Dear Sirs and Madams,
The vulnerability of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) could not have been better demonstrated than in the past two weeks.
As soon as politicians make statements that undermine the effectiveness of the well-functioning emissions trading system, the market reacts with extreme volatility.
After significant price losses had already occurred when rumours circulated that the EU ETS could be weakened in the reform proposals in the middle of this year, as there would be scope to reduce the target of greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 85% by 2040 instead of 90%, there would be more leeway, recent statements from politicians have again influenced the price.
In particular, comments made by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz last Wednesday regarding a ‘postponement of the EU ETS’ triggered another significant price slump in the last two days of last week, causing prices for EU emission allowances to plummet to almost the €70 mark.
We can only guess at what Friedrich Merz meant by his statement. Either he was referring to a further postponement of EU ETS 2 or, in the case of EU ETS 1, to a reduction in the linear reduction factor for certificate quantities from 4.3% to 4.4%; perhaps he was also referring to the extension of free certificate allocations to industry.
The pressure exerted on Brussels by parts of the chemical industry was fuelled in particular by the realisation that sufficient lobbying can achieve a great deal, as demonstrated by the automotive lobby in the case of the ban on combustion engines.
At the industry summit in Antwerp, however, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not announce the desired concessions. Instead, more funds from EU ETS revenues are to flow into the affected industries, as EU member states have invested only five per cent of the approximately €260 billion generated to date in greenhouse gas reduction in industry.
Until final decisions are made, the volatility of the EU ETS will remain high and react to corresponding statements on the reform plans.
This currently provides compliance buyers with favourable buying opportunities and speculators with opportunities for profitable trades.
In the past trading week, the price of EUAs lost a further 10.2%; since the 27-month high of €93.80 in the benchmark contract on 15 January 2026, the price has fallen by as much as 24.8% to its lowest level since the beginning of May last year.
The EUA2 futures contract also fell by 11.2%, while UK emissions allowances (UKA) fell by almost 20% in the wake of the EUAs.
This trading week, it will be interesting to see whether the EUAs can hold the €70 mark; otherwise, the next relevant technical support levels are slightly above the €60 mark. Technical resistance to the upside is particularly evident at the 200-day line, which currently stands at €79.06.
A total of 10,755,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days this week.
| Instrument | 06/02/26 | 13/02/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-26-Future) | 78.73 EUR | 70.68 EUR | -8.05 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 74.09 EUR | 65.82 EUR | -8.27 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-26-Future (UK)) | 56.69 GBP | 45.50 GBP | -11.19 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future) | 80.29 GBP | 78.35 GBP | -1.94 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future) | 65.26 USD | 64.69 USD | -0.57 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1816 USD | 1.1869 USD | +0.0053 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team