Dear Sir or Madam,
There are currently many important issues in the field of climate protection and CO2 emissions trading.
30th World Climate Conference in Brazil
Today, the 30th World Climate Conference begins in Belém, Brazil, on the edge of the Amazon region. This takes place exactly 10 years after the Paris Climate Change Conference, at which global warming was to be limited to 1.5°C through ambitious greenhouse gas reduction.
Ten years later, it is clear that the international community has already clearly missed this target and that the small blue planet is heading for a warming of 2.8°C by the end of the century, as the United Nations Environment Programme announced in the run-up to COP30.
In recent years, important decisions on climate finance have been taken at COP28 in Dubai and the 2024 Climate Conference in Baku. By 2035, developing countries are to receive 1.3 trillion US dollars annually from public and private sources, with at least 300 billion dollars earmarked as binding aid for particularly affected countries.
COP30 will once again focus on national climate targets, but not all countries have submitted their contributions for 2035. Another key issue is international climate finance. Many less wealthy countries criticise insufficient and non-binding aid commitments; the costs of adapting to climate change are also being negotiated.
Disputes are also expected over the phase-out of fossil fuels.
Brazil has prepared an ‘Action Agenda’ with six thematic blocks and 30 goals, including forest protection, energy transition and sustainable agriculture. The protection of rainforests plays a central role in this. Brazil plans to initiate a $125 billion fund for global tropical forest protection, financed by public and private funds. Many countries have already made concrete commitments worth billions, but Germany remains vague.
Postponement of EU ETS2 to 2028
In the run-up to COP30, the European Union agreed to postpone the start of the EU Emissions Trading System for the transport and buildings sectors from 2027 to 2028 and to intervene in the market if prices rise significantly above the initial maximum level of €45.
National Emissions Trading System in Germany
The postponement of EU ETS2 has a direct impact on national emissions trading in 2027, as the legal basis for how the auctions for national emissions allowances are to be priced in this case has already been established.
After a range of €55 to €65 is to apply in the auctions next year, the volume-weighted average price of the penultimate quarter will be used as the price for the auctions of CO2 allowances in 2027.
For many companies subject to trading obligations, this poses a major challenge in terms of optimising their procurement strategy and hedging against significantly rising prices.
We are happy to support you with advice and assistance based on our many years of experience in European emissions trading (EU ETS).
Last week, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) also published the new auction calendar for 2026. The first auction day is 13 January 2026, when allowances with a validity year of 2025 can be purchased at a price of €55 under the 10% post-purchase rule. The last opportunity for post-purchases on the EEX is 17 September 2026.
Between July and October, regular auctions for 2026 nEZ are then scheduled to take place in the price range of €55 to €65.
EU Emissions Trading System EU ETS1
At the beginning of last week’s trading, EUAs broke through an important resistance line on their way to the €80 mark and also easily surpassed it last Tuesday. Over the course of the week, the bullish sentiment failed to gain further ground and EUAs ended the week below the €80 mark, but above the resistance line broken on Monday.
If the bears prevail this week, the next support level is just below €78. However, if the bulls push prices back above the 80 mark, the next relevant technical resistance would only be in the range above 83 euros.
This week, a total of 13,657,500 EUAs will be offered for auction on the EEX on all five trading days.
| Instrument | 31/10/25 | 07/11/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 78.54 EUR | 79.47 EUR | +0.93 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 68.41 EUR | 68.49 EUR | +0.08 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 56.27 GBP | 55.35 GBP | -0.92 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 80.87 GBP | 81.15 GBP | +0.28 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future) | 63.72 USD | 64.77 USD | +1.05 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1537 USD | 1.1565 USD | +0.0028 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team