Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (09/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the final auction for 2024 in the German national emissions trading system took place and the next auction is scheduled to take place in the second quarter of 2025, according to the German Emissions Trading Authority. Due to the deadline of September 30, 2025 for the emissions of 2024, this seems to be a negligible problem. However, companies that do not yet have all the necessary national emission certificates (nEZ) should already be devising an appropriate procurement strategy, and we would be happy to advise you on this.

In exactly one week, the last auction for EU emission rights in the EU ETS will also take place on the EEX, and it will remain interesting to see how prices will develop in view of this fact and the expiration of the December 2024 EUA futures contract on EEX and ICE, as well as the so-called “roll-over” into the next benchmark contract December 2025 by the end of the year.

In EU emissions trading, the deadline for surrendering emission rights for the year 2024 is also at the end of September 2025, with shipping companies with ships of more than 5,000 gross register tons participating in mandatory EU emissions trading for the first time this year. We are also happy to advise maritime companies in this area and, with our market-based procurement strategy, we also procure the required emission certificates.

Last week, EU emission rights fluctuated between 67.13 and 70.14 euros. After prices presented themselves bullishly in the middle of the week, the bears prevailed towards the end of the week in a rather negative environment on the energy market and closed with a moderate minus of nine cents or 0.13% compared to the previous week at 68.31.

This week, a total of 11,951,000 European Allowances (EUAs) will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX, which represents an 18% decrease from the previous week, as only 198,000 EUAs will be offered at the Polish auction on Wednesday.

It will be interesting to see what the demand will be in the remaining six auctions this year.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument29/11/2406/12/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)68.40 EUR68.31 EUR-0.09 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.40 USD0.36 USD-0.04 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.44 USD0.46 USD+0.02 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)72.81 USD71.35 USD-1.46 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0575 USD1.0568 USD-0.0007 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (02/12/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

We have now reached December 2024 and the end of this year’s auctions in German national emissions trading in accordance with the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) and European emissions trading, which in Germany is regulated by the Greenhouse Emissions Trading Act (TEHG), is approaching.

In national emissions trading, the last auctions for this year will take place tomorrow and on Thursday on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) and companies that are obliged to submit allowances would be well advised not to wait until Thursday afternoon to place their orders and transfer funds, as technical failures or delays at the banks can always occur.

It is not yet clear when the first auctions will take place in 2025, but we do not expect them to take place until May 2025; the German Emissions Trading Authority has announced the second quarter.

In European emissions trading (EU ETS), the last auction of this year will take place on Monday, December 16, 2024. The first auction of the new year will be held exactly one month later on Tuesday, January 16, 2025.

According to the EEX, a total of 680,969,000 emission allowances are to be auctioned in 2025, including 11,544,850 for aviation. However, this makes no difference, as both EUAs for the aviation industry and EUAAs for stationary installations can now be used.

This week, a total of 14,582,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days.

In the past trading week, these have ranged from 67.13 to 71.54 in the benchmark December 2024 contract. Prices remained in the upward trend channel until Thursday, which was also due to reports that the EU intends to impose minimum stocks for gas storage facilities for February 2025. On Friday, however, there was profit-taking, which caused prices for EUAs to fall by 1.26% at the end of the week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument22/11/2429/11/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)69.27 EUR68.40 EUR-0.87 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.32 USD0.40 USD+0.08 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.25 USD0.44 USD+0.19 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)74.59 USD72.81 USD-1.78 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0414 USD1.0575 USD+0.0161 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (28/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The prices in the European Emissions Trading System EU ETS show the current price for the emission of one tonne of CO2 or its equivalent (CO2e) in the sectors currently priced by the EU, but what happens to the revenues generated by the European primary market auctions on the European Energy Exchange EEX?

Among other things, the European Union is supporting 85 innovative ‘net-zero projects’ with a total of 4.8 billion euros. These projects receive funding from the so-called innovation fund and are intended to develop climate-friendly technologies and make them usable, which should contribute to the decarbonisation of Europe.

These projects are located in 18 countries and are to be implemented by 2030, saving 476 million tonnes of CO2e in the first 10 years. They are in areas such as renewable energies, energy storage and mobility.

Last week, prices in the EU ETS recovered significantly compared to the previous week. After Monday was still bearish, the price rose to the 200-day line, particularly on Wednesday, and on Thursday this resistance and the 38-day line were also easily overcome.

After the 60-euro mark proved stable at the beginning of October and prices moved well away from it, some market participants closed their short positions and this short covering supported the 7.5% price increase on a weekly closing price basis.

However, since nothing has changed fundamentally, it is relatively likely that the market will calm down again in the coming week and tend more towards the 200-day line, which is currently at 64.91. It remains to be seen how strong it will prove to be as possible support.

After the 14,582,500 EUAs auctioned on the EEX last week, only 11,749,000 EUAs will be auctioned over four trading days in the new trading week, as the Polish auction is not scheduled to take place on Wednesday.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument18/10/2425/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)62.28 EUR66.97 EUR+4.69  EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.34 USD0.51 USD+0.17 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.42 USD0.43 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)73.46 USD76.05 USD+2.59 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0866 USD1.0795 USD-0.0071 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (21/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In January of this year, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) began and importers of goods such as aluminium, iron, steel, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen or electricity, as well as their primary products, into the European Union are obliged to provide quarterly information on the related greenhouse gas emissions to the European Commission.

From January of next year, the companies concerned will be subject to additional registration requirements. Should obligated companies fail to comply with this requirement, they risk no longer being able to import goods into the EU.

It will become financially significant from January 2026, when importers will have to participate in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and purchase emission rights for their imports.

However, the North Rhine-Westphalian Ministry of Economic Affairs, headed by Minister of Economic Affairs Mona Neubaur, does not yet consider the current regulations to be sufficient and points out some design flaws. For example, the ministry considers the administrative burden on companies to be too high, which affected companies certainly see it the same way.

Furthermore, there is no compensation for European exporters who participate in the EU ETS and purchase rights for their emissions, but have to compete on the global market with companies that are not subject to any or much lower carbon pricing.

For example, an EU emission allowance for one tonne of CO2 currently costs more than 62 euros, whereas in China it costs just over 13 euros. In China, only the energy industry is required to pay the levy, but this is set to change soon.

Furthermore, German North Rhine-Westphalia is calling on the EU to extend the levy to goods containing iron, steel or aluminium, such as brake discs, grills, washing machines and cars.

Last week, prices for EU emission rights were 3.6% lower than in the previous week. A sustained break-through attempt above the 200-day moving average, which is currently at 64.95, failed on Wednesday.

One bearish factor was oil, which saw a price slump last week, coinciding with news that Israel would probably not attack Iranian oil refineries and storage facilities after all, causing Brent crude to slump by 7.5% on a weekly closing price basis.

This week, 14,582,500 EUA will be auctioned on the European Energy Exchange on all five trading days, which corresponds to an increase of 13.8 per cent compared to the previous week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument11/10/2418/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)64.62 EUR62.28 EUR-2.34 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.33 USD0.34 USD+0.01 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.43 USD0.42 USD-0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)79.38 USD73.46 USD-5.92 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0931 USD1.0866 USD-0.0065 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (07/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Austrian National Bank (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) has used a simulation model to examine the effects of carbon prices on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the European Union and has also determined what the price of emission rights would have to be to avoid further measures to achieve the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ target.

Based on the current price, further measures such as the introduction of higher energy efficiency standards would have to be implemented to achieve the EU’s self-imposed climate targets. However, to avoid further measures altogether, the price of CO2 emissions would have to rise to EUR 668.00 per tonne of CO2 or its equivalent of other greenhouse gases (CO2e) by 2030.

According to the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, such a high price would result in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area in 2030 being 2.2% lower than it would have been without a high carbon price, while consumer prices would be 6.4% higher. However, economists consider these effects to be negligible because they would be spread over a period of six years.

We are currently well away from prices above the 600-euro mark in the EU ETS; the prices for EU emission rights are currently around a tenth of that. After a weekly gain of 4.6 per cent in the previous week, EUA fell by 6.5 per cent this week, despite the significant rise in oil prices due to the escalation in the Middle East. With a low of 61.41 last Friday, a six-month low was also reached.

This week, a total of 14,582,500 EUA will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX, which corresponds to an increase of 15% compared to the previous week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument27/09/2404/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)66.33 EUR62.05 EUR-4.28 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.33 USD0.33 USD+0.00 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.37 USD0.38 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)71.99 USD78.74 USD+6.75 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.1166 USD1.0965 USD+0.0201 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team