Author: advantag

Dear Sir or Madam,

The price of crude oil is surprisingly low given that global oil reserves are dwindling at a record pace.

It is not only the transport problems in the Strait of Hormuz that are putting pressure on the global oil supply; production also fell between March and April. This is the conclusion reached by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) May oil market report, which was published last Wednesday. Supply flows of crude oil, natural gas and fuels from the Persian Gulf remain largely disrupted; according to the report, governments and companies are responding with rationing, austerity measures and price controls.

The IEA estimates that the situation will drag on for months. The release of emergency reserves in Germany, the US and Japan caused recorded oil stocks to fall by around four million barrels a day in March and April. The oil market will remain “massively undersupplied” until October, even if the Iran conflict ends soon.

On the spot market, Brent crude oil closed at US$109.35 last week, and the December contract also climbed back above the US$90 mark.

The European Energy Exchange (EEX) published the revised EUA auction calendar for 2026 last Tuesday. It applies from June to December and takes into account the amended European Climate Law. From June 2026, 50 million EUAs will be auctioned for the Social Climate Fund. Of these, 10 million had previously been allocated to participating Member States. These 10 million allowances were deducted from those allocations and also allocated to the fund.

The Social Climate Fund is an EU fund designed to cushion the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS2) in the buildings and transport sectors for particularly affected citizens and micro-enterprises. It provides Member States with funds for temporary income support, investments in energy efficiency and building decarbonisation, as well as for improved access to low-emission mobility.

As a result, the EU auctions, which usually take place three times a week, will increase from 2,712,500 to 3,198,500 between June and August, and to 3,699,000 EUAs from September onwards. The weekly German auction will be reduced from 1,093,000 to 1,000,000 allowances over the next three months, before rising to 2,596,000 EUAs per week from September. The fortnightly auction for Poland will be reduced from 1,524,500 to 1,380,000 EUAs over the following three-month period, with the volume rising to 2,794,000 emission allowances from September.

In addition, the German government plans to continue pricing in the national emissions trading system (nEHS) in 2027 as it has done this year.

Currently, the rule is that the price of national emission allowances is based on the average price of EU ETS1 emission allowances. 

This requires an amendment to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) and the Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance (BEHV) by the German Bundestag and Bundesrat.

Last week, during which only three auctions took place on the EEX due to public holidays, EUAs traded within a range of €73.69 to €77.45.

Due to the scheduled absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, a total of 9,230,500 EUAs from the EU and Germany will be auctioned on the other four trading days this week.

Instrument	08/05/26	15/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	75.18 EUR	75.60 EUR	+0.42 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67.00 EUR	66.75 EUR	-0.25 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	50.05 GBP	51.13 GBP	+1.08 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	112.80 GBP	124.79 GBP	+11.99 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	87.28 USD	90.98 USD	+3.70 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1787 USD	1.1626 USD	-0.0161 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

For the Western industrialised nations, the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East represent two pressing areas of concern that are affecting economic growth and the stability of the energy supply of fossil fuels.

By now, all parties to the aforementioned wars seem to have realised that it makes sense, both domestically and economically, to prepare an exit strategy.

To what extent this is within reach cannot be predicted with any certainty by the key players; however, there are increasing signs that the conflicts could come to an end.

Needless to say, the main focus now is on achieving this in a way that preserves some degree of face, so that each party can present itself as a winner in some capacity.

To the extent that these signs of détente continue to mount, this could send further bearish signals to the energy markets, which should have the opposite effect on emissions allowances.

Over the past trading week, EU emission allowances therefore rose moderately, trading within a range of 72.71 to 77.11 euros in the December benchmark contract.

On a closing price basis for the week, they ultimately showed a gain of 1.7%, whilst UK Natural Gas, for example, fell by 4.3%.

This week, due to the public holiday and the long weekend on Friday, a total of 6,949,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX over just three trading days.

It will not be until the 24th calendar week, which begins on 6 June 2026, that the maximum weekly volume will again be auctioned over five days.

Instrument	01/05/26	08/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	73.94 EUR	75.18 EUR	+1.24 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67.41 EUR	67.00 EUR	-0.41 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	49.88 GBP	50.05 GBP	+0.17 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	117.87 GBP	112.80 GBP	-5.07 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	87.40 USD	87.28 USD	-0.12 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1721 USD	1.1787 USD	+0.0066 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s open criticism of the US government regarding the lack of a clear exit strategy in the Iran conflict may be understandable, but it has led to the predictable response from Donald Trump, who, in addition to withdrawing US Army troops from Germany, intends to impose 25% import tariffs on the already struggling European car industry.

Trump’s reasoning may be inconsistent, but the issue has the potential to lead to further escalation between the US and Europe, which in turn will affect European economic growth. The impact on the financial markets will be felt accordingly, even though they have now become more resilient to Donald Trump’s announcements in terms of market psychology.

Last Tuesday, the European Energy Exchange published the updated auction calendar for national emissions trading in Germany. Among the key changes is that auctions will now take place on Wednesdays between 13:00 and 15:00, starting on 1 July 2026.

In addition, the weekly auction volume has been adjusted to 10,671,000 nEZ; the final auction within the €55–€65 range will take place on 28 October 2026 with 10,678,240 nEZ. The total volume within the range auctions, which had previously been 195,000,000 nEZ, has now been reduced to 192,085,240 nEZ.

The total demand for 2025 amounted to 294,000,000 nEZ. Based on this, there is an additional demand of 103 million nEZ, which can be met without limit at a price of €68 between 3 November 2026 and 3 December 2026, on Tuesdays.

Given the assumption that investors with speculative interests will also secure allowances at a price of up to €65 during the auction phase, in order to then offer them profitably on the secondary market below €68 during the fixed-price phase, there is a high probability that only a small proportion of the demand for 2026 can be met within the range of €55 – €65. Companies subject to trading obligations should take this into account when calculating their product prices. We would be happy to advise you on this matter.

Also last week, the European Parliament presented plans regarding the EU ETS2, which is set to come into force from 2028 and will replace the national emissions trading scheme in Germany. In particular, the initially targeted price of €45 per EUA2 was reaffirmed, which is to be achieved through rapid intervention by the market stability reserve should speculative behaviour drive prices up too sharply. At the same time, the cap-and-trade mechanism is to be retained.

So far, however, this has not had a significant impact on prices in the EU ETS2 futures market (December 2028 future).

Prices for EUAs fluctuated within a moderate range of €72.43 to €76.04 last week, showing a decline of 1.3% on a closing price basis.

On the EEX, a total of 9,230,500 EUAs will be auctioned over the remaining four days this week due to the absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, representing a 4.5% decrease compared to the previous week.

Instrument	24/04/26	01/05/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	74,90 EUR	73,94 EUR	-0,96 EUR
EUA2 (December-2028-Future)	67,23 EUR	67,41 EUR	+0,18 EUR
nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates)	55,00 EUR	55,00 EUR	+0,00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	50,47 GBP	49,88 GBP	-0,59 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	115,79 GBP	117,87 GBP	+2,08 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	84,81 USD	87,40 USD	+2,59 USD
EURO (Forex)	1,1721 USD	1,1721 USD	+0,0000 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The 17th Petersberg Climate Dialogue took place in Berlin on 21 and 22 April 2026. It was dominated by the global energy crisis, driven by geopolitical tensions such as the war in Iran and high energy prices. Representatives from more than 30 countries discussed the transition away from fossil fuels and the acceleration of the energy transition.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasised the importance of closely linking climate protection measures with economic growth. In doing so, he placed security of supply and the affordability of energy at the centre of the political agenda.

In light of the current energy crisis, the majority of participants viewed a faster phase-out of fossil fuels as urgently necessary to reduce dependence on them. Furthermore, Germany emphasised that it remains a reliable partner for countries particularly hard hit by climate change.

One aim of the dialogue was to forge new alliances ahead of upcoming international climate conferences, such as the COP31 World Climate Conference in Antalya, Turkey, in November. Discussions focused in particular on climate finance and strategies for adapting to climate change.

The dialogue demonstrated that the energy crisis can be used as a catalyst for the expansion of renewable energy, although the implementation of concrete measures and financing remain major challenges.

In the Middle East, the stalemate between the US and Iran appears to be becoming further entrenched, which is further delaying short-term oil supplies from the region. Added to this is the fact that, from May, Russia no longer intends to supply oil from Kazakhstan via the Druzhba pipeline to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg, as announced by the German subsidiary of the Russian group Rosneft, which is currently under state trusteeship.

Following Iran, Russia has now also realised how it can put pressure on Europe during the current supply bottleneck.

Experts are unsure how long it will take to trigger a serious supply crisis for diesel and kerosene in Germany, but it seems sensible to focus on measures that are suitable for ensuring security of supply. A reduction in fuel prices – though most agree on this – is definitely not one of them, as it sends the wrong signals regarding consumer behaviour.

Last week, EU emission allowances traded within a range of €74.09 to €76.95 in the benchmark contract and ended the week down 3.3% due to the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East.

Due to the May Day bank holiday on Friday, auctions with a total volume of 9,662,000 EUAs will take place on only four days this week on the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX).

Instrument	17/04/26	24/04/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	77.46 EUR	74.90 EUR	-2.56 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.50 EUR	67.23 EUR	-1.27 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	51.70 GBP	50.47 GBP	-1.23 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	101.90 GBP	115.79 GBP	+13.89 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	78.45 USD	84.81 USD	+6.36 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1765 USD	1.1721 USD	-0.0044 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

In order to alleviate the financial strain on households caused by the war in the Middle East, the European Commission recommends targeted and timely measures to tackle high energy prices. Generalised solutions based on a ‘scattergun’ approach are not desirable in this context. EU heads of state and government are meeting in Nicosia on Thursday for informal talks on the impact of the Middle East conflict. The day before, the European Commission will present its strategy to combat rising energy prices.

Alongside high energy prices, the focus is on the security of supply of fossil fuels. EU Commission President von der Leyen emphasised that the EU is paying a high price for its dependence on fossil fuels and must continue along the path it has chosen. Currently, 70% of the EU’s electricity comes from renewable sources and nuclear energy; both sectors are therefore to be expanded.

After Iran, for its part, reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping last Friday, US President Donald Trump decided not to do so for ships from Iran, whereupon Iran also resumed the blockade over the weekend.

When Iran announced that tankers could pass freely again, oil and gas prices fell sharply and the prices of CO₂ emission allowances rose accordingly, as higher carbon emissions were expected.

Now that the Strait of Hormuz is impassable once more, this is pushing the markets back in exactly the opposite directions.

Whether hostilities will resume by midweek or whether an agreement can still be reached in the coming days remains entirely open.

Price movements in the energy sector and for emission allowances will reflect all geopolitical developments in the Middle East accordingly.

Instrument	10/04/26	17/04/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	72.84 EUR	77.46 EUR	+4.62 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	67.00 EUR	68.50 EUR	+1.50 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	43.39 GBP	51.70 GBP	+8.31 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	112.84 GBP	101.90 GBP	-10.94 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	81.00 USD	78.45 USD	-2.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1725 USD	1.1765 USD	-0.0040 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team