Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (07/10/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Austrian National Bank (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) has used a simulation model to examine the effects of carbon prices on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the European Union and has also determined what the price of emission rights would have to be to avoid further measures to achieve the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ target.

Based on the current price, further measures such as the introduction of higher energy efficiency standards would have to be implemented to achieve the EU’s self-imposed climate targets. However, to avoid further measures altogether, the price of CO2 emissions would have to rise to EUR 668.00 per tonne of CO2 or its equivalent of other greenhouse gases (CO2e) by 2030.

According to the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, such a high price would result in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area in 2030 being 2.2% lower than it would have been without a high carbon price, while consumer prices would be 6.4% higher. However, economists consider these effects to be negligible because they would be spread over a period of six years.

We are currently well away from prices above the 600-euro mark in the EU ETS; the prices for EU emission rights are currently around a tenth of that. After a weekly gain of 4.6 per cent in the previous week, EUA fell by 6.5 per cent this week, despite the significant rise in oil prices due to the escalation in the Middle East. With a low of 61.41 last Friday, a six-month low was also reached.

This week, a total of 14,582,500 EUA will be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX, which corresponds to an increase of 15% compared to the previous week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument27/09/2404/10/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)66.33 EUR62.05 EUR-4.28 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.33 USD0.33 USD+0.00 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.37 USD0.38 USD+0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)71.99 USD78.74 USD+6.75 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.1166 USD1.0965 USD+0.0201 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com), which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting. EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team