Month: February 2024

Dear Madam or Sir,

In 2023, the 1.5°C target of the Paris Climate Change Conference was broken and January 2024 was also the warmest January ever on record.

Even if some of the current warming can be attributed to the El Niño phenomenon, which began in the summer of 2023, the deviation from the average temperature is striking and it is currently not foreseeable that there will be a reduction in the global temperature rise.

And in the summer of 2024, La Niña appears to directly follow El Niño, with a stronger trade wind from South America towards the equator pushing the warm surface water further west towards Australia and Southeast Asia. This causes more cold water to rise from the depths in the south-east Pacific. As a result, there will be droughts in South America and significantly more precipitation in South-East Asia and Australia.

Even if it sounds far away, the change from El Niño to La Niña can also have an impact in Europe in the form of extreme weather events, which are favoured by the significantly higher average temperature.

In order to mitigate further global warming, it is important to have a functioning emissions trading system that is well controlled by high prices.

However, prices in EU emissions trading continued their bearish trend last week and headed south towards the EUR 50 mark. The persistent weather, which is clearly too mild for the time of year in Europa, and the associated reduction in the use of fossil fuels have further reduced demand and caused the price to slump by a further 8.7% at the end of the week.

As temperatures are also expected to remain relatively mild in the coming days, a counter-reaction can only be expected if there are unforeseen bullish impulses and the buying side becomes more visible.

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam

According to a survey conducted by the “Ludwig Erhard Ifo Centre for Social Market Economy” in Fuerth/Germany, 55 per cent of the Germans are in favour of Germany playing a pioneering role in climate protection, while a third are against it.

In order to achieve climate neutrality in Germany by 2045, 28% of respondents are in favour of subsidies, such as the promotion of electromobility. 16% are in favour of climate-friendly standards and bans on climate-damaging measures and just 8% are in favour of higher prices for CO2 emissions, although emissions trading in particular is the cheapest market-based instrument.

For this reason, the climate money needs to be introduced as soon as possible and not in 2026, as German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told newspaper “Welt am Sonntag” at the beginning of February.

The price of European carbon emission allowances only remained above the EUR 60 mark last week after breaking through a sideways-upward support line on Thursday, but this support also failed to hold on Friday. On a weekly closing price basis, EUAs lost a whopping 7.3%.

Technically, there is further support in the EUR 56.90 area, but sentiment is currently so negative that a new price slide is also possible.

The 200-day line is significantly higher at EUR 82.56 and even the 38-day line at EUR 70.23 is a long way from the current oversold price of just under EUR 59 in the December benchmark future.

The demand for the EEX auctions this week could be an indicator of whether price-conscious investors and speculators are now making more purchases again, which would also help the price out of the cellar.

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH