Tag: CORSIA

Dear Sir or Madam,

Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell only slightly in 2025 compared with the previous year, by just under one million tonnes, or 0.1 per cent, to 649 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. Since 1990, emissions have thus been reduced by 48 per cent.

The energy sector reduced its emissions thanks to increased use of renewable energy; however, transport and buildings caused more emissions. German forests are now once again absorbing more CO₂ than they release. Overall, the climate target remains achievable by 2030, but this will require additional climate protection measures: from 2026 onwards, the annual reduction must average 42 million tonnes of CO₂ to meet the climate protection targets.

In 2025, emissions from the energy sector fell by 0.6 million tonnes to 189.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The expansion of wind and solar energy increased, but low-wind conditions resulted in less wind power than in the previous year. A record figure of nearly 21 gigawatts of new wind power permits was recorded. The Federal Network Agency also granted approvals for 2,000 kilometres of new power lines.

The transport and buildings sectors, which are subject to pricing under the national emissions trading scheme, remain problematic. In 2025, the transport sector generated 146.3 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents – an increase of 2.1 million tonnes. Electric mobility grew strongly and prevented an even greater rise in emissions. Over 180,000 public charging points are now available and almost one in five new cars is fully electric – an increase of 45 per cent compared to 2024. New models, high fuel costs and government subsidies could further drive this trend.

Last year, emissions in the buildings sector rose by 3.4 million tonnes to 103.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, mainly due to cold heating periods. The switch to climate-friendly energy sources is progressing slowly, but heat pumps are gaining acceptance and, for the first time, have overtaken gas heating systems with 299,000 sales – a 55 per cent increase on the previous year. Technological progress, falling costs and more installation options are driving this development.

Last year, industrial emissions fell to 144.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, mainly due to the persistently weak economy – that is 5.6 million tonnes or 3.8 per cent less than the previous year. The main factors were lower production figures in energy-intensive sectors and a decline in the use of fossil fuels. Key future technologies here too are electrification, green hydrogen and low-carbon processes, although their implementation has so far progressed only slowly.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and waste management, by contrast, remained virtually unchanged compared with 2024.

Last week, prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) benchmark contract fluctuated within a range of €67.60 to €74.48, closing at €69.16 – a moderate decrease of 2% compared to the previous week.

As in previous weeks, the war in the Middle East was the key driver, particularly affecting prices in the energy markets and consequently influencing industrial production and consumer behaviour.

The US and Israel have so far failed to secure the Strait of Hormuz for the passage of tankers, which continues to disrupt a fifth of global oil trade.

A swift end to the war is currently not expected, as Iran still has sufficient capacity to defend itself and to launch additional attacks on US-allied states in the region.

As long as this situation persists, prices for crude oil, gas and the associated refinery products such as heating oil, diesel and petrol will remain at a high level.

Provided there are no further fundamental developments regarding the Middle East conflict and no new political statements on the EU ETS, it is highly likely that EUAs will continue to trade in the broad range of around 70 euros this week.

A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX across all five trading days this week.

Instrument	06/03/26	13/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.57 EUR	69.16 EUR	-1.41 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	68.50 EUR	66.46 EUR	-2.04 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	40.09 GBP	39.54 GBP	-0.55 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	123.67 GBP	122.19 GBP	-1.48 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	74.17 USD	81.97 USD	+7.80 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1618 USD	1.1417 USD	-0.0201 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

At the recent World Climate Conference in Belém, Brazil, a new mechanism for international climate protection projects was developed, known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, or PACM for short. This is the successor to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which was adopted in 1997 by the Kyoto Protocol and came into effect in 2001.

The PACM enables countries, companies and organisations to invest in verified emission reduction or removal projects in order to achieve their climate targets. Two types of certificates are issued: Authorised Emission Reductions (AERs) and Mitigation Contribution Units (MCUs).

Strict testing and approval procedures are designed to strengthen confidence in such project mechanisms. The tradable CO₂ certificates can be used not only for partial crediting towards countries’ reduction targets, but also for aviation under the CORSIA mechanism. Companies can also offset their greenhouse gas emissions with AERs and MCUs, although it is still uncertain whether there will be proportional use in the future within the framework of the EU ETS emission allowance trading scheme.

Last week, the UN climate protection organisation UNFCCC approved the first emission allowances to be issued under the United Nations’ new PACM mechanism. The first project involves clean cooking stoves in Myanmar, which were financed by South Korean companies. It is the first of a total of 165 projects that have been transferred from the previous Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which expires at the end of this year, to the PACM.

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s oil trade passes, is blocked. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is threatening to attack any ship that attempts to pass through the strait. Transport flows are therefore significantly impaired. A prolonged blockade threatens to cause supply bottlenecks and have negative consequences for the global economy. Additional interest rate hikes are unlikely, while interest rate cuts could be delayed.

The energy markets have already reacted visibly to this. Even though Brent crude oil rose relatively moderately to USD 74.17 in December futures, the spot market closed at USD 92.61 last Friday. The British gas benchmark contract rose by almost 50% to GBP 123.67 last week, April deliveries rose to GBP 137.42.

To reduce the economic impact, China, among others, has stopped exports of diesel and petrol from its largest refineries, and the US government is attempting to limit the consequences of the war on global energy supplies by securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz with state risk insurance and naval escorts.

Despite these circumstances, which are weighing on the economy, EU emission allowances appear to be bottoming out at around €70, which is why they closed the week with a small gain of 0.4%.

On the fundamental side, developments in the Middle East will remain important this week.

Instrument	27/02/26	06/03/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.29 EUR	70.57 EUR	+0.28 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	67.10 EUR	68.50 EUR	+1.40 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	46.14 GBP	40.09 GBP	-6.05 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	82.48 GBP	123.67 GBP	+41.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	73.15 USD	74.17 USD	+1.02 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1806 USD	1.1618 USD	-0.0188 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Even if one has almost lost faith in it, there are still functioning institutions in the United States.

On Friday, the US Supreme Court rejected key tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The court ruled that the White House could not use an old emergency law to impose ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on almost all trading partners last year. According to the ruling, tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China were also illegal.

The ruling was passed by a vote of 6 to 3. Three conservative judges rejected Trump’s argument despite their affinity for the tradition of a strong presidency.

Donald Trump now appears visibly shaken, and the Supreme Court’s ruling has dealt the US president a severe narcissistic blow, as was evident from his behaviour at the subsequent press conference in relation to his offensive remarks about the judges.

Trump initially wanted to impose tariffs of 10%, then 15% on Saturday, but this is only possible for a period of 150 days under the new legal basis that has been brought into play. Legal countermeasures are considered likely.

The US will almost certainly face a wave of lawsuits from affected companies in the coming weeks, with the total amount in dispute estimated at US$175 billion.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz now wants to fly to the US at the beginning of March, where this issue will also be on the agenda.

Last week, the German Chancellor once again clearly committed himself to carbon emissions trading systems, even if it is to be reformed. He is also counting on a redistribution of revenues through the creation of a ‘climate fund’ paid to the households to increase acceptance among the population while maintaining the steering effect.

Meanwhile, German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider is calling in Brussels for the chemical industry to be given more free emission allowances than previously planned. According to the SPD politician, the industry is under pressure worldwide, which is why more realistic guidelines for the allocation of emission allowances are needed in the short term.

This measure could relieve the chemical industry, but it should not be the only one. Schneider emphasised that emissions trading successfully combines climate protection and economic strength. Nevertheless, the framework conditions must be adjusted so that Germany and Europe remain competitive as chemical production locations. However, the total number of CO₂ emission allowances is to remain unchanged.

All in all, the market for EU emission allowances responded positively to these political signals in the past trading week and, after bottoming out at around €69, closed higher for the first time since the third calendar week of 2026 on a weekly closing basis.

EUAs gained 4.4% and recovered above the psychologically important €70 mark on Wednesday after hitting a nine-month low of 68.11 in the benchmark contract on Monday.

The markets have not yet reacted to the 15% tariffs announced over the weekend, so this trading week is likely to be characterised by corresponding volatility.

Instrument	13/02/26	20/02/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	70.68 EUR	73.78 EUR	+3.10 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	65.82 EUR	66.64 EUR	+0.82 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	45.50 GBP	47.62 GBP	+2.12 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	78.35 GBP	80.98 GBP	+2.63 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	64.69 USD	67.43 USD	+2.74 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1869 USD	1.1728 USD	-0.0087 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sirs and Madams,

The vulnerability of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) could not have been better demonstrated than in the past two weeks.

As soon as politicians make statements that undermine the effectiveness of the well-functioning emissions trading system, the market reacts with extreme volatility.

After significant price losses had already occurred when rumours circulated that the EU ETS could be weakened in the reform proposals in the middle of this year, as there would be scope to reduce the target of greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 85% by 2040 instead of 90%, there would be more leeway, recent statements from politicians have again influenced the price.

In particular, comments made by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz last Wednesday regarding a ‘postponement of the EU ETS’ triggered another significant price slump in the last two days of last week, causing prices for EU emission allowances to plummet to almost the €70 mark.

We can only guess at what Friedrich Merz meant by his statement. Either he was referring to a further postponement of EU ETS 2 or, in the case of EU ETS 1, to a reduction in the linear reduction factor for certificate quantities from 4.3% to 4.4%; perhaps he was also referring to the extension of free certificate allocations to industry.

The pressure exerted on Brussels by parts of the chemical industry was fuelled in particular by the realisation that sufficient lobbying can achieve a great deal, as demonstrated by the automotive lobby in the case of the ban on combustion engines.

At the industry summit in Antwerp, however, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not announce the desired concessions. Instead, more funds from EU ETS revenues are to flow into the affected industries, as EU member states have invested only five per cent of the approximately €260 billion generated to date in greenhouse gas reduction in industry.

Until final decisions are made, the volatility of the EU ETS will remain high and react to corresponding statements on the reform plans.

This currently provides compliance buyers with favourable buying opportunities and speculators with opportunities for profitable trades.

In the past trading week, the price of EUAs lost a further 10.2%; since the 27-month high of €93.80 in the benchmark contract on 15 January 2026, the price has fallen by as much as 24.8% to its lowest level since the beginning of May last year.

The EUA2 futures contract also fell by 11.2%, while UK emissions allowances (UKA) fell by almost 20% in the wake of the EUAs.

This trading week, it will be interesting to see whether the EUAs can hold the €70 mark; otherwise, the next relevant technical support levels are slightly above the €60 mark. Technical resistance to the upside is particularly evident at the 200-day line, which currently stands at €79.06.

A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days this week.

Instrument	06/02/26	13/02/26	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	78.73 EUR	70.68 EUR	-8.05 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	74.09 EUR	65.82 EUR	-8.27 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	56.69 GBP	45.50 GBP	-11.19 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	80.29 GBP	78.35 GBP	-1.94 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	65.26 USD	64.69 USD	-0.57 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1816 USD	1.1869 USD	+0.0053 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team