Dear Sir or Madam,
A week ago today, the first EUA2 futures for the EU ETS2 were traded on the EEX.
Unlike ICE, which only launched the contract with a maturity date of December 2028, EEX opted for 20 futures, with only six futures prices quoted, each in the April and December contracts.
As on ICE, one lot comprises 1,000 EUA2, and the first trading week ended with the following prices:
EUA2 December 2027: EUR 77.89
EUA2 April 2028: EUR 78.73
EUA2 December 2028: EUR 80.42
EUA2 April 2029: EUR 81.34
EUA2 December 2029: EUR 83.17
EUA2 April 2030: EUR 84.19
All in all, the prices are relatively close to the EUA1 futures with the same maturities, which is due to the current lack of liquidity caused by political uncertainties and the exchange’s pricing.
Of course, these prices are nothing more than an initial indication, and it will be interesting to see how prices develop over the next 18 months until the planned launch of EU ETS2.
It will also be interesting to see what happens to the December 2027 EUA2 futures if EU ETS2 is postponed by one year to 2028. In this case, a swap to the next available contract will probably be made.
After continued uncertainty regarding US tariff policy last week, we are still none the wiser, even though Donald Trump’s letter to the EU has now been published.
In it, he is currently demanding 30% tariffs on goods imported from the European Union from 1 August. This is not seen as merely a new means of exerting pressure, as the negotiations between the EU and the US are not going Trump’s way. However, it can be assumed that the remaining days will continue to be used for negotiations.
Otherwise, the EU will adopt countermeasures that will harm export-oriented companies in the US. However, these will certainly be somewhat lower in order not to motivate Trump, who is predictable in his unpredictability, to further increases and to prevent an escalation spiral.
Last week, the wait for Trump’s tariff letter weighed moderately on the EUAs, which fell moderately by 1.6% compared to the previous week.
Market participants in the financial and commodity markets will closely monitor further developments in the coming weeks of July. Depending on how the tariff dispute develops, this will have an impact on price developments in the markets.
This week, a total of 11,343,500 will be auctioned on four trading days, with the exception of Wednesday, when the Polish auction is not scheduled to take place.
Instrument | 04/07/25 | 04/07/25 | Change |
EUA (December-25-Future) | 71.67 EUR | 70.55 EUR | -1.12 EUR |
EUA 2 (December-28-Future) | 80.22 EUR | 79.10 EUR | -1.12 EUR |
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 47.71 GBP | 47.51 GBP | -0.20 GBP |
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 95.26 GBP | 98.92 GBP | +3.66 GBP |
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future) | 65.95 USD | 67.72 USD | +1.77 USD |
EURO (Forex) | 1.1778 USD | 1.1691 USD | -0.0087 USD |
(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team
advantag GmbH | Glockengasse 5 | 47608 Geldern | Tel.: +49(0)2831.1348220 | Fax: +49(0)2831.1348221 | E-Mail: info@advantag.de | Web: www.advantag.de
Managing Director Raik Oliver Heinzelmann
Headquarter: Geldern (Germany) | Local Court Kleve HRB 11372 | VAT.-ID: DE281836677
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