Month: February 2021

Dear Sir or Madam,

On the first day of taking over the Oval Office, not only did decency and class return to the White House, but President Joe Biden also once again made the US part of the important Paris Agreement of 2015.

Last Friday, this re-entry into the Federation of States, which have committed to implement climate protection in their own country, in order to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 ° C, took place.

António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, described the President’s step as a “key moment” on the way to more sustainable climate protection.

The USA is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world after China, although about one billion fewer people live in the USA than in the Asian People’s Republic.

John Kerry, the US government’s climate protection commissioner, and António Guterres attended an event on Friday to mark the re-entry of the US into the treaty and highlighted the importance of united action in the fight against global warming.

At EEX, the bids for the total of 15.1 million EUAs that went under the hammer in Leipzig normalized last week. The same volume will also be offered for auction in the new trading week.

Please note that from April 30th, 2021, EEX will no longer trade in CER certificates, as these can only be used in the EU ETS for compliance in the third trading period.

Afterwards, CERs can only be used within the framework of the CORSIA flight sector trading system, insofar as they are permitted or within the framework of the voluntary compensation of greenhouse gas emissions. For this reason, it is advisable for plant operators to check whether they have already completely exhausted their free quotas for exchanging CERs for EUAs, or whether they can still use the significant price differences to their advantage.

If you still have CERs that you cannot use, you should sell them, as they will be deleted from the EU ETS register accounts in the summer. CERs can then only be held on Kyoto registry accounts.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	12/02/2021	19/02/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	39.92 EUR	37.37 EUR	-2.55 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	40.02 EUR	47,40 EUR	-2.62 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.40 EUR	0.39 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	62.59 USD	62.67 USD	+0.08 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2118 USD	1.2117 USD	-0.0001 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the financial markets information service Bloomberg reported that there is a possibility that EU officials could consider proposing restrictions for speculators as part of the next renewal of the European financial market directive MiFID. Position limits should limit the driving force of speculative investors. The last major amendment did not come into force until 2018 with MiFID II and has classified European emission certificates such as EUAs, EUAAs and CERs as financial instruments.

If the possibly deliberate spread of this information were to put a stop to the strongly bullish market, the culprits would only have had extremely short-term success. Although the price fell to a value just above 37 euros on Friday morning, market participants showed what they thought of such a threat over the course of Friday and pushed prices to a new all-time high of 40.25 euros in the December future

The rise in the price of the EUAs was accompanied by a further significant increase in the price of crude oil, which has recaptured the mark of 60 US dollars – a value that was last seen in January 2020. And that despite the fact, that the International Energy Agency IEA cut its annual forecast by a further 200,000 barrels a day.

In the coming week, it remains to be seen whether the EUAs will be able to hold their ground above the 40 mark for longer or whether profit-taking will lead to a technical backlash such as a 50% retracement of the sharp rise since the beginning of February. In addition to the possible backlash, rising temperatures in Central Europe could put a strain on the buying mood, as could cautious purchases from the compliance system operator. The new trading week, however, starts with a green sign.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	05/02/2021	12/02/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	37.99 EUR	39.92 EUR	+1.93 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	38.20 EUR	40,02 EUR	+1.82 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.41 EUR	0.40 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	59.46 USD	62.59 USD	+3.13 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2049 USD	1.2118 USD	+0.0069 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

You can now see it clearly in the development of energy prices for German private households – energy costs are currently higher than they have been in 10 years. According to the comparison portal Verivox, prices have increased by almost 7% compared to December 2020.

Heating oil was right at the top of the list with an increase of 12%, closely followed by diesel with an average increase of 11.2% and gasoline was still just under 10%.

In addition to the increased exchange prices for crude oil, the national emissions trading in Germany is also a reason for the rise in energy prices and the EU’s CO2 emissions trading.

Last week, the prices in European emissions trading increased significantly by almost 16% to 38.20 euros and the start of the new trading week was still clearly bullish with a current new all-time high of 39.80 euros. All in all, prices have increased by around 60% since November 2020.

In addition to the already mentioned higher crude oil prices, which this morning cracked the 60 US dollar mark for Brent crude oil, the cold snap is another price driver for CO2 emission rights.

Market observers and analysts are currently in the process of adapting their forecasts of price developments to current market developments. An analyst for an oil hedge fund even brought up the € 100 mark that prices could reach this year, as Bloomberg wrote. The market also took this visibly bullish last week.

Most other market participants, however, are not quite as optimistic and tend to expect highs between 40 and 50 euros. From a purely chart-technical point of view, a price correction to the range of 35 euros for EUAs would currently be a common reaction, insofar as market participants with larger positions decide to take profits or large system operators delay their purchase decisions more and more. A correction – possibly after reaching the EUR 40 mark – could only be short-lived, as buyers would probably use this level for purchases again.

This week, the normal auction volume of 15,091,500 EUA will again be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX; It should remain exciting to see how strong the demand from market participants will be and whether auctions will be closed again well above the market price, as happened last week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	22/01/2021	29/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	34.15 EUR	32.88 EUR	-1.27 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	34.24 EUR	32.95 EUR	-1.29 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.36 EUR	0.35 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	55.18 USD	55.03 USD	-0.15 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2173 USD	1.2136 USD	-0.0037 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

It shouldn’t surprise anyone – in Germany, greenhouse gas emissions in the Corona year 2020 fell by more than 80 million tons to around 722 million tons, according to estimates by the “Agora Energiewende” think tank. Here Germany has even exceeded the ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to the reference year 1990 by the end of 2020; the current status of the data investigations showed that the total reduction was 42.3%.

Here, the corona-related emission reduction is awarded about 2/3 part. Without this effect, however, the decline would also have been another 25 million tons compared to 2019, which would, however, only mean an overall reduction of 37.8% compared to 1990.

Due to the further increase in the share of renewable energies of around 45% in 2020, the real reductions in emissions were only recorded in the electricity sector, as the think tank Agora emphasized. In addition, due to the further increase in the prices of CO2 certificates, coal-fired power generation was replaced by the use of gas-fired power plants as well as renewables, whereby gas is 40% less harmful to the climate than coal. Power generation from coal in Germany has been halved since 2015, particularly due to the European CO2 emissions trading system.

For the year 2021, however, Agora assumes that emissions will rise again, as emissions in the industrial and transport sector are expected to rise, which is why prices for carbon emissions will continue to rise.

The national German CO2 emissions trading, which starts this year for the building and transport sector at € 25 per ton, will continue to drive the trend towards building renovation, renewable heat production and electromobility, but more far-reaching climate policy measures would have to be taken to achieve this not endanger the climate targets.

In the past week, the prices for European emission rights moved between 32.22 and 34.69 euros per ton and closed on a weekly basis with a minus of 3.7%. On Friday the first auction of new EUAs of the 4th trading period took place, which was carried out for Germany. A total of 27 bidders have bid for the 2,651,000 EUA with a cover ratio of 1.59, whereby the final auction price was 33.51 euros and Germany received revenues of 88.8 million euros. This week, 15.1 million EUA from the quotas of the EU, Poland and Germany will be auctioned on all five trading days.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	22/01/2021	29/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	34.15 EUR	32.88 EUR	-1.27 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	34.24 EUR	32.95 EUR	-1.29 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.36 EUR	0.35 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	55.18 USD	55.03 USD	-0.15 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2173 USD	1.2136 USD	-0.0037 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH