Tag: CORSIA

Dear Sir or Madam,

Although it is not a topic often discussed in public, China has also introduced a national emissions trading scheme similar to the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which is being gradually expanded to include, amongst others, the chemical and petrochemical industries. As a result, around 80 per cent of Chinese emissions are set to be subject to pricing in the not-too-distant future.

In the first seven months of this year, around 930 million allowances were traded on the Chinese ETS, each representing the emission of one tonne of CO₂ or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases.

In this way, China also aims to create incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to drive forward decarbonisation. For it is not only Europe that is suffering increasingly from the consequences of human caused climate change, but China too. Heatwaves and the ever-melting glaciers in the Himalayas are also posing immense challenges for businesses and domestic agriculture there.

Last week, oil and gas prices rose further, and the fact that Germany’s gas storage facilities are currently barely half full, whilst the Strait of Hormuz is allowing only a few cargo ships through, is unlikely to prompt prices to fall.

Despite rising prices for fossil fuels, EUAs have remained well above the 80-euro mark and recorded a gain of around one per cent on a closing price basis for the week.

Last week, the 65-euro rule in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme came to an end, meaning that only a volume of 10,670,528 nEZ26 was allocated at the maximum price of 65 euros. The volume of bids fell by around 18 million allowances to 528 million, resulting in an allocation rate of 2.02 per cent with a cover ratio of 49.5.

In our penultimate edition of the market report dated 10 August 2026, we wrote that the final auction within the price corridor of 55 to 65 euros was expected to take place on 2 September 2026, in accordance with the BEHG, with 21 million allowances, provided the remaining volume fell below the threshold of 32,013,000. However, we failed to take into account that two further auctions are due to take place from that point onwards, meaning that the final auction will take place on 9 September 2026. We apologise for this oversight. Consequently, 10.67 million shares will be auctioned in each of the remaining three auctions.

From calendar week 45 onwards, unlimited additional purchases can be made for one month at a price of 68 euros on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The first auction will therefore be on 3 November, and the last on 3 December 2026.

Next year, under the 10 per cent top-up scheme, certificates held in the relevant register account as at 31 December 2026 may be ordered at a price of 70 euros.

Instrument	14/08/26	21/08/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	81.79 EUR	82.61 EUR	+0.82 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	58.89 GBP	59.49 GBP	+0.60 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	156.34 GBP	168.30 GBP	+11.96 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	84.39 USD	89.99 USD	+5.60 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1579 USD	1.1678 USD	+0.0099 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, the German Federal Cabinet approved the amendments to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) that had been on the cards for some time. Originally, the price of national emission allowances was to be aligned with the price of emission allowances in the EU ETS1 from 2027; now, however, prices are to remain within a range of €55.00 to €65.00, as has been the case this year.

Another new development is that the maximum bid volume has been reduced from 50 per cent of the respective auction volume to 20 per cent, a limit which must not be exceeded by any individual bidder. As has been the case to date, allowances with the year code 2027 may be used for previous years, but national emission certificates (nEZ) from 2026 cannot be used to meet compliance obligations in 2027.

Furthermore, in 2027, bids may only be submitted for delivery to a compliance account held by companies subject to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG); however, this is already the practice for intermediaries such as ourselves, whereby delivery is made directly by EEX/ECC to the client’s registry account.

This is intended to ensure a higher allocation per auction for compliance buyers, in contrast to this year, and to minimise the influence of speculative market participants.

This week, for the first time in the national emissions trading scheme, only the volume of 10,671,000 will be released onto the market via the EEX, as the €65 rule – which previously guaranteed a double allocation – no longer applies.

Meanwhile, in the EU ETS1, prices fell moderately by 1.8% last week, as prices for fossil fuels rose significantly amid fears of a renewed escalation in the Iran conflict. British gas rose by 10.5% and Brent crude oil by 5.5% on a week-end closing price basis.

As the Trump administration is in the midst of an election campaign and therefore wishes to conceal the failure of the war in Iran as best it can ahead of the mid-term elections on 3 November, an early end to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not to be expected.

Demand for fossil fuels tends to rise during the winter months, which means prices could rise significantly as autumn approaches, in turn negatively impacting global economic growth.

The fact that EUAs have nevertheless remained stubbornly above the 80-euro mark for the past month is currently largely due to technical factors, although trading volumes are currently rather low due to the holiday season.

This week, a total of 9,120,000 EUAs will be put up for auction on the EEX across all five trading days.

Instrument	07/08/26	14/08/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	83.29 EUR	81.79 EUR	-1.50 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	60.50 GBP	58.89 GBP	-1.61 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	141.47 GBP	156.34 GBP	+14.87 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	79.99 USD	84.39 USD	+4.40 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1558 USD	1.1579 USD	+0.0021 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The European Energy Exchange has published the auction calendar for the coming year for the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS1).

A total of 339,476,500 EUAs are to be auctioned via the common auction platform CAP4, comprising 77,631,500 EUAs for Germany and 49,770,500 EUAs for Poland.

From January to August 2027, each CAP4 auction will comprise 2,043,000 EUAs, 1,290,000 EUAs for Germany and 1,685,000 allowances for Poland. The volumes for September to December 2027 are provisional and are expected to change as a result of future adjustments to the market stability reserve.

This week, a total of 7,739,500 EUAs will be offered for auction on the EEX over four trading days, as the Polish auction is not taking place this time.

A further 10,671,000 German national emission allowances will also be put up for auction next Wednesday. This week marks the final application of the €65 rule, which is expected to result in twice the usual volume being allocated once again.

Consequently, there will in all likelihood be around 43 million allowances remaining next week, and only the 10.67 million allowances scheduled for auction will be put up for auction in the following week.

Last week, demand from the 111 bidders in total rose to a volume of 535 million allowances, which is why the allocation of the 21.3 million nEZ26 allowances fell to 3.99 per cent.

Should demand continue to rise or even simply remain stable, this would mean that, for the auction on 19 August, the allocation of the 10.7 million allowances would fall below 2 per cent.

In accordance with Section 12(5) of the BEHV, the €65 rule no longer applies if the remaining auction volume prior to an auction date amounts to less than one third of the

total auction volume (64,028,413 nEZ).

Currently, 64,035,915 nEZ are still available ahead of the upcoming Wednesday auction, which is why this rule does not apply and, consequently, the volume – which is approximately double – should come into effect.

On average, 21,341,554 nEZ were issued in the previous six auctions. As 42,694,361 allowances will still be available after this week’s auction, if this average were to hold, 32,023,361 nEZ26 remaining after next week’s auction (calendar week 34) – approximately 10,000 more than the 32,013,000 nEZ, below which all remaining allowances will be auctioned off.

Consequently, a further 10,671,000 nEZ26 will be auctioned in calendar week 35, and the final auction is expected to take place in calendar week 36 on 2 September, with a volume of 21.4 million allowances.

Instrument	31/07/26	07/08/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	81.26 EUR	83.29 EUR	+2.03 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	59.09 GBP	60.50 GBP	+1.41 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	148.60 GBP	141.47 GBP	-7.13 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	82.23 USD	79.99 USD	-2.24 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1529 USD	1.1558 USD	+0.0029 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

It is not only in southern Europe that rapidly advancing climate change – with countless forest fires this year – is demonstrating what Europe must prepare for in the future; the effects are also clearly evident in Germany.

The Rhine, at 1,233 km in length the most important waterway on our continent, is reaching historic lows in cities such as Duesseldorf, Duisburg and Cologne, amongst others. On Saturday, for instance, a water level of just 20 centimetres was recorded on the Rhine in Duesseldorf, the capital of North Rhine-Westphalia.

The consequences are serious not only for shipping, which in some cases requires six vessels to carry the same volume of cargo that would normally be transported by a single vessel. Industry, which relies on raw materials transported via the Rhine waterway, must also adapt to this situation.

Furthermore, agriculture in the Rhineland and other parts of Europe is struggling with the ongoing drought, not least due to falling groundwater levels, which are making it increasingly difficult to provide the necessary irrigation for fields.

It is therefore urgently necessary to use the revenue from CO2 emissions trading for both decarbonisation and the adaptation of businesses and society to climate change, rather than to plug budget deficits.

Last Wednesday, a further 1.387 billion euros flowed into the German Federal Government’s Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), as a further 21.34 million national emission allowances (nEZ26) were auctioned on the EEX at a price of 65.00 euros.

110 bidders submitted a total bid volume of 515,902,199 nEZ26 at a price of 65.00 euros; the allocation rate was 4.14 per cent, down from 4.63 per cent the previous week.

Of the original 192 million nEZ26, 85.4 million allowances now remain to be auctioned in future auctions within the price corridor of 55 to 65 euros. As the volume of bids is expected to remain high and is likely to rise further, the remaining volume will be almost halved in the next two auctions.

From calendar week 34 onwards, the €65 rule will no longer apply; under this rule, the allocated quantity is more or less doubled when the winning bid price reaches €65.

In accordance with the provisions of the German Fuel Emissions Trading Regulation (BEHV), only two further auction dates will take place if the total auction volume remaining after an auction date falls below three times the volume allocated per auction date (32,013,000 nEZ). Consequently, Wednesday 26 August 2026 is expected to be the last opportunity to purchase allowances at a price of 65 euros.

In the EU ETS1, prices for EUAs in the benchmark contract fluctuated last week within a range of 81.10 to 84.19 euros. On a closing price basis, EUAs fell by 2.6%.

This week, a total of 9,119,500 EUAs from the EU, Polish and German allowances will be offered on all five trading days on the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX).

Instrument	24/07/26	31/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	83.40 EUR	81.26 EUR	-2.14 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	59.83 GBP	59.09 GBP	-0.74 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	159.00 GBP	148.60 GBP	-10.40 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	85.52 USD	82.23 USD	-3.29 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1371 USD	1.1529 USD	+0.0158 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Despite the European Commission’s reform proposals on 17 July aimed at weakening the European Emissions Trading System, prices in the EU ETS¹ rose significantly last week. The price of European emission allowances fluctuated last week between €78.76 and €86.91 in the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) benchmark contract and closed the week up 5.4 per cent, well above the €80 mark.

During these price movements, technical resistance levels were easily breached, and both the 200-day moving average and the 38-day moving average are heading towards the €80 mark. The 200-day moving average was last seen above the 80-euro mark in September 2024, whilst the 38-day moving average was last seen above it in early April this year.

From a technical analysis perspective, it will therefore be interesting to see whether EUAs attempt once again this trading week to reach the previous week’s highs or move towards the 80-euro mark.

This week, due to the scheduled absence of Poland’s Wednesday auction, a total of 7,739,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over the remaining four trading days, representing a 15.1 per cent decline compared with the previous week.

Last week’s Wednesday auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme resulted, for the first time, in an allocation below the 5 per cent mark; participants received just 4.63 per cent of the bid volumes.

As in previous auctions, 10,671,000 nEZ26 were originally offered; as all bidders submitted bids at €65 this time, 21.3 million allowances were again allocated.

This means that 44 per cent of the total volume of 192 million national emission allowances offered for auction during the auction phase has now been allocated.

Compared with the previous week, the total bid volume increased by around 50 million allowances to 461 million, and it is expected that there will be further increases, meaning that the percentage allocation rate will continue to fall.

As 460 million allowances are significantly more than the total compliance requirement – which is expected to be around 300 million allowances this year –

we expect that both speculative market participants are bidding in high volumes and that compliance buyers are also submitting bids for a multiple of their actual requirements in order to secure the best possible supply at the price of 65 euros.

Last year, a total of 294 million national emission allowances were sold.

Instrument	17/07/26	24/07/26	Change
EUA (December-2026-Future)	79.11 EUR	83.40 EUR	+4.29 EUR
EUA2 (December-2027-Future)	66.55 EUR	66.55 EUR	+0.00 EUR
nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates)	65.00 EUR	65.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-2026-Future (UK))	58.70 GBP	59.83 GBP	+1.13 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future)	143.54 GBP	159.00 GBP	+15.46 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future)	83.17 USD	85.52 USD	+2.35 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1439 USD	1.1371 USD	+0.0068 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team