Dear Sir or Madam,
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s open criticism of the US government regarding the lack of a clear exit strategy in the Iran conflict may be understandable, but it has led to the predictable response from Donald Trump, who, in addition to withdrawing US Army troops from Germany, intends to impose 25% import tariffs on the already struggling European car industry.
Trump’s reasoning may be inconsistent, but the issue has the potential to lead to further escalation between the US and Europe, which in turn will affect European economic growth. The impact on the financial markets will be felt accordingly, even though they have now become more resilient to Donald Trump’s announcements in terms of market psychology.
Last Tuesday, the European Energy Exchange published the updated auction calendar for national emissions trading in Germany. Among the key changes is that auctions will now take place on Wednesdays between 13:00 and 15:00, starting on 1 July 2026.
In addition, the weekly auction volume has been adjusted to 10,671,000 nEZ; the final auction within the €55–€65 range will take place on 28 October 2026 with 10,678,240 nEZ. The total volume within the range auctions, which had previously been 195,000,000 nEZ, has now been reduced to 192,085,240 nEZ.
The total demand for 2025 amounted to 294,000,000 nEZ. Based on this, there is an additional demand of 103 million nEZ, which can be met without limit at a price of €68 between 3 November 2026 and 3 December 2026, on Tuesdays.
Given the assumption that investors with speculative interests will also secure allowances at a price of up to €65 during the auction phase, in order to then offer them profitably on the secondary market below €68 during the fixed-price phase, there is a high probability that only a small proportion of the demand for 2026 can be met within the range of €55 – €65. Companies subject to trading obligations should take this into account when calculating their product prices. We would be happy to advise you on this matter.
Also last week, the European Parliament presented plans regarding the EU ETS2, which is set to come into force from 2028 and will replace the national emissions trading scheme in Germany. In particular, the initially targeted price of €45 per EUA2 was reaffirmed, which is to be achieved through rapid intervention by the market stability reserve should speculative behaviour drive prices up too sharply. At the same time, the cap-and-trade mechanism is to be retained.
So far, however, this has not had a significant impact on prices in the EU ETS2 futures market (December 2028 future).
Prices for EUAs fluctuated within a moderate range of €72.43 to €76.04 last week, showing a decline of 1.3% on a closing price basis.
On the EEX, a total of 9,230,500 EUAs will be auctioned over the remaining four days this week due to the absence of the Polish Wednesday auction, representing a 4.5% decrease compared to the previous week.
| Instrument | 24/04/26 | 01/05/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-2026-Future) | 74,90 EUR | 73,94 EUR | -0,96 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-2028-Future) | 67,23 EUR | 67,41 EUR | +0,18 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national German Emission Certificates) | 55,00 EUR | 55,00 EUR | +0,00 EUR |
| UKA (December-2026-Future (UK)) | 50,47 GBP | 49,88 GBP | -0,59 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-2026-Future) | 115,79 GBP | 117,87 GBP | +2,08 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-2026-Future) | 84,81 USD | 87,40 USD | +2,59 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1,1721 USD | 1,1721 USD | +0,0000 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team