Dear Sir or Madam,
The second auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme also closed at the maximum price of 65.00 euros, meaning that, in accordance with the rules, a volume of 21,341,565 nEZ26 – approximately double the previous volume – was once again auctioned off. A total of 106 bidders took part, of whom 105 were successful.
Due to the high bid volume of 358,286,810 allowances and a cover ratio of 33.58, bidders were only awarded 5.96 per cent of their bid volume.
As things stand, it is expected that in the remaining auctions the allocation rate will tend towards 5 per cent, and in the final auctions may even fall below this, in each case at the maximum price of 65.00 euros. If only a further eight auctions were to take place, it would theoretically be possible to cover approximately half of the compliance requirement for 2026, provided one had participated in all auctions from the outset.
Another option would be to submit a bid for 20 times the required quantity, in order to cover 100 per cent of one’s requirements in an auction with a 5 per cent allocation rate. However, as the exchange requires a security deposit of 100 per cent of the bid volume, only a few market participants are likely to be able to do this from their own liquidity, even though the excess amount would be available again the following day.
Assuming that the compliance requirement in 2026 will be around 300 million allowances and that 21 million were acquired, it can be assumed that some companies will adopt this strategy and that speculative market participants will also bid, intending to sell the allowances profitably on the secondary market; this explains the total bid volume of 358 million.
Last week, the German government also published its draft bill to amend the Fuel Emissions Trading Act. According to this, the price corridor is to remain between 55 and 65 euros in 2027 and will not be based on the price of EUAs, as originally stipulated.
The price for the top-up purchase of allowances after the end of the auction phase is set to rise by 5 euros next year, from 68 euros to 73 euros. The 10 per cent top-up option can then be exercised in 2028 for nEZ27 at a price of 75 euros, which also represents an increase of 5 euros compared with this year.
After Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran to be over in one of his angry rants, there was movement in prices on the energy market and consequently also in the EU ETS1. Just as prices for gas, oil, petrol and diesel rose on the exchanges, EUA prices fell back below the 80-euro mark and closed just above the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at 79.15.
As so-called ‘early auctions’ for the EU ETS2 are due to take place on the Leipzig-based EEX as early as the beginning of next year, and the December 2028 EUA2 contract has shown no movement in recent weeks, we have promptly replaced this contract with the December 2027 contract in our price table, as we believe this will provide a better indication of price trends.
This week, a total of 9,452,500 EUAs will be put up for auction on the EEX over four days.
| Instrument | 03/07/26 | 10/07/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 80.60 EUR | 79.20 EUR | -1.10 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2027-Future) | 71.00 EUR | 66.55 EUR | -2.34 EUR |
| nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates) | 65.00 EUR | 65.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 56.33 GBP | 56.40 GBP | +0.07 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 114.55 GBP | 122.56 GBP | +7.95 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 72.38 USD | 75.50 USD | +3.12 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1437 USD | 1.1414 USD | -0.0023 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team