Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (14/07/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

A week ago today, the first EUA2 futures for the EU ETS2 were traded on the EEX.

Unlike ICE, which only launched the contract with a maturity date of December 2028, EEX opted for 20 futures, with only six futures prices quoted, each in the April and December contracts.

As on ICE, one lot comprises 1,000 EUA2, and the first trading week ended with the following prices:

EUA2 December 2027:            EUR 77.89

EUA2 April 2028:                      EUR 78.73

EUA2 December 2028:            EUR 80.42

EUA2 April 2029:                      EUR 81.34

EUA2 December 2029:            EUR 83.17

EUA2 April 2030:                      EUR 84.19

All in all, the prices are relatively close to the EUA1 futures with the same maturities, which is due to the current lack of liquidity caused by political uncertainties and the exchange’s pricing.

Of course, these prices are nothing more than an initial indication, and it will be interesting to see how prices develop over the next 18 months until the planned launch of EU ETS2.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the December 2027 EUA2 futures if EU ETS2 is postponed by one year to 2028. In this case, a swap to the next available contract will probably be made.

After continued uncertainty regarding US tariff policy last week, we are still none the wiser, even though Donald Trump’s letter to the EU has now been published.

In it, he is currently demanding 30% tariffs on goods imported from the European Union from 1 August. This is not seen as merely a new means of exerting pressure, as the negotiations between the EU and the US are not going Trump’s way. However, it can be assumed that the remaining days will continue to be used for negotiations.

Otherwise, the EU will adopt countermeasures that will harm export-oriented companies in the US. However, these will certainly be somewhat lower in order not to motivate Trump, who is predictable in his unpredictability, to further increases and to prevent an escalation spiral.

Last week, the wait for Trump’s tariff letter weighed moderately on the EUAs, which fell moderately by 1.6% compared to the previous week.

Market participants in the financial and commodity markets will closely monitor further developments in the coming weeks of July. Depending on how the tariff dispute develops, this will have an impact on price developments in the markets.

This week, a total of 11,343,500 will be auctioned on four trading days, with the exception of Wednesday, when the Polish auction is not scheduled to take place.

Instrument04/07/2504/07/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)71.67 EUR70.55 EUR-1.12 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)80.22 EUR79.10 EUR-1.12 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))47.71 GBP47.51 GBP-0.20 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)95.26 GBP98.92 GBP+3.66 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)65.95 USD67.72 USD+1.77 USD
EURO (Forex)1.1778 USD1.1691 USD-0.0087 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

advantag GmbH | Glockengasse 5 | 47608 Geldern | Tel.: +49(0)2831.1348220 | Fax: +49(0)2831.1348221 | E-Mail: info@advantag.de | Web:  www.advantag.de

Managing Director Raik Oliver Heinzelmann

Headquarter: Geldern (Germany) | Local Court Kleve HRB 11372 | VAT.-ID: DE281836677

This email and any attachments are confidential and may also be privileged. If you are not the named recipient, please notify the sender immediately and do not disclose the contents to another person use it for any purpose. or store or copy the information in any medium. In the event of any technical difficulty with this email. please contact the sender.

P Please consider environment before printing this email and safe on every page 200 ml drinkable water, two gram CO² and two gram wood.

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (07/07/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The term ‘climate protection’ is essentially meaningless, because the climate does not care how warm it is on Earth, so it does not need to be protected. However, humanity, flora and fauna must be protected from the effects of uncontrolled and exponential global warming, which they themselves are causing through our human made greenhouse gas emissions.

Last week, the European Commission presented its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. The EU aims to reduce CO2e emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

From 2036 onwards, this is to be achieved, among other things, by using international emission allowances from third countries, but only for 3%. It is to be hoped that lessons will be learned from the mistakes made in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementations (JI), whose CER (Certified Emission Reductions) and ERU (Emission Reduction Units) certificates were allowed to be used in the EU ETS in the first trading periods at up to 22% and did not always achieve the desired CO2e savings.

In addition, last week Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety published the draft BEHV (Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance), which is intended to regulate the period until EU ETS 2. Among other things, this concerned the auctioning of national emission trading allowances next year in a price range of 55 to 65 euros.

Furthermore, it is planned that only 4% of the nEZ26 available in the registry account on 31 December 2026, instead of the current 10%, can be repurchased at a fixed price of 70 euros in the following year. This also applies to any additional requirements exceeding the total auction volume.

Provisions have also been made in the event that the introduction of EU ETS 2 is delayed. In this case, the national emission allowances are to be auctioned at the volume-weighted average price of the EUAs in EU ETS 1.

Following the introduction of the first futures for EU ETS 2 with a maturity date of December 2028 by the Intercontinental Exchange ICE at the beginning of May this year, the first futures for EUA2 are set to be launched today on the European Energy Exchange EEX in Leipzig.

The planned maturities of the futures contracts are 5 December, 5 April and 12 monthly contracts (first tradable expiry date is December 2027). 

Last week, the price of EUAs in EU ETS 1 ranged between €68.71 and €72.79 in the benchmark future, with trading very much driven by technical factors.

However, there is a fundamental component to watch out for in the new week, namely the deadline set by Donald Trump for the postponed tariffs. According to his own statements, he intends to send letters to 10 to 12 countries with new import tariffs from Friday onwards if agreements are not reached to his satisfaction.

This will naturally have an enormous impact on the financial markets and, accordingly, on the price development of EUAs. Should the markets fall back into their usual hysteria, EUAs could head back towards 60 euros, which would offer good opportunities to cover the CO2 portfolio at a favourable price with any emission allowances still required.

Contact us in good time and your contact person will develop a tailored procurement strategy with you.

After 11,346,500 EUAs were auctioned on the EEX last week, 13,416,000 will be auctioned on all four trading days this week, representing an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous week.

Instrument27/06/2504/07/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)70.96 EUR71.67 EUR+0.71 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)81.48 EUR80.22 EUR-1.26 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))48.12 GBP47.71 GBP-0.41 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)93.78 GBP95.26 GBP+1.48 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)64.98 USD65.95 USD+0.97 USD
EURO (Forex)1.1719 USD1.1778 USD+0.0059 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (30/06/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Germany plans to auction a total of 96,764,500 emission allowances at the EEX in Leipzig this year.

Due to the shutdown of the Neurath A and Frechen power plant units in 2022 as part of the Coal Phase-Out Act, approximately 890,000 tonnes of CO2 will not be emitted in 2023.

A large portion of the relevant allowances have already been retired as part of the market stability reserve (MSR). The Federal Environment Agency has now announced that Germany will withdraw a total of 514,000 EUAs from the market in such a way that they will not be auctioned on the EEX. The auction calendar will be adjusted accordingly in the coming weeks.

On Wednesday, new proposals from the European Commission regarding the EU climate targets for 2040 are expected. It is highly likely that there will also be intensive discussions about the launch of EU ETS 2.

Austria has now joined an initiative originating in the Czech Republic, which is already supported by 15 countries, including Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Belgium, Croatia and Germany.

These countries have written a letter calling for changes to the EU ETS 2, which is set to start across Europe in 2027 for the building and transport sectors.

The initiative has expressed concerns about the unpredictability of prices at the start and is calling for improvements for businesses and consumers to be made before the launch.

The background to this is the fear of political risks if emissions trading causes energy prices to rise too sharply before accompanying and appropriate compensation and support measures have been put in place.

With only 18 months to go before the EU ETS is scheduled to start, there is therefore a need for urgent action.

Prices in the EU ETS 1 fell by another 2.8% in the past trading week after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel last week.

Brent crude oil fell significantly more sharply, losing 10.1% over the week, while British gas lost as much as 16.2%.

However, as the ceasefire in the Middle East is very fragile, renewed military conflict could lead to a backlash on the energy markets.

A total of 11,346,500 EUAs are being offered for auction on the European Energy Exchange in the current trading week. This is 15.4% less than in the previous week, as the Polish Wednesday auction is not taking place.

Instrument20/06/2527/06/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)72.97 EUR70.96 EUR-2.01 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)81.40 EUR81.48 EUR+0.08 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))51.00 GBP48.12 GBP-2.88 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)111.89 GBP93.78 GBP-18.11 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)72.27 USD64.98 USD-7.29 USD
EURO (Forex)1.1523 USD1.1719 USD+0.0196 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (23/06/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Berlin-based think tank Agora Energiewende has determined that the average German electricity price on the stock exchange could fall by up to 23 percent by 2030 if the federal government sticks to its planned expansion path for renewable energies.

Agora estimates that this would mean a reduction of 20 euros per megawatt hour for industry and consumers, provided that the expansion of wind and solar energy continues as stipulated in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG).

Accordingly, in addition to this relief, there would be scope for a climate allowance to ease the burden on households affected by CO2 pricing. This is also supported by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as she recently stated in an interview with the Osnabrücker Zeitung. Otherwise, it would be difficult to achieve acceptance of CO2 pricing in the EU ETS 2.

On Sunday night, the US entered the war between Israel and Iran and destroyed three underground nuclear enrichment facilities in a military operation.

Prices for fossil fuels rose significantly in some cases last week, and the volatile situation in the Middle East will continue to influence the markets this week.

Last week, however, the price of European emission allowances decoupled from the development of fossil fuels and ended the trading week down 3.9% on a weekly closing basis.

This week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs from the EU, Poland and Germany quotas will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days. This represents an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

Instrument13/06/2520/06/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)75.94 EUR72.97 EUR-2.97 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)84.46 EUR81.40 EUR-3.06 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))54.56 GBP51.00 GBP-3.56 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)102.78 GBP111.89 GBP+9.11 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)70.22 USD72.27 USD+2.05 USD
EURO (Forex)1.1551 USD1.1523 USD-0.0028 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (16/06/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Israel’s military action against clearly defined targets in relation to Tehran’s efforts to produce radioactive materials suitable for use in nuclear weapons has received an expected backlash.

Market participants in the commodity and energy markets have reacted accordingly with regard to the possible impact on gas and oil production in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices rose by just under 10% on Friday before closing the week with a gain of 8.7%. Similar price movements were also observed for gas.

In the wake of this development, EU emission allowances (EUA) also rose to a daily high of EUR 76.75 in the benchmark contract for December 2025, ultimately closing the trading week with a gain of 3.3%.

The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and it is unclear whether it will escalate further or whether both parties will return to the negotiating table.

In any case, market participants in the commodity and energy markets will be keeping a close eye on developments in the conflict this week, which will have a corresponding impact on short-term price movements.

As the Polish auction is not taking place this Wednesday, a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on the remaining trading days, representing an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous week.

Instrument06/06/2513/06/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)73.50 EUR75.94 EUR+2.44 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)81.73 EUR84.46 EUR+2.73 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))50.40 GBP54.56 GBP+4.16 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)97.66 GBP102.78 GBP+5.12 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)64.62 USD70.22 USD+5.60 USD
EURO (Forex)1.1394 USD1.1551 USD+0.0157 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team