine, €1.79 in the following year, and €1.74 per litre in 2024. In 2025, drivers with combustion engines paid an average of €1.69 per litre of E10 petrol.

Accordingly, the current prices for CO₂ have a rather minor effect on consumers, and it is therefore astonishing how many supposedly reputable newspapers are spreading panic with useless headlines suggesting to readers that they will no longer be able to afford to fill up their tanks from 2026 onwards.

The first auctions in the EU ETS will also take place in the first full trading week of the year. On Wednesday, the EEX will start auctioning 1,524,500 EUAs from the Polish quota; a total of 5,330,000 EUAs will be offered until Friday. Next week, 9,230,000 EUAs are to be auctioned over four days.

The first auction in the German national emissions trading system for emission allowances valid for 2025 under the 10% post-purchase option will take place next Tuesday, 13 January 2026.

Instrument	26/12/25	02/01/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	88.01 EUR	88.31 EUR	+0.30 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	75.77 EUR	76.00 EUR	+0.23 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	67.09 GBP	68.70 GBP	+1.61 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	72.50 GBP	73.31 GBP	+0.81 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	59.99 USD	60.34 USD	+0.35 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1772 USD	1.1720 USD	-0.0052 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team