Month: July 2026

Dear Sir or Madam,

Despite the European Commission’s reform proposals on 17 July aimed at weakening the European Emissions Trading System, prices in the EU ETS¹ rose significantly last week. The price of European emission allowances fluctuated last week between €78.76 and €86.91 in the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) benchmark contract and closed the week up 5.4 per cent, well above the €80 mark.

During these price movements, technical resistance levels were easily breached, and both the 200-day moving average and the 38-day moving average are heading towards the €80 mark. The 200-day moving average was last seen above the 80-euro mark in September 2024, whilst the 38-day moving average was last seen above it in early April this year.

From a technical analysis perspective, it will therefore be interesting to see whether EUAs attempt once again this trading week to reach the previous week’s highs or move towards the 80-euro mark.

This week, due to the scheduled absence of Poland’s Wednesday auction, a total of 7,739,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over the remaining four trading days, representing a 15.1 per cent decline compared with the previous week.

Last week’s Wednesday auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme resulted, for the first time, in an allocation below the 5 per cent mark; participants received just 4.63 per cent of the bid volumes.

As in previous auctions, 10,671,000 nEZ26 were originally offered; as all bidders submitted bids at €65 this time, 21.3 million allowances were again allocated.

This means that 44 per cent of the total volume of 192 million national emission allowances offered for auction during the auction phase has now been allocated.

Compared with the previous week, the total bid volume increased by around 50 million allowances to 461 million, and it is expected that there will be further increases, meaning that the percentage allocation rate will continue to fall.

As 460 million allowances are significantly more than the total compliance requirement – which is expected to be around 300 million allowances this year –

we expect that both speculative market participants are bidding in high volumes and that compliance buyers are also submitting bids for a multiple of their actual requirements in order to secure the best possible supply at the price of 65 euros.

Last year, a total of 294 million national emission allowances were sold.

Instrument	17/07/26	24/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	79.11 EUR	83.40 EUR	+4.29 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	58.70 GBP	59.83 GBP	+1.13 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	143.54 GBP	159.00 GBP	+15.46 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	83.17 USD	85.52 USD	+2.35 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1439 USD	1.1371 USD	+0.0068 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Friday, the European Commission’s reform proposals for the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS1) were announced.

The aim of the reform is to strengthen emissions trading as the European Union’s key climate protection instrument and to align it with the European climate target for 2040 and Europe’s climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. At the same time, the reform aims to create additional flexibility for industrial transformation in Europe.

Specifically, the European Commission proposes to make more allowances available at auction from 2031 onwards. Previously, the plan was to reduce the quantity of allowances linearly by 4.3 per cent annually until 2027 and by 4.4 per cent from 2028 onwards. In future, the reduction is to be less steep. Under the reform proposals, it is to be 3.7 per cent from 2031 to 2035 and 1.7 per cent from 2036 to 2040.

The free allocation of emission allowances to high-emitting industrial sectors is to be extended until 2038, and the transfer to the market stability reserve through a reduction in auction volumes has been cut from 24 per cent to 12 per cent.

The Commission therefore considers itself to remain on track to achieve the EU’s climate target: greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced by 90 per cent by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, and the EU continues to aim for net-zero emissions by 2050.

In addition, waste-to-energy plants are also to be required to participate in the EU ETS1 in future.

Reactions from market participants last Friday initially sent EUAs in the benchmark contract plummeting to a daily and weekly low of 76.92 euros; however, the price recovered to 79.11 euros by the end of the trading week. Friday’s daily high stood at 80.98, whilst the weekly high was reached on Wednesday at 82.18 euros.

Following the conclusion of the auctions for the EU Innovation Fund, the EEX published the new auction calendar for the EU ETS1 at the start of last week. Consequently, 9,119,500 EUAs will now be auctioned weekly until the end of August; in weeks without Polish auctions, 1,380,000 fewer emission allowances will be auctioned. From September, the weekly volume will increase to 16,487,000 EUAs; in weeks where Polish auctions do not take place for two consecutive weeks, 13,693,000 EUAs will be offered.

As expected, the third auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme, with a price range of €55 to €65, closed at the maximum price of €65.  As the €65 rule has once again come into force, 21.3 million allowances were auctioned instead of the 10.67 million nEZ26, meaning that a third of the total auction volume has already been auctioned.

A total of 106 bidders took part, of whom 105 were allocated allowances at a price of €65. The total volume of bids last Wednesday stood at 411 million allowances (358 million the previous week), and the percentage of bids awarded was 5.2 per cent (6.0 per cent the previous week and 7.3 per cent in the first auction).

Assuming that companies subject to the levy have so far been able to secure 18 per cent in the first three auctions, they now still need just over 80 per cent. If, therefore, the allocation rate were to remain at 5% and, as expected, only eight more auctions were to follow, approximately 40% would still be allocated, bringing the total to around 58% of requirements, provided that bidders always bid for the full amount.

Even though we will endeavour to secure more favourable prices for our clients on the secondary market after the auction phase, one should come to terms with the price of €68 per nEZ26 for the remaining allowances, unless one bids for a volume significantly higher than one’s actual requirement.

Here is a calculation example. If the requirement is 100,000 nEZ26 and you can only acquire approximately 58 per cent of the allowances at the regular auctions at a price of €65, you would need to budget for 42,000 allowances at a price of €68 as a matter of commercial prudence. This would entail an additional cost of 126,000 euros.

If one has the liquidity, or can obtain it from one’s bank or stakeholders, one could bid for an additional 420,000 nEZ26 at two consecutive auctions and would likely be allocated around 21,000 units at each.

The surplus amounts would be available as liquidity again the day after the auction.

As the €65 rule is only expected to apply until calendar week 33, auction results below the 5 per cent allocation are also to be expected thereafter; therefore, you should not wait too long before making a decision.

Our specialists are happy to assist you with detailed advice and calculations.

Instrument	10/07/26	17/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	79.20 EUR	79.11 EUR	-0.09 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	56.40 GBP	58.70 GBP	+2.30 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	122.56 GBP	143.54 GBP	+20.98 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	75.50 USD	83.17 USD	+7.67 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1414 USD	1.1439 USD	+0.0025 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The second auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme also closed at the maximum price of 65.00 euros, meaning that, in accordance with the rules, a volume of 21,341,565 nEZ26 – approximately double the previous volume – was once again auctioned off. A total of 106 bidders took part, of whom 105 were successful.

Due to the high bid volume of 358,286,810 allowances and a cover ratio of 33.58, bidders were only awarded 5.96 per cent of their bid volume.

As things stand, it is expected that in the remaining auctions the allocation rate will tend towards 5 per cent, and in the final auctions may even fall below this, in each case at the maximum price of 65.00 euros. If only a further eight auctions were to take place, it would theoretically be possible to cover approximately half of the compliance requirement for 2026, provided one had participated in all auctions from the outset.

Another option would be to submit a bid for 20 times the required quantity, in order to cover 100 per cent of one’s requirements in an auction with a 5 per cent allocation rate. However, as the exchange requires a security deposit of 100 per cent of the bid volume, only a few market participants are likely to be able to do this from their own liquidity, even though the excess amount would be available again the following day.

Assuming that the compliance requirement in 2026 will be around 300 million allowances and that 21 million were acquired, it can be assumed that some companies will adopt this strategy and that speculative market participants will also bid, intending to sell the allowances profitably on the secondary market; this explains the total bid volume of 358 million.

Last week, the German government also published its draft bill to amend the Fuel Emissions Trading Act. According to this, the price corridor is to remain between 55 and 65 euros in 2027 and will not be based on the price of EUAs, as originally stipulated.

The price for the top-up purchase of allowances after the end of the auction phase is set to rise by 5 euros next year, from 68 euros to 73 euros. The 10 per cent top-up option can then be exercised in 2028 for nEZ27 at a price of 75 euros, which also represents an increase of 5 euros compared with this year.

After Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran to be over in one of his angry rants, there was movement in prices on the energy market and consequently also in the EU ETS1. Just as prices for gas, oil, petrol and diesel rose on the exchanges, EUA prices fell back below the 80-euro mark and closed just above the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at 79.15.

As so-called ‘early auctions’ for the EU ETS2 are due to take place on the Leipzig-based EEX as early as the beginning of next year, and the December 2028 EUA2 contract has shown no movement in recent weeks, we have promptly replaced this contract with the December 2027 contract in our price table, as we believe this will provide a better indication of price trends.

This week, a total of 9,452,500 EUAs will be put up for auction on the EEX over four days.

Instrument	03/07/26	10/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	80.60 EUR	79.20 EUR	-1.10 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	71.00 EUR	66.55 EUR	-2.34 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	56.33 GBP	56.40 GBP	+0.07 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	114.55 GBP	122.56 GBP	+7.95 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	72.38 USD	75.50 USD	+3.12 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1437 USD	1.1414 USD	-0.0023 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Wednesday, the first auction in the German national emissions trading scheme for allowances with the year code 2026 took place on the European Energy Exchange, with a price range of 55–65 euros.

A total of 10,671,000 nEZ26 allowances were offered for auction, with bids received for a total volume of 291.7 million allowances, representing a 27-fold oversubscription.

As most bids were submitted at a price of 65 euros, the auction closed at this price and the 65-euro rule came into effect, resulting in a total of 21,341,599 nEZ26 being allocated, which correspondingly reduced the total auction volume of 192.1 million allowances. A total of 101 bids were submitted; two bidders who had bid less than 65 euros walked away empty-handed.

In this respect – and this is how it appears following the non-representative first auction – if the subsequent auctions also conclude at a price of 65 euros, the number of remaining auctions will be halved, meaning that a further 10 auction dates could be expected.

The low number of just 101 bidders also indicates that many companies subject to trading obligations have adopted a wait-and-see approach for the time being.

Next Wednesday, a further 10,671,000 nEZ26 allowances will be offered on the EEX. It will be interesting to see whether the number of bidders increases or decreases and whether there will be a higher number of bids below 65 euros.

In the EU ETS1, prices are tending to be cautious due to a lack of fundamental data, with all eyes on 15 July, when the European Commission is due to present its reform proposals for the EU ETS1.

Consequently, EUA prices in the benchmark contract fluctuated between 78.31 and 80.75 euros last week. After a technical pennant pattern had formed last week, the price broke out upwards at the apex of this chart formation, meaning the last trading week ended with a small gain of 0.4 per cent.

This week, a total of 10,832,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX across all five trading days.

Instrument	26/06/26	03/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	80.28 EUR	80.60 EUR	+0.32 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	71.00 EUR	71.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	n/a EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	57.15 GBP	56.33 GBP	-0.82 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	106.00 GBP	114.55 GBP	+8.55 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	72.12 USD	72.38 USD	+0.26 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1383 USD	1.1437 USD	+0.0054 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team