Author: advantag

Dear Sir or Madam,

With the turn of the year, the new pricing for national emissions trading in Germany came into force, with auctions taking place for the first time with a price range of €55 to €65 per national emissions certificate.

As affected companies tend to use the upper range in their price calculations as a matter of commercial prudence, i.e. 65 euros per tonne of CO₂, the prices for fossil fuels at the pumps have been adjusted accordingly.

According to the German Automobile Club ADAC, this led to an average price increase of €0.034 per litre of petrol for E10 petrol, for example, to a nationwide average of €1.709 per litre of petrol at the beginning of the new year.

However, petrol prices are subject to even greater fluctuations due to the base commodity crude oil, which is also traded in US dollars on the world market.

According to the ADAC, the average price in 2022 was €1.86 due to the start of the war in Ukraine, €1.79 in the following year, and €1.74 per litre in 2024. In 2025, drivers with combustion engines paid an average of €1.69 per litre of E10 petrol.

Accordingly, the current prices for CO₂ have a rather minor effect on consumers, and it is therefore astonishing how many supposedly reputable newspapers are spreading panic with useless headlines suggesting to readers that they will no longer be able to afford to fill up their tanks from 2026 onwards.

The first auctions in the EU ETS will also take place in the first full trading week of the year. On Wednesday, the EEX will start auctioning 1,524,500 EUAs from the Polish quota; a total of 5,330,000 EUAs will be offered until Friday. Next week, 9,230,000 EUAs are to be auctioned over four days.

The first auction in the German national emissions trading system for emission allowances valid for 2025 under the 10% post-purchase option will take place next Tuesday, 13 January 2026.

Instrument	26/12/25	02/01/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	88.01 EUR	88.31 EUR	+0.30 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	75.77 EUR	76.00 EUR	+0.23 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	67.09 GBP	68.70 GBP	+1.61 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	72.50 GBP	73.31 GBP	+0.81 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	59.99 USD	60.34 USD	+0.35 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1772 USD	1.1720 USD	-0.0052 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

At the beginning of the decade, the global market for voluntary greenhouse gas offsetting lost a significant amount of trust and trading volume, not least because there were several projects that had more than dubious benefits for the climate.

The year 2026 is now expected to mark an important turning point for the voluntary CO₂ market, which has been on the rise again since 2024. After a period of uncertainty, criticism and volatility, the market is now maturing. Companies are setting ambitious climate targets and investing more heavily than ever before. At the same time, integrity requirements are becoming more stringent, regulatory authorities are becoming more active, and high-quality certificates remain scarce. As a result, the market is not only growing rapidly, but also rewarding projects that deliver real and sustainable climate protection.

This development gained significant momentum in 2025: companies retired more certificates in the first half of the year than ever before, and investment in new projects tripled. Asia in particular is emerging as a driving force here. By 2026, the market will be larger, more credible, more competitive and more strategic than ever before.

Despite differing perspectives, analysts agree that the market for voluntary carbon credits (VCM) is growing very rapidly. Roots Analysis, for example, assumes a cautious but confident scenario. The forecast sees the market reaching around 1.7 billion US dollars in 2026 – only a slight increase compared to 1.6 billion US dollars in 2025. By 2035, however, the market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 38% to almost 47.5 billion US dollars.

Analysts at Modor Intelligence even predict a global market volume of more than 120 billion US dollars in 2030, with companies in North America being the largest buyers.

The focus is on verified, high-quality certificates for emission reductions and nature-based solutions. Over 6,200 companies are implementing scientifically based climate targets, thereby contributing to growth.

If your company would also like to participate in the voluntary market for CO₂ certificates, we are available to advise you and offer an attractive portfolio with the most important standards, such as Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) or Gold Standard, at attractive conditions.

Prices for European emission allowances remained bullish during the trading week, which was shortened by the Christmas holidays.

EUAs rose by 1.1% last week, reaching a new high for the year of €88.88 on Wednesday.

This trading week is also shortened by the New Year, and we can currently expect trading to be rather quiet.

The Advantag team wishes you a good start to what we hope will be a healthy and successful new year in 2026!

Instrument	19/12/25	26/12/25	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	87.05 EUR	88.01 EUR	+0.96 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	74.74 EUR	75.77 EUR	+1.03 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	65.53 GBP	67.09 GBP	+1.56 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	72.08 GBP	72.50 GBP	+0.42 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	59.90 USD	59.99 USD	+0.09 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1709 USD	1.1772 USD	+0.0063 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

The EU Commission plans to extend the CO₂ border tax CBAM (Carbon Borderline Adjustment Mechanism) to 180 additional products from third countries from 2026, primarily to machinery and equipment with a high steel or aluminium content.

The intention behind this is to protect European industry and prevent relocation abroad (carbon leakage).

In addition, a decarbonisation fund is to support affected companies with CO₂ costs, financed by revenues from CBAM certificates and EU funds.

Furthermore, the use of aluminium and steel scrap to reduce emissions will also be taken into account in future. The CBAM will gradually replace the free CO₂ certificates for energy-intensive companies in the EU by 2034.

Another effect of the CBAM is that more and more third countries are establishing or expanding their own emissions trading systems in order to price greenhouse gas emissions in their own countries, so that less CO₂ levies are paid into the European CBAM and remain in their own treasuries.

The costs of CO₂ pricing under the CBAM are based on the EU ETS1, and its prices have been developing in a clearly visible upward channel since the summer, currently ranging between approximately €85.50 and €89.00 in the December 2026 benchmark future and moving slowly but steadily upwards.

Of course, there is always the possibility that the price will break out of a trend channel, but there are currently no technical or fundamental reasons to suggest this will happen.

For this reason, it could be of interest to compliance buyers to partially order for their own CO₂ portfolio below the EUR 90 mark.

In this week, which is shortened by the two Christmas holidays, trading on the EEX will end at 13:00 on 24 December 2025 and the last settlement on the ICE ENDEX will be at 14:00.

As usual, we are available for you until the close of trading and wish you a relaxing holiday season.

Instrument	12/12/25	19/12/25	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	86.04 EUR	87.05 EUR	+1.01 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	73.81 EUR	74.74 EUR	+0.93 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	58.30 GBP	65.53 GBP	+7.23 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	72.28 GBP	72.08 GBP	-0.20 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	60.66 USD	59.90 USD	-0.76 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1741 USD	1.1709 USD	-0.0032 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team