Dear Sir or Madam,
It is certainly premature to assume that the Russian war against Ukraine will end soon, but market participants in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS1) are also monitoring political developments very closely.
Among other things, gas prices have fallen, as a peace agreement is expected to result in cheaper supplies, which in turn would benefit European industry.
However, it is still unclear whether import restrictions on Russian oil and gas would be lifted promptly in the event of a peace agreement.
Donald Trump naturally has a strong interest in continuing to export US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil to Europe for the time being.
However, the reconstruction of Ukraine’s destroyed cities and infrastructure would not only boost economic growth there, but also in the European Union.
The fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) estimates the cost of rebuilding Ukraine by 2035 at around €506 billion, which is more than the state can afford.
Reconstruction is a challenging task, but it also offers long-term economic opportunities for Ukraine and the European companies involved there. Modernisation in various areas opens up sustainable opportunities for such companies. Examples such as German reunification demonstrate this.
This would very likely be bullish for emission allowances and could push EUAs above the €100 mark, which is why companies subject to trading obligations should adjust their procurement strategy accordingly in good time.
We would be happy to assist you in this.
At the end of last week’s trading, EUAs moved upwards through a resistance line in the region of 82.20 within the still stable upward trend channel and achieved a gain of 3.5% on a weekly closing basis.
With the exception of Wednesday, the EEX is auctioning a total of 11,495,000 EUAs on the remaining trading days. The last auction for EUAs this year will take place on Monday, 15 December 2025.
The last auction for 2025 national emission allowances will take place this Thursday.
| Instrument | 21/11/25 | 28/11/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 80.41 EUR | 83.26 EUR | +2.85 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 69.67 EUR | 72.61 EUR | +2.94 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 57.77 GBP | 58.28 GBP | +0.51 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 78.56 GBP | 75.67 GBP | -2.89 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future) | 61.84 USD | 63.20 USD | +1.36 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1514 USD | 1.1598 USD | +0.0084 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team