Month: September 2020

Dear Sir or Madam,

Oil giant BP has suggested that global demand for oil has already peaked. In addition, three different scenarios for the global energy transition up to 2050 were determined.

In the first scenario, the analysts assume that CO2 emissions from energy consumption will decrease by 70% by 2050, which would reduce global warming to well below 2°C. The second scenario assumes a reduction of 95% by 2050, which is accompanied in particular by political measures; this would reduce global warming to below 1.5°C. Scenario three assumes business as usual, in which CO2 emissions will peak in the mid-2020s and in 2050 would be 10% below those of 2018.

According to the analysts, the prices for CO2 emissions in particular will rise to 250 US dollars per ton in 2050. As a result of political interventions and the shift in social preferences, a decline in the share of hydrocarbons (coal, oil and natural gas) in the global energy system can be seen in all three scenarios. This is offset by a corresponding increase in renewable energies, which is increasingly electrifying the world. Hydrogen and rechargeable batteries will gain significantly in importance as energy carriers and the importance of fossil energy carriers such as coal, natural gas and oil will already decrease visibly in this decade.

Other analysts also see the rise in prices for CO2 emission rights, already in the near future in European emissions trading, the prices of which could therefore double by 2024.

Last week, prices fell slightly after they were quoted on Tuesday at EUR 30.78, just below the all-time high of 30.80. The new trading week also starts weaker and it remains to be seen when the bullish trend will prevail again, especially since almost 21 million EUA are to be auctioned in Leipzig this week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	11/09/2020	18/09/2020	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	28.24 EUR	27.98 EUR	-0.26 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	28.26 EUR	27.99 EUR	-0.027EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.31 EUR	0.31 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	39.72 USD	42.98 USD	+3.91 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1836 USD	1.1837 USD	+0.0001 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The German Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) was Federal Environment Minister from May 2012 to December 2013 and has been Federal Minister for Economics and Energy since March 2018, as the ministry has been called since December 2013.

Minister of Economic Affairs Altmaier has now announced with regard to the topic of climate protection that this has priority over all other topics and should be given higher priority in all political decisions. This is surprising in that Altmaier has been rather negative about stricter climate and environmental protection requirements in his position as Minister of Economics.

Nevertheless, he wants the “Charter for Climate Neutrality and Economic Power” to be passed with the help of the opposition before the federal elections next year. This includes the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, which is to be achieved through annual CO2 budgets from 2022, among other things. Public institutions should first become climate neutral as early as 2035. Climate-neutral companies are to be promoted with government grants. In addition, CO2 emissions are to be reduced by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990; previously the target was less ambitious at 40%. As a further measure, the price for CO2 emissions in the national emissions trading for buildings and transport is also to be increased. It remains to be seen how the trade associations will react to this move.

The price for European CO2 emission rights has visibly increased again last week after the losses of the previous week, as the European Commission has also proposed the greenhouse gas reduction target of 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 and now wants to present a draft in the coming days. The ENVI environmental committee had previously even agreed on 60%.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	04/09/2020	11/09/2020	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	27.41 EUR	28.24 EUR	+0.83 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	27.36 EUR	28.26 EUR	+0901 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.29 EUR	0.31 EUR	+0.02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	42.31 USD	39.72 USD	-2.59 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1839 USD	1.1836 USD	-0.0003 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Tree death in Germany, which has particularly affected spruce trees in many parts of the country due to the persistent drought since 2018, is a direct consequence of climate change. Even if there was a little more rainfall this year, it was unevenly distributed.

A major problem can be identified in those parts of the country where below-average precipitation meets above-average temperatures. Across Germany, August 2020 was on average 3.4 ° C warmer than the long-term average and just as warm as in 2015 or in the drought summer of 2018.

According to the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig, the situation in deeper layers around 1.80 meters is particularly critical, with the exception of the Bavarian south. This is where the drought is most felt, especially on the Lower Rhine and in Eastern Germany. But also in the upper classes, which are of particular importance for agriculture, North Rhine-Westphalia, among others, has major problems, such as the drought monitor of the Helmholtz Center at https://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=37937 shows.

In the current trading week, 21.7 million certificates are being offered for auction, including 810,500 EUAA for the aviation industry, which put the price for emission rights under pressure in the past week, as did falling energy prices.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	28/08/2020	04/09/2020	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	29.48 EUR	27.41 EUR	-2.07 EUR
EUA (December-2020-Future)	29.47 EUR	27.36 EUR	-2.11 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.29 EUR	0.29 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	45.85 USD	42.31 USD	-3.54 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1901 USD	1.1839 USD	-0.0062 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH