Ladies and gentlemen,
Last Tuesday, a group of Eastern European EU member states called for the entry into force of the EU ETS 2 for the buildings and transport sector to be postponed, as they fear social and economic consequences.
The politicians led by Czech Environment Minister Petr Hladik (EPP) expect petrol and diesel prices to rise by several dozen cents when it comes into force at the beginning of 2027.
The Alliance argues that a postponement by one year to 2028 would lead to greater acceptance and could also reduce market volatility, which would mean a reduction in the social impact. Some countries are even calling for a three-year postponement.
The market stability reserve, which would be used if prices were too volatile, should also be worth discussing.
In addition to the Czech Republic, Italy, Slovakia and Latvia are said to be open to such plans and France has also declared partial flexibility in this regard.
However, the EU Commission clearly spoke out against changes.
Last week, the previous benchmark contract for EUA December 2024 futures expired and the December 2025 contract has now taken over its function.
After prices trended significantly southwards on the first two trading days of last week, this trend came to a halt on Wednesday and, under the support of bullish gas prices, EUAs rose significantly on the last two trading days, closing the week with a price gain of 2.6%.
Interestingly, the support line at just under EUR 65 held and the 200-day line is now the next resistance level, currently at EUR 69.01.
As there will be no auctions in the EU ETS on the Leipzig EEX until January 16, 2025, pricing will now be determined entirely by fundamental news, the market environment and chart technology.
In addition, it has often been the case in recent years that institutional investors are still buying, which would give prices a bullish impetus.
| (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC) | |||
| Instrument | 13/12/24 | 20/12/24 | Change |
| EUA (December-2025-Future) | 66.47 EUR | 68.20 EUR | +1.73 EUR |
| VER (Natural Carbon Offsets) | 0.40 USD | 0.56 USD | +0.16 USD |
| VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets) | 0.44 USD | 0.45 USD | +0.01 USD |
| nEZ (German National Carbon Units) | 45.00 EUR | 45.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) | 74.56 USD | 73.11 USD | +1.45 USD |
| EURO (Currency.. Forex) | 1.0497 USD | 1.0429 USD | -0.0068 USD |
(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team