Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (25/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The COP29 World Climate Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, ended last weekend after an extension. The two most important results are, firstly, that the industrialised countries are to provide a total of 300 billion US dollars a year until 2035 for climate protection and adaptation to the consequences of climate change. Secondly, the parties agreed on new rules for global emissions trading, whereby companies and states can offset their greenhouse gas emissions by financing climate protection projects in other regions.

But the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is also helping to finance climate protection: the EU has given Greece the green light for its decarbonisation fund, which will be financed with 25 million EUAs that were not allocated to the country in the previous phase of the EU ETS. The proceeds from this should pave the way for the climate neutrality of the Greek islands.

EU ETS prices temporarily exceeded the 70-euro mark last week. One of the reasons for this was the European Commission’s decision not to increase the volume of the approximately 86.7 million allowances to be auctioned under REPowerEU in the near term, as the market had expected, although the price in recent months was below the target price of more than 70 euros.

We would like to point out once again that only four auctions of national emission allowances valid for 2024 will take place in the next two weeks; the last auction will be on Thursday, 5 December 2024. After that, regular purchases on the EEX will only be possible for 10% of the quantity that will be on your registry account on 31 December 2024.

In agreement with the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, the German Emissions Trading Authority has now decided to postpone the start of fixed-price auctions of national emission allowances on the EEX to 2025. The background to this is the ongoing parliamentary legislative process to amend the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (TEHG-Europarechtsanpassungsgesetz 2024).

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument15/11/2422/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.01 EUR69.27 EUR+1.26 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.24 USD0.32 USD+0.08 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.21 USD0.25 USD+0.04 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)71.20 USD74.59 USD+3.39 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0540 USD1.0414 USD-0.0126 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (18/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

On the first day of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, almost 200 countries agreed on new rules for global emissions trading, even though many of the framework conditions and rules still need to be worked out.

This emissions trading should enable states and companies to purchase CO2 certificates from climate protection projects and thereby offset their emissions. As with voluntary emissions trading, a certificate is generated for each tonne of CO2 or its equivalent of greenhouse gases avoided, which can then be traded and retired.

These rules have been in the works since the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, and since they were still very inadequate at last year’s COP28 in Dubai, they were rejected by the EU and developing countries.

Last Monday’s agreement has now laid the foundations for a global emissions trading market that functions according to international rules and only allows high-quality carbon credits to be used to offset unavoidable emissions, or emissions that cannot be avoided at a disproportionate cost.

Prices for European emission allowances have remained almost unchanged on a weekly basis, with the December benchmark contract for EUA futures continuing to move in an upward technical pennant within a range of 65.39 to 68.80 euros.

If this formation is maintained, the price would move in the range of approx. 65 to 69 euros this week, the 200-day line, which currently stands at 65.12, could also provide support. In addition, a total of 14,582,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days.

For the procurement of national emission allowances for 2024, there are only six auctions left on Tuesdays and Thursdays at the EEX, in which we can participate for you. The last auction is on Thursday, 5 December 2024 and ends at 3:00 p.m.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument08/11/2415/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.02 EUR68.01 EUR-0.01 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.23 USD0.24 USD+0.01 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.10 USD0.21 USD+0.11 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)74.26 USD71.20 USD-3.06 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0715 USD1.0540 USD-0.0175 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (11/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States of America by a surprisingly large majority. As the 45th US President, he had already decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change during his first term in office. It can be assumed that Trump will act accordingly again after his inauguration.

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), the 29th World Climate Conference, begins today in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, and is scheduled to run until 22 November 2024. In view of the change of power in Washington, this topic will certainly be on the agenda.

Other topics at COP29 include payments to the countries of the so-called ‘global South’ that are most affected by climate change, as well as a new financing target from 2026.

It will also address Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the associated market-based climate protection instruments and emissions offsetting mechanisms to combat the climate crisis. In addition, several other measures will be negotiated, such as a climate damage tax for polluting countries, technical solutions for greenhouse gas reduction, CO2 storage technologies and negative emissions technologies.

High hopes for breakthroughs in the negotiations, particularly with the largest global emitters, are likely to be in vain in Baku.

Last week, EU emission allowances rose sharply under the bullish influence of the electricity and gas market, closing the trading week up 6.5% on the previous week.

Technically, the path towards the 70-euro mark would be clear, but a relapse to the 200-day line, which is currently at 65.01, is also quite possible. Should one of these two marks be breached, either upwards or downwards, this could signal the short-term trend.

This week, a total of 11,749,000 EUA and, on Wednesday, 899,500 emission rights for the aviation industry (EUAA), which can also be used for stationary installations, will be auctioned on the European Energy Exchange.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument01/11/2408/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)63.87 EUR68.02 EUR+4.15 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.23 USD-0.17 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.10 USD-0.34 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.33 USD74.26 USD+0.93 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0834 USD1.0715 USD-0.0119 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (05/11/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

For decades, greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union have not fallen as sharply as they did in 2023 – excluding the 2020 coronavirus year, when they fell by 9.8% – with a decline of 8.3%, as published by the EU Commission last week. EU-wide, greenhouse gas emissions were thus 37% below 1990 levels, and the target for 2030 is 50%.

Unfortunately, this is not only due to carbon emissions trading, technical innovation and the use of renewable energies, but also to the decline in production in the EU, above all in Germany, the largest economy in the EU.

Surprisingly, the economy grew in Germany by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024, but a recession is expected in the fourth quarter.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner (FDP), has therefore now written a ‘concept for growth and intergenerational justice’ in which he proposes to cut all unnecessary subsidies and reduce bureaucracy, as well as climate plans in Germany that go beyond EU targets.

The FDP is of the opinion that emissions trading should be the sole instrument, which has demonstrably shown its effectiveness and reduced emissions in all sectors in which a price has been set through the ‘cap-and-trade’ mechanism.

Since this pragmatism is completely contrary to the ideas of the coalition partners, more than a few see an end to this government in the not too distant future.

Last week, EU emission allowances fell back into the red as expected, losing 4.6% on a weekly basis.

It is extremely difficult to predict how the market will develop this week, as political factors such as the outcome of the US elections or a further escalation of the dispute in the German government could have an influence on this, in addition to developments in the energy sector.

This week, 14,582,500 EUA will be auctioned on the EEX over all five trading days, an increase of 24% over the previous week.

The last auction for EUA on the Leipzig Energy Exchange EEX this year will take place on Monday, 16 December 2024, and the first auction in the coming year will take place on Tuesday, 7 January 2025.

In Germany’s national emissions trading scheme (nEHS), the final spurt is now on, with the last auction at which national emission certificates for 2024 (nEZ24) can be purchased this year taking place in just over a month, on Thursday, 5 December 2024.

In the following year, 2025, only 10% of the allowances available on the registry account on 31 December 2024 can be purchased in the nEHS at a price of 45 euros, so no levies should be made this year as part of compliance.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument25/10/2401/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)66.97 EUR63.87 EUR-3.10  EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.51 USD0.40 USD-0.09 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.43 USD0.44 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)76.05 USD73.33 USD-2.72 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0795 USD1.0834 USD+0.0039 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team