Month: November 2018

Dear Sir or Madam,

Now the EU has also signed the Brexit treaty with Great Britain, thus paving the way for exit from the EU on 29.03.2019. However, whether the ultimately sensible path for both sides can be brought to an end or whether a disorderly exit will still take place, ultimately depends on the approval of the British House of Representatives and the EU Parliament. Assuming that the EU Parliament agrees, the biggest risk is now in London, as already in the ranks of the advocates and the opponents of Brexit a lot of resistance stirs. These uncertainties should continue to occupy the financial markets until the final security.

On Thursday, the World Weather Organization WMO has reported the frightening fact that the concentration of climate-damaging greenhouse gases is higher than ever and no trend reversal is discernible. According to the WMO, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere rose from 403.3 ppm (particles per million) in 2017 to 405.5, an increase of a whopping 46 percent compared to pre-industrial levels (before 1750). Furthermore, since 1990, radiation propulsion has increased by a significant 41 percent due to long-lived greenhouse gases. The radiation drive is the energy balance of the earth to understand; it includes all forces that either warm or cool our planet. According to the WMO, the most important greenhouse gas CO2 contributed a total of 2/3 of this. Methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, contributed 17 percent, reaching 257 percent of pre-industrial levels. It arises mainly in the context of livestock farming.

Recently, the Earth experienced a similarly high level of CO2 three to five million years ago, as evidenced by ice drilling and analysis of fossils. This resulted in a 3 – 4 °C higher global average temperature, which caused a 10 – 20 meters higher sea level. This heat phase lasted for 3,000 years. However, according to the scientists, the CO2 concentration has never risen so abruptly in Earth’s history as in the past 70 years, caused by the rise of global industry.

Regrettably, very few people use this knowledge as the basis for their daily consumer decisions.

Brent crude oil prices peaked at $ 86.44 a barrel in early October, with the price of fossil fuel plummeting since then, dropping just under 12% last week to $ 59.00. This looked to US President Donald Trump as his merit, which sweetened him the Thanksgiving weekend in Florida. One reason for this is the US stocks, which are at annual high. However, the prices will put pressure on OPEC, which meets in two weeks and has appropriate funding cuts on the agenda.

Despite this development of Oil, the price of carbon emission rights of the European genus in the past week has clearly set in motion and broke the barrier of 20 euros last Wednesday. After a short four-week high at 21.39 euros, the emission rights closed at just over 20 euros.

It will be interesting to see how the auction demand develops in the coming days, as the last auction of emission rights this year takes place on the EEX Leipzig in exactly three weeks, on 17/12/2018.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-11-16	2018-11-16	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	19.11 EUR	20.18 EUR	+1.07 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	19.11 EUR	20.21 EUR	+1.10 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.26 EUR	0.27 EUR	+0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	66.98 USD	59.00 USD	-7.98 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1414 USD	1.1337 USD	-0.0077 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, the German Federal Cabinet adopted uniform regulations regarding driving bans on diesel cars. This should exclude cars with hardware retrofits from the driving ban. At the same time, the Federal Cabinet decided on Thursday to amend the Federal Immission Control Act. The bill seeks to exclude diesel cars of emission standards Euro 4 and 5 from the ban, insofar as they emit nitric oxide of less than 270 milligrams per kilometer. Average Euro 5 diesel currently emits about 900 milligrams of the harmful gas per kilometer. However, Jürgen Resch from Deutsche Umwelthilfe, which initiated the lawsuit, assumes that these will also be affected from 2020 onwards, as these too sometimes exceed the limit values ​​by a factor of 25.

Furthermore, the Federal Immission Control Act should be amended in such a way that the limit from which driving bans are issued should not come from a concentration of 40 milligrams NO2 per cubic meter of air, which in 2017 affected a total of 65 German cities, lifted up to 50 milligrams, which only 15 cities crossed. Hereby, the German legislator opposes the regulations of the EU. Whether this is permanent, future will show.

The years of sitting out of politics has now caused a new low, as now in Essen, the busy federal highway A40 is threatened by driving bans.

Naturally, the German car industry prefers to sell new cars to the drivers concerned, which makes no sense from the point of view of climate protection and resource conservation, merely promotes sales of new cars and shifts nitrogen production to other countries.

Developments in European carbon allowance prices were initially characterized by better auction demand last week, with prices breaking the € 20 mark at the start of the week and rising to € 20.65 per tonne. Afterwards, Brexit once again gave cause for annoyance. The EU and UK negotiators negotiated a Brexit treaty that was an agreement on the lowest common denominator for both sides.

However, the Prime Minister came under pressure after the resignation of ministers and further threats of resignation, with a vote of no confidence in the room. The EU has already signaled that the requested renegotiations on the part of the EU would not lead to any significant change.

At the end of last week, this put pressure on the emission allowance prices, which caused a slight drop compared to the previous week. The start of the week is also characterized by losses and it is expected that further development in the UK will have an impact on this week’s trading activity.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-11-09	2018-11-16	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	19.45 EUR	19.11 EUR	-0.34 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	19.50 EUR	19.11 EUR	-0.39 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.27 EUR	0.26 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	69.67 USD	66.98 USD	-2.69 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1335 USD	1.1414 USD	+0.0079 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The persistent lack of water keeps Germany’s longest river, the Rhine, under control, even though there has been some precipitation in recent days. The previous low-rain period has meant that the Rhine for inland navigation can only be navigated with a significantly lower loading volume. This leads to more ship traffic, as not all goods can be transported alternatively by rail and road, but also to supply bottlenecks. Along the Rhine, there were already significant difficulties in the supply of fuel at the filling stations in recent weeks. In some places, diesel and petrol were temporarily unavailable at the pumps. Therefore, the Federal Ministry of Economics has released access to 70,000 tons of gasoline, 150,000 tons of diesel and 56,000 tons of kerosene from the German crude oil reserve. These quantities have already been almost completely taken over by the petroleum industry. A relaxation of the situation is not in sight despite current rainfall.

The advancement of global warming with longer periods of drought, associated with melting glaciers in the Alps, could in future cause significantly greater problems for European inland navigation and thus security of supply, which is why debates are already underway on shallower vessels.

From 3 to 14 December, the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP 24) will take place in Katowice, Poland. Prior to this, the IPCC was consulted, which came to the conclusion that only by rapid and drastic emission reductions in all areas of our society, the world community can still achieve the 1.5-degree target. At the current rate of heating, however, 1.5 degrees would be reached as early as the 2040s.

Prices for European greenhouse gas emission allowances continued to rise nearly 14% after last week’s correction last week, after a half-year low of EUR 15.10 a week earlier. However, the price increase failed on Friday at the 20-euro mark, which, however, could be broken this morning without any problems. The further weakening oil prices and the above-average warm November do not currently seem to exert any negative influence on the price trend.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-11-02	2018-11-09	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	17.08 EUR	19.45 EUR	+2.37 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	17.08 EUR	19.50 EUR	+2.42 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.27 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	72.75 USD	69.67 USD	-3.08 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1387 USD	1.1335 USD	-0.0052 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

 

 

 

Dear Sir or Madam,

A politically interesting time is coming up this week and in the following days. In the US tomorrow, the “Midterms”, which decides on the occupation of the House of Representatives and a good third of US Senators. Here it remains to be seen whether the Democrats will gain the majority in the House of Representatives, even if the opposition often scored in the middle between the presidential elections.

And it will be interesting to see who in the last remaining German People’s Party, the CDU, will take over the party leadership in the future after the surprisingly announced withdrawal of Chancellor Angela Merkel. The more urgently the will within the party for change comes to light, the more uncertain it is whether its chancellorship will continue until the end of the legislative period. And this is not only relevant at national level, but also from a European point of view.

The oil price has lost 12% to about $ 72 a barrel in the last month. The sanctions against Iran have lost their horror and the OPEC countries are currently promoting record volumes. The US and Russia, with 11.4 million barrels a day, compete in a true race for fossil fuel business. In addition, there should be exceptions for major industrialized countries with regard to Iranian oil.

In addition, NASA forecasts for Central Europe temperatures in November that are 3°C warmer than the long-term average, resulting in lower fossil fuel consumption and thus lower greenhouse gas emissions from the heat supply.

All this has further strengthened the bears and lowered the prices for CO2 emission rights by another € 1.20 per tonne compared to the previous week. The half-year low was even seen at $ 15.10 last Thursday, after which the price was significantly stronger on Friday with a gain of two euros.

 

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	2018-10-26	2018-11-02	Change
EUA (Spotmarket)	18.28 EUR	17.08 EUR	-1.20 EUR
EUA (December-2018-Future)	18.28 EUR	17.08 EUR	-1.20 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)	0.28 EUR	0.28 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	77.41 USD	72.75 USD	-4.66 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1401 USD	1.1387 USD	-0.0014 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or +44.20.79790283.

 

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH