Month: August 2025

Dear Sir or Madam,

Military activities are a largely underestimated factor in global climate change. Despite their enormous emissions, they are hardly taken into account in international climate agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The recording of military emissions is mostly voluntary – many countries cite security concerns and publish no or only incomplete data.

According to estimates, the Gaza War has so far caused at least 32 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. The war in Ukraine has produced as much as 230 million tonnes in the last three years, and the German armed forces also cause greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 10 million tonnes annually.

According to a working paper by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), military emissions account for around 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This figure includes both direct emissions from combat operations and indirect emissions from infrastructure, logistics and reconstruction.

Armed conflicts are therefore a significant but often overlooked driver of climate change. The estimated emissions from individual wars show that military activities not only cost human lives but also jeopardise climate targets. Greater integration of military emissions into climate policy is therefore urgently needed.

European emission allowances (EUAs) continued to follow technical charts last week and settled above the 200-day line, which has been considered strong support in recent weeks. On Thursday, EUAs broke through the 38-day line to the upside and closed the week with a gain of 2.6%.

This week, a total of 11,350,000 EUAs will be auctioned on four trading days. Due to the biweekly cancellation of the Polish Wednesday auction, this represents a decrease of 15.4% compared to the previous week.

In the German national emissions trading system, auctions for emission allowances with the annual identifier 2024 (nEZ24) will only take place for another four weeks at a price of 45 euros under the 10% post-auction purchase rule on the EEX.

The last fixed-price auction for nEZ24 will take place on Thursday, 18 September 2025, and purchase orders can be placed here until 3 p.m..

In order to avoid technical problems, difficulties with payment transactions or other unforeseen circumstances, we recommend that you do not wait until the last week.

Our specialists will be happy to answer any questions you may have about emissions trading.

Instrument	15/08/25	22/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.68 EUR	72.53 EUR	+1.85 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	86.37 EUR	88.24 EUR	+1.87 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	50.80 GBP	52.19 GBP	+1.39 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	86.46 GBP	91.78 GBP	+5.32 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	66.14 USD	66.77 USD	+0.63 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1699 USD	1.1720 USD	+0.0021 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

While in Norway a whopping 97% of new registrations are electric vehicles, Germany lags far behind with less than 19%. There are many reasons for this: cheap electricity from renewables (99%), consistent government support and clear political rigour have made the Scandinavians pioneers in e-mobility. In Germany, on the other hand, there is uncertainty – not only about the infrastructure, but also about the political stance. The change has been approved, but implementation remains bumpy. Unlike Norway, Germany has an influential automotive industry.

However, Germany’s wavering course is by no means a signal that the energy transition and the next industrial revolution should be shaken up.

Fortunately, decision-makers in industry (not only) in this country are showing understanding and making serious efforts to achieve CO2-neutral production. A new generation of management decisions is emerging that not only aim at short-term efficiency and competitiveness, but also actively contribute to decarbonisation.

This requires the courage to invest in new technologies, accept long payback periods and see regulatory uncertainties as an opportunity for innovation. There are already many examples of this:

In the steel industry, the combination of Direct Reduction and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) is considered the key to climate-neutral production.

In Direct Reduction, iron ore is processed into Hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) – a process that replaces the coal-based blast furnace and drastically reduces carbon emissions. The Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is then melted down in an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). These furnaces run on electricity and do not require any additional coal or coke. This results in a completely carbon-free process – provided that the energy comes from wind, solar or hydro power.

In the chemical industry, there is growing evidence that CO2 can not only be avoided, but also used as a raw material. Carbon capture is being integrated into existing processes, and new value chains are emerging around CO2-based products.

The cement industry is rethinking product design, with pioneers investing in CO2-free binders as well as in technologies for capturing, storing or reusing the CO2 produced during cement production.

The range of possible adjustments is almost endless – and more and more companies are recognising the opportunity to set new international standards through smart management decisions. A new generation of industrial policy is emerging that sees ecology and economy not as contradictions, but as a connected future. Artificial intelligence and, at some point, quantum physics will be added as powerful catalysts.

In the past trading week, the EUA closed lower than the previous week’s closing price in a gentle downward trend that was only briefly interrupted on Wednesday, losing all its gains with a settlement price of 70.68 euros.

It almost seems as if traders have been comfortable in this range for many weeks now. However, there will not be anything like a ‘neutral zone’ here in the long run, and some indicators suggest that the market could take a new, bullish turn in the foreseeable future.

Instrument	08/08/25	15/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	73.21 EUR	70.68 EUR	-2.53 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	88.97 EUR	86.37 EUR	-2.60 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	51.86 GBP	50.80 GBP	-1.06 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	90.52 GBP	86.46 GBP	-4.06 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.49 USD	66.14 USD	+0.65 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1642 USD	1.1699 USD	+0.0057 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Wednesday, a hearing of the federal states and associations was held on the draft of a second amendment to the Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance (BEHV) regarding Germany’s national emissions trading scheme.

The aim of the amendment is to establish regulations on national CO₂ pricing from 2026 onwards and on the auctioning and sale of emission allowances.

In addition, adjustments have been made to the emissions trading registry to facilitate implementation. The draft bill is still in the consultation process, and comments could be submitted until 7 July 2025.

As an upper limit on the number of emission allowances to be auctioned will apply for the first time next year, companies that come away empty-handed at the auctions will be able to buy additional allowances at a price of 68 euros; previously, the price was to be 70 euros. The price range in the auctions for 2026 is 55 to 65 euros per national emission allowance (nEZ).

In addition, as before, 10% of the allowances are to be purchased in the following year 2027 at a price of 70 euros, and not, as previously planned, 4% of the volume documented in the registry account on 31 December 2026.

In the not unlikely event that there are delays in the introduction of EU ETS2, Germanys national emissions trading will continue and the market price for the nEZ auctions will be based on the volume-weighted average price of the EUA (EU ETS) for the penultimate quarter.

Last but not least, the rules governing admission to the auctions have also been revised. According to the current and probably final version, the designated marketplace will be required to admit eligible parties to participate in the sale process under conditions that are objective and non-discriminatory. Furthermore, the admission requirements may not impose higher requirements than those for participation in trading in products sold on the regulated market of the appointed entity.

This leads to the conclusion that the relevant exchange will also have higher admission requirements for existing compliance participants and intermediaries.

EU emission allowances had a negative start to the week last week, setting a weekly low of 70.85 euros for the December 2025 benchmark contract. Last Friday, however, EUAs rose significantly and broke through the 38-day line. At the same time, they reached a six-week high of €73.35 and ended the trading week with a gain of 3.1%.

This week, the Polish auction will again be not held on Wednesday as scheduled, and a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX) on the remaining four days.

Instrument	01/08/25	08/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.04 EUR	73.21 EUR	+2.17 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	86.72 EUR	88.97 EUR	+2.25 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	49.94 GBP	51.86 GBP	+1.92 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	95.05 GBP	90.52 GBP	-4.53 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	68.04 USD	65.49 USD	-2.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1586 USD	1.1642 USD	+0.0056 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Visitors to the European Energy Exchange (EEX) on Augustusplatz enjoy a wonderful view of Leipzig and beyond.

Since its foundation 25 years ago, EEX has developed into one of the leading global exchanges for energy and market-based climate protection instruments in the spot and futures markets and is now stakeholder in many other exchanges and trading venues worldwide.

Twenty years ago, EEX began offering EU emission allowances (EUA, European Allowances) on the spot market, and it has been conducting primary market auctions for 15 years.

A week ago today, EEX published the auction calendar for EU ETS 1 for 2026 and the auction calendar for this year, which has been adjusted to take into account the intervention of the market stability reserve.

The original plan was for the EU to auction 4,547,500 EUAs three times a week starting in September this year, with Germany auctioning 3,129,500 EUAs on Fridays and Poland auctioning 3,291,500 EUAs every second Wednesday.

Due to the market stability reserve (MSR), 3,268,000 EUAs (-28.1%) will now be auctioned for the European Union starting in September, 1,691,000 (-46.0%) at the Friday auction for Germany and 2,162,500 EUAs (-34.3%) at the biweekly Polish auction.

The last auction for EUAs this year will take place on 15 December 2025, when 3,273,000 emission allowances from the EU quota will be offered. In 2026, the first auction will take place on 7 January.

The regular auction volume for the EU in the coming year is 2,935,000 EUAs (-10.2%), the biweekly Polish volume will be 1,801,500 EUAs (-16.7%) and the German auction volume will be reduced to 1,353,000 EUAs (-20.0%).

A total of 583,335,000 emission allowances are to be auctioned next year, which corresponds to a decrease of 5,400,000 units or 0.93% compared to this year.

A total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be auctioned in the current trading week.

EUA prices were initially very bullish last week, reaching a July high of 73.35 euros in the benchmark futures contract for December 2025 on Wednesday.

On Friday, however, most of the price gains were reversed and EUAs ended the week with a small loss of 30 cents or 0.4%.

Instrument	25/07/25	01/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.34 EUR	71.04 EUR	-0.30 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	83.01 EUR	88.97 EUR	+3.71 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	50.10 GBP	49,94 GBP	-0,16 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	93.38 GBP	95,05 GBP	+1,67 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	66.65 USD	68.04 USD	+1,39 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1742 USD	1.1586 USD	-0,0156 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team