Dear Sir or Madam,
The US government’s tariffs on almost all countries around the globe and the counter-tariffs announced by China last Friday have turned the financial markets deep red in the past week.
The Japanese Nikkei Index lost 7.30% last week, the DAX 7.24% and the Dow Jones 7.41%, with Friday alone accounting for 5.50%. The US technology index NASDAQ Composite was particularly hard hit, falling 8.55%, last Friday’s announcement of the Chinese counter-tariffs led to a loss of 5.82%.
In view of the current market situation, it is difficult to make a clear forecast for the coming weeks. Future market developments will depend heavily on geopolitical events and the decisions of central banks.
Even the US government’s special adviser, Tesla boss Elon Musk, spoke out in favour of abolishing all tariffs between the US and Europe, thus taking a clear stand against Donald Trump’s policies.
Since the last-named is extremely erratic and protests against his policies are visibly increasing in the US, it cannot be ruled out that he will make another U-turn in the not too distant future, which would lead to a corresponding counter-reaction by the financial markets.
And the commodity markets have also weakened considerably due to concerns about the global economy. Last week, Brent crude lost 8.69%, UK gas lost 6.67% and EU ETS I emission allowances fell by 7.24% on a weekly basis.
Depending on how the situation surrounding US tariffs and possible EU countermeasures develops, the extremely nervous financial markets and, consequently, the commodity and energy markets will move in the coming weeks.
For EUAs, this means that prices will also be restrained and that it looks like a good opportunity for companies subject to the levy to procure at least part of the required quantities of certificates. Because should the chaos created by Trump subside, with him sending signals of détente and celebrating a ‘deal’ for himself, corresponding counterreactions will not be long in coming on the markets.
This week, 3,245,500 EUAs from the EU will be auctioned off on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and 1,607,000 from Germany’s quota will be auctioned off on Friday.
| Instrument | 28/03/25 | 04/04/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 68.80 EUR | 63.82 EUR | -4.98 EUR |
| nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0,00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 44.59 GBP | 43.28 GBP | -1.31 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 104.98 GBP | 97.98 GBP | -7.00 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future) | 69.62 USD | 63.57 USD | -6.05 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.0829 USD | 1.0964 USD | +0.0135 USD |
(EUA. UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team