Month: December 2023

Dear Madam or Sir,

With a gross domestic product of almost 800 billion euros, North Rhine-Westphalia is not only the economically largest German federal state, but with more than 18 million inhabitants it is also by far the most populous, even though in terms of area it is only fourth after Bavaria, Lower Saxony and Baden-Wurttemberg.

The black-green state government under Prime Minister Hendrik Wust has now decided on requirements for renewable energies, which will come into force next year. From 2024, builders of non-residential buildings will be obliged to equip their properties with photovoltaic systems. From 2025 this will apply to all types of buildings. From 2026, the obligation for solar systems will also extend to the renovation of building roofs.

It is well known that the pricing of CO2 emissions in Germany will be significantly more expensive for tenants and owners in the coming year. Since these are net prices, VAT is of course added to the prices. Accordingly, one ton of CO2 currently costs consumers EUR 35.70, and from January 2024 it will cost EUR 53.55. In addition, the reduced VAT on natural gas and liquid gas is expected to rise again from 7% to 19% from February 29, 2024.

Regardless of VAT, the annual costs for a single-family home with a consumption of 20,000 KWh of natural gas will rise from EUR 130.00 to EUR 194.00 in the coming year due to the national emission allowances. For 2,000 liters of heating oil the costs rise from currently EUR 172.00 to EUR 258.00 and for 1,400 kg of liquid gas from EUR 172.00 to EUR 227.00. And there is no provision in the federal budget for the climate money announced before the election to be paid out to citizens.

After several bearish months, emissions allowances in the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) rose significantly last week by 14% compared to the previous weekly closing price. In addition, the December 2023 contract has expired, which is why December 2024 is now the benchmark contract for the EUAs, on which the price development on the spot market is also based.

Last Thursday, the new 2024 auction calendar for the EU ETS was published by EEX. Accordingly, the first auction starts in the 3rd calendar week on January 15, 2024 with a total volume of 13,404,500 EUAs on all five trading days.

We are of course also at your disposal during this trading week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	15/12/23	22/12/23	Change
EUA (December-2023-Future)	69.22 EUR	78.90 EUR	+9.68 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	0.37 USD	1.04 USD	+0.69 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.58 USD	0.74 USD	+0.16 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	77.01 USD	78.94 USD	+1.93 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0892 USD	1.1007 USD	+0.0115 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

Since last week it has been clear how the German federal government wants to solve its billion-euro problem, namely by increasing revenue and reducing expenditure.

Two things now also directly affect the area of decarbonization, namely national emissions trading and the premium for electric cars.

For some time now, companies have not received a bonus as a subsidy for the purchase of electric cars and now the bonus will no longer apply to private individuals if they have not submitted the application by yesterday, Sunday.

It is right that the bonus will be cancelled because electromobility will become established anyway, just when you consider the follow-up costs after the purchase. But they are also cheaper to purchase than their combustion counterparts. Just compare a current Model 3 Long Range, which has a practical range of more than 500 km, two engines, 440 hp, all-wheel drive and can accelerate from zero to 100 km/h in four seconds with an adequate combustion engine you can quickly reach six figures. You can get the Tesla for just under 52,000 euros gross.

It is also true that the price of carbon emissions in the transport and real estate sectors is being raised, but the communication from politicians is extremely poor. For Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck, an increase of 50.0% to 45 euros instead of 33.3% is just a “slightly higher carbon price”. And Federal Finance Minister Lindner forgets that the tax relief he is citing primarily affects those who can already afford a heat pump and an electric car.

And the announced climate money, which was intended to relieve the burden on low and normal earners and alleviate social hardship, will no longer be achieved in this legislative period, as Habeck had already announced months ago.

The last auction on EEX for 2023 is taking place today and the new trading calendars for the EU emissions trading system and the national emissions trading system have not yet been published.

Last week, the prices for EU emissions rights moved further south in the narrow downward trend channel and fell by a substantial 3% on a weekly closing price basis. It will remain interesting to see how the price behaves in the auction-free weeks and whether the next support in the area around 64.50 initiates a trend reversal.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	08/12/23	15/12/23	Change
EUA (December-2023-Future)	68.63 EUR	66.35 EUR	-2.28 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	1.09 USD	0.37 USD	-0.72 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.70 USD	0.58 USD	-0.12 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	75.94 USD	77.01 USD	+1.07 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0768 USD	1.0892 USD	+0.0124 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

This year’s World Climate Conference is coming to an end and there are actually people who thought that the oil-producing countries would support the exit from fossil fuels demanded by 100 countries.

The fact that this idea was naive has now been revealed by the world’s leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia, which clearly and openly spoke out against phasing out fossil fuels.

The Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman spoke out strictly against an exit in an interview with the financial  market information service “Bloomberg” and called states that would support an exit from fossil fuels “hypocritical”, which is certainly true of many state representatives.

A corresponding decision to withdraw must be made unanimously, which makes it obsolete, despite the fact that 2023 is the warmest year since weather records began.

The quadrillions in oil revenue are unfortunately more important than the collapse of the global climate by exceeding key tipping points.

At least Canada, also a large oil and gas producer and thus an emitter of 189 megatons of CO2, wants to limit its carbon emissions in this sector using an emissions trading system. An upper limit is to be introduced in the oil and gas sector from 2026, which should be paid for through emissions rights if these limits exceeded and thereby reduced.

The last auction for this year took place in Germany’s national emissions trading system last Thursday. Anyone who has purchased too many or too few national emission certificates can contact our trading department at any time. We will be happy to support you in buying or selling the 2023 nEZ.

EU emissions trading system prices continued to come under pressure last week, in line with energy stocks. European emission allowances have once again been under selling pressure and lost more than 5% based on the weekly closing price. Even the psychologically important 70 euro mark did not hold and the price continues to move southwards in a relatively narrow downward channel since the 80 euro mark.

The next relatively strong support is in the area around 64.50 euros, where the EUAs were last found at the end of September 2022.

This week, 11,427,000 EU emission rights will be auctioned on all trading days on the EEX, including 169,500 EUAAs for the aviation industry from the Polish contingent on Wednesday, which can now also be used for stationary facilities.

The last EEX auction of this year will take place next Monday for 3,041,500 EUAs.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	01/12/23	08/12/23	Change
EUA (December-2023-Future)	72.49 EUR	68.63 EUR	-3.86 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	1.02 USD	1.09 USD	+0.07 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.71 USD	0.70 USD	-0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	79.07 USD	75.94 USD	-3.13 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0882 USD	1.0768 USD	-0.0114 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Madam or Sir,

The current German federal government is not having an easy time of it, as it has been losing one court case after another in recent weeks, which raises questions about the professionalism of these political actors.

Last week, the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court ruled that the federal government must decide on additional emergency measures in order to reduce carbon emissions from the building and transport sectors. The German Environmental Aid (DUH) and the German Association for the Environment and Nature Conservation (BUND) filed suit.

The DUH now expects strict speed limits in Germany and the BUND is also calling for concrete immediate programs to achieve effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in these sectors. It will remain interesting to see how the government plans to wriggle out of this.

This year’s World Climate Conference began last Thursday in Dubai, an emirate that has made its wealth from oil and gas, like the entire United Arab Emirates.

This is as comical as if the Vegetarian Association were to hold its annual general meeting in an animal slaughterhouse.

At the beginning, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for the participating states to commit to phasing out fossil fuels. At the same time, he warned of a “total catastrophe” if humanity continued on its current course. Nobody really believes that the oil and gas producing countries in particular will take seriously part in this.

Prices for European greenhouse gas pollution rights have continued to fall in their sideways-downward trend channel over the past week, although the 70-euro mark has held. Accordingly, Friday showed a corresponding price increase of 2.4%.

The last auction for EUAs this year will take place on December 18, 2023, at the Leipzig EEX and since the first auction in 2024 starts around three weeks later, there could be a price increase, especially if other bullish parameters are also added.

German national emission certificates can only be auctioned on the EEX on December 5th, 2023, and December 7th, 2023, and this year, due to the upcoming price increase from 30 to 40 euros, it is particularly important to assess your needs carefully and cover them by Thursday at the latest. And who knows – perhaps the German government will decide on an even higher price in order to implement the court ruling from the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court, as the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) has already demanded.

As always, we are happy to assist last-minute buyers quickly and easily.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	24/11/23	01/12/23	Change
EUA (December-2023-Future)	76.60 EUR	72.49 EUR	-4.11 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)	0.99 USD	1.02 USD	+0.03 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)	0.67 USD	0.71 USD	+0.04 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)	30.00 EUR	30.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	80.03 USD	79.07 USD	-0.96 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.0933 USD	1.0882 USD	-0.0051 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH