Dear Sir or Madam,
Last week, the German Federal Cabinet approved the amendments to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) that had been on the cards for some time. Originally, the price of national emission allowances was to be aligned with the price of emission allowances in the EU ETS1 from 2027; now, however, prices are to remain within a range of €55.00 to €65.00, as has been the case this year.
Another new development is that the maximum bid volume has been reduced from 50 per cent of the respective auction volume to 20 per cent, a limit which must not be exceeded by any individual bidder. As has been the case to date, allowances with the year code 2027 may be used for previous years, but national emission certificates (nEZ) from 2026 cannot be used to meet compliance obligations in 2027.
Furthermore, in 2027, bids may only be submitted for delivery to a compliance account held by companies subject to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG); however, this is already the practice for intermediaries such as ourselves, whereby delivery is made directly by EEX/ECC to the client’s registry account.
This is intended to ensure a higher allocation per auction for compliance buyers, in contrast to this year, and to minimise the influence of speculative market participants.
This week, for the first time in the national emissions trading scheme, only the volume of 10,671,000 will be released onto the market via the EEX, as the €65 rule – which previously guaranteed a double allocation – no longer applies.
Meanwhile, in the EU ETS1, prices fell moderately by 1.8% last week, as prices for fossil fuels rose significantly amid fears of a renewed escalation in the Iran conflict. British gas rose by 10.5% and Brent crude oil by 5.5% on a week-end closing price basis.
As the Trump administration is in the midst of an election campaign and therefore wishes to conceal the failure of the war in Iran as best it can ahead of the mid-term elections on 3 November, an early end to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not to be expected.
Demand for fossil fuels tends to rise during the winter months, which means prices could rise significantly as autumn approaches, in turn negatively impacting global economic growth.
The fact that EUAs have nevertheless remained stubbornly above the 80-euro mark for the past month is currently largely due to technical factors, although trading volumes are currently rather low due to the holiday season.
This week, a total of 9,120,000 EUAs will be put up for auction on the EEX across all five trading days.
| Instrument | 07/08/26 | 14/08/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 83.29 EUR | 81.79 EUR | -1.50 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2027-Future) | 66.55 EUR | 66.55 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates) | 65.00 EUR | 65.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 60.50 GBP | 58.89 GBP | -1.61 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 141.47 GBP | 156.34 GBP | +14.87 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 79.99 USD | 84.39 USD | +4.40 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1558 USD | 1.1579 USD | +0.0021 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team