Dear Sir or Madam,
Last Wednesday, the first auction in the German national emissions trading scheme for allowances with the year code 2026 took place on the European Energy Exchange, with a price range of 55–65 euros.
A total of 10,671,000 nEZ26 allowances were offered for auction, with bids received for a total volume of 291.7 million allowances, representing a 27-fold oversubscription.
As most bids were submitted at a price of 65 euros, the auction closed at this price and the 65-euro rule came into effect, resulting in a total of 21,341,599 nEZ26 being allocated, which correspondingly reduced the total auction volume of 192.1 million allowances. A total of 101 bids were submitted; two bidders who had bid less than 65 euros walked away empty-handed.
In this respect – and this is how it appears following the non-representative first auction – if the subsequent auctions also conclude at a price of 65 euros, the number of remaining auctions will be halved, meaning that a further 10 auction dates could be expected.
The low number of just 101 bidders also indicates that many companies subject to trading obligations have adopted a wait-and-see approach for the time being.
Next Wednesday, a further 10,671,000 nEZ26 allowances will be offered on the EEX. It will be interesting to see whether the number of bidders increases or decreases and whether there will be a higher number of bids below 65 euros.
In the EU ETS1, prices are tending to be cautious due to a lack of fundamental data, with all eyes on 15 July, when the European Commission is due to present its reform proposals for the EU ETS1.
Consequently, EUA prices in the benchmark contract fluctuated between 78.31 and 80.75 euros last week. After a technical pennant pattern had formed last week, the price broke out upwards at the apex of this chart formation, meaning the last trading week ended with a small gain of 0.4 per cent.
This week, a total of 10,832,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig EEX across all five trading days.
| Instrument | 26/06/26 | 03/07/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 80.28 EUR | 80.60 EUR | +0.32 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2028-Future) | 71.00 EUR | 71.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| nEZ26 (national German Emission Certificates) | n/a EUR | 65.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 57.15 GBP | 56.33 GBP | -0.82 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 106.00 GBP | 114.55 GBP | +8.55 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 72.12 USD | 72.38 USD | +0.26 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1383 USD | 1.1437 USD | +0.0054 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team