Dear Sir or Madam,
The price of crude oil is surprisingly low given that global oil reserves are dwindling at a record pace.
It is not only the transport problems in the Strait of Hormuz that are putting pressure on the global oil supply; production also fell between March and April. This is the conclusion reached by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) May oil market report, which was published last Wednesday. Supply flows of crude oil, natural gas and fuels from the Persian Gulf remain largely disrupted; according to the report, governments and companies are responding with rationing, austerity measures and price controls.
The IEA estimates that the situation will drag on for months. The release of emergency reserves in Germany, the US and Japan caused recorded oil stocks to fall by around four million barrels a day in March and April. The oil market will remain “massively undersupplied” until October, even if the Iran conflict ends soon.
On the spot market, Brent crude oil closed at US$109.35 last week, and the December contract also climbed back above the US$90 mark.
The European Energy Exchange (EEX) published the revised EUA auction calendar for 2026 last Tuesday. It applies from June to December and takes into account the amended European Climate Law. From June 2026, 50 million EUAs will be auctioned for the Social Climate Fund. Of these, 10 million had previously been allocated to participating Member States. These 10 million allowances were deducted from those allocations and also allocated to the fund.
The Social Climate Fund is an EU fund designed to cushion the impact of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS2) in the buildings and transport sectors for particularly affected citizens and micro-enterprises. It provides Member States with funds for temporary income support, investments in energy efficiency and building decarbonisation, as well as for improved access to low-emission mobility.
As a result, the EU auctions, which usually take place three times a week, will increase from 2,712,500 to 3,198,500 between June and August, and to 3,699,000 EUAs from September onwards. The weekly German auction will be reduced from 1,093,000 to 1,000,000 allowances over the next three months, before rising to 2,596,000 EUAs per week from September. The fortnightly auction for Poland will be reduced from 1,524,500 to 1,380,000 EUAs over the following three-month period, with the volume rising to 2,794,000 emission allowances from September.
In addition, the German government plans to continue pricing in the national emissions trading system (nEHS) in 2027 as it has done this year.
Currently, the rule is that the price of national emission allowances is based on the average price of EU ETS1 emission allowances.
This requires an amendment to the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) and the Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance (BEHV) by the German Bundestag and Bundesrat.
Last week, during which only three auctions took place on the EEX due to public holidays, EUAs traded within a range of €73.69 to €77.45.
Due to the scheduled absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, a total of 9,230,500 EUAs from the EU and Germany will be auctioned on the other four trading days this week.
| Instrument | 08/05/26 | 15/05/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 75.18 EUR | 75.60 EUR | +0.42 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2028-Future) | 67.00 EUR | 66.75 EUR | -0.25 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 50.05 GBP | 51.13 GBP | +1.08 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 112.80 GBP | 124.79 GBP | +11.99 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 87.28 USD | 90.98 USD | +3.70 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1787 USD | 1.1626 USD | -0.0161 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team