Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (09/02/2025)

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen

The past trading week started with a significant slump in EU emission allowances. After opening at EUR 84.01, the price of EUAs for the December 2025 benchmark contract fell to EUR 80.10 in the course of the day on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, prices briefly dipped below EUR 80 on an intraday basis, but always managed to stabilise above the 80 mark by the end of the trading day.

From a purely technical perspective, EUAs are still in overbought territory, with the sharply rising 38-day line currently at 76.69 euros and the 200-day line, which has also been rising since mid-2024, currently at 70.77 euros.

It will be interesting to see whether the nervousness of some market participants will determine the price, or the EUAs can continue to hold their ground above the EUR 80 mark on a daily closing basis. 

With the exception of Wednesday, there are four auctions on the European Energy Exchange in the new trading week, with a total volume of 11,343,500 allowances, which is a decrease of 15.5% compared to the previous week.

A new auction calendar for Germany’s national emissions trading scheme is not yet available, although the Bundestag passed the TEHG reform bill in mid-January. It is not yet known when the Bundesrat will give its approval.



  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
       
Instrument31/01/2507/02/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)83.93 EUR82.28 EUR-1.65 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))45.81 GBP46.97 GBP+1.16 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)121.95 GBP129.34 GBP+7.39 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)71.48 USD71.51 USD+0.03 USD
EURO (Forex)1.0360 USD1.0328 USD-0.0032 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (03/02/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the German Bundestag passed the amendment to the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act, or TEHG for short. Now the reform only has to pass the Bundesrat, which is considered highly likely.

For the first time, shipping will now be gradually included in emissions trading. While in 2024 it was only 40% of emissions, this year it is already 70% and next year 100% of greenhouse gas emissions.

In addition, there are changes in the aviation sector, where the total emissions will be reduced more significantly by 2030, and other effects, such as condensation trails, will be included in the pricing due to their impact on the climate.

Emissions from waste incinerators, on the other hand, are to be regulated by the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) until 2027.

And with regard to the EU border adjustment mechanism, this year it remains only with the reporting requirement, only from next year onwards payments will be due in the CBAM (Carbon Borderline Adjustment Mechanism) for iron, steel, aluminium, cement, hydrogen and fertilisers, which will be based on prices in the EU ETS.

Due to the fact that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had brought up the possibility of linking the British emissions trading system with the European EU ETS, prices for British emission rights rose by a whopping 30.4% last week, and EU emission rights also recorded a further increase of 2.8% under this sign.

After an interim high of 84.50 on Thursday, the benchmark contract December 2024 fell back moderately to close the week just below the 84-euro mark.

In this trading week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on all five trading days, an increase of 2,072,500 EUAs or 18.3%.



  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
       
Instrument24/01/2531/01/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)8.67 EUR83.93 EUR+2.26 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))35.12 GBP45.81 GBP+10.69 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)116.76 GBP121.95 GBP+5.19 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)73.31 USD71.48 USD-1.83 USD
EURO (Forex)1.0272 USD1.0494 USD+0.0222 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (27/01/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by 10.3% or 77 million tonnes in 2024 compared to the previous year, marking the sharpest decline since 1990.

In addition to the expansion of renewable energies, this was due to the drop in demand for energy, which can be attributed to the crisis-ridden German economy.

Emissions from energy generation fell by 54.1 million tonnes (21.1%), and the building sector also emitted 7.6 million tonnes (6.9%) less. Even the transport sector emitted 1.7% or 2.5 million tonnes less.

The above two sectors are priced by national emissions trading under the German BEHG, and the increased use of renewable energies in buildings, as well as electric mobility, has put the brakes on the previously steady increase.

But solar energy has also eclipsed coal-fired power generation across Europe for the first time.

Last week, the rally in EU emission rights continued, with EUAs rising by a further 3.0%. They closed at 81.67 for the benchmark contract on Friday, well above the 80-euro mark.

This week, a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned at the EEX in Leipzig. Due to the regular absence of the Polish auction on Wednesday, there will only be four days of auctions.



  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
       
Instrument17/01/2524/01725Change
EUA (December-25-Future)79.26 EUR81.67 EUR+2.41 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))31.54 GBP35.12 GBP+3.58 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)117.96 GBP116.76 GBP-1.20 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)73.80 USD73.31 USD-0.49 USD
EURO (Forex)1.0272 USD1.0494 USD+0.0222 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (20/01/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

Today, Donald Trump begins his second term in the White House in Washington D.C. as President of the United States of America, and he has already announced his intention to end various climate and environmental protection laws. It remains to be seen what will actually be implemented. It will certainly be entertaining when you remember his first term in office and now he also has billionaire Elon Musk in tow and you instinctively wonder who is the boss here. Since both of them openly live out their narcissism, there are already bets on how long they will remain ‘best friends’.

Last Wednesday, the German Bundestag held a session in which the Energy Committee discussed the adaptation of the German Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (TEHG) to European guidelines (EU ETS II). The experts welcomed the adaptation, but called for more conformity with the EU.

Till Jenssen from the German Association of Cities emphasised the necessity of a sufficiently high CO2 price and targeted climate funding to relieve the burden on consumers. Michael Pahle from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research called the amendment a ‘historic step’ and highlighted Germany’s pioneering role.

The company representatives called for more planning security. Martin Kaspar from the Thüga-Aktiengesellschaft and Carsten Rolle from the Federation of German Industries emphasised the urgency of a rapid implementation of the amendment. Maximilian Rinck from the BDEW also advocated a rapid implementation of the changes.

Another point was the planned inclusion of waste incinerators in the emissions trading. Nadine Schartz from the Landkreistag (German County Association) and Holger Thärichen from the German Association of Local Utilities rejected this and called for a uniform decision throughout Europe.

Prices in the EU ETS I were noticeably bullish again last week, closing the week up 5.9% and just missing the 80-euro mark. During the course of Friday, this level was briefly exceeded with a high of 80.50, but by the end of trading, the price of the December EUA futures contract was unable to hold above the 80 mark.

This week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be offered at the European Energy Exchange EEX in the auctions, which will take place on all five trading days.



  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
       
Instrument10/01/2517/01/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)74.85 EUR79.26 EUR+4.41 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))34.88 GBP31.54 GBP-3.34 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)112.56 GBP117.96 GBP+5.60 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)74.27 USD73.80 USD-0.47 USD
EURO (Forex)1.0242 USD1.0272 USD+0.0030 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (13/01/2025)

Dear Sir or Madam,

On Wednesday, an expert hearing on the TEHG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act) will take place in the German Bundestag, which will focus on the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS II in 2027 for the building and transport sectors and the associated transition of national emissions trading to European trading.

In this context, at the end of November, the Bundesrat (Federal Council) had submitted a proposal to auction national emission certificates at a fixed price of EUR 65.00 per tonne on the EEX in 2026 as well. The current BEHG (Fuel Emissions Trading Act) stipulates that the fixed-price phase will expire next year and auctions should take place in a price range of EUR 55.00 to EUR 65.00.

Since the obligated companies would have to submit emission reports for EU ETS II by 30 April 2025 in order to implement the EU requirements, this deadline has now been suspended because the TEHG amendment has not yet been adopted. A new deadline is unknown at the moment.

Last year, the German government received a total of €18.5 billion (previous year: €18.4 billion) through CO2 emissions trading. These revenues are channelled entirely into the KTF (Climate and Transformation Fund). Auction revenues in the EU ETS amounted to EUR 5.5 billion (previous year: EUR 7.7 billion), while national emissions trading (nEHS) generated EUR 13 billion (previous year: EUR 10.7 billion).

The decline in the EU ETS is mainly due to the significantly lower average price of EUR 65.00 (2023: EUR 83.66) for emission allowances. The increase in revenue in the nEHS was due, on the one hand, to the rise in prices from EUR 30.00 to EUR 45.00 and, on the other hand, to the reduction in the number of emission rights to 85 million in 2024 (previous year: 92 million EUA).

Last week, prices in the EU ETS were 1.4% lower than in the previous week, due to profit-taking after the rise in the previous weeks and the weakening market environment in the energy sector.

After the auctions on the EEX started again last week, 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned this week, which corresponds to an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous week.

Dear readers, up to now, we have indicated the prices for wholesale quantities of voluntary emission rights (VER) in our stock market prices listed below. However, as these have proven to be of little significance in the real trading of CO2 certificates, we will now show you the general market environment. Instead, you will now find the price development of British emission rights (UKA / United Kingdom Allowances) and gas (UK natural gas) alongside the prices for Brent Crude Oil and the exchange rate for the euro to the US dollar, which have been shown for years.



  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
       
Instrument03/01/2510/01/25Change
EUA (December-25-Future)75.94 EUR74.85 EUR-1.09 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))55.00 EUR55.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))36.61 GBP34.88 GBP-1.73 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)117.34 GBP112.56 GBP-4.78 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)72.97 USD74.27 USD+1.33 USD
EURO (Forex)1.0307 USD1.0242 USD-0.0065 USD

(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team