Dear Sir or Madam,
The Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX) and the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) of the Federal Environment Agency have published the provisional sales calendar for the auctioning of national emission allowances (nEZ) in accordance with the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) in 2026.
For the first time this year, nEHS allowances will be auctioned on the EEX at a price range between EUR 55.00 and EUR 65.00. The auctions will take place once a week on Mondays from 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. The first auction is scheduled for 6 July 2026, and the last auction date of the year is expected to be 2 November 2026.
The total quantity planned for auction is based on a preliminary estimate of 195 million nEZ. The DEHSt will announce the final auction volume by 30 April 2026 at the latest, after which the EEX will adjust the calendar accordingly. This means that 10,833,000 nEZ26 will be auctioned weekly, with 6,000 more in the last auction in December.
Since a total of 294 million nEZ were auctioned in 2025 as part of the final year of the fixed price phase, this will result in a calculated shortfall of just under 100 million allowances in the auctions, which can then be purchased in unlimited volumes at a price of EUR 68.00, also on a weekly basis between 3 November and 3 December 2026. Ultimately, this means that approximately one-third of the certificates must be purchased at a price of EUR 68.00 to fulfil the surrender obligation if demand is the same as in the previous year.
As it is highly likely that investors who are not subject to the obligation to surrender allowances will also try to stock up cheaply at the auctions and sell the certificates at a profit on the secondary market, compliance buyers would be well advised to adjust their pricing calculations accordingly.
In the EU ETS, a total of 9,230,500 emission allowances will be auctioned on the EEX over four days this week, with prices continuing to come under pressure in the past trading week.
The reason for this is the EU’s possible plans to ease the burden on energy-intensive European industry. According to Handelsblatt, which cites EU officials, this industry is to receive free CO2 certificates for longer than originally planned. The EU Commission apparently plans to relax emissions trading (ETS) and continue the free allocation of emission allowances beyond 2034.
The auctioning of allowances in the ETS could also be postponed until after 2039. Under current legislation, companies would no longer be eligible for free allowances from that point onwards and would have to produce in a climate-neutral manner. The Commission intends to present its proposal on this in July.
Last autumn, EU Member States decided to reduce CO2 emissions by 80 to 85 per cent by 2040, instead of 90 per cent as previously proposed by the Commission. This gives the EU more flexibility to weaken the ETS. However, the goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050 remains unchanged.
As the EUAs have now left the bullish trend channel for good and a bearish channel has emerged, it remains to be seen how long this negative sentiment will last.
The trading range of the benchmark contract last week was between EUR 84.84 and EUR 76.20, with Friday’s closing price down 3.1% for the week.
As the new trend channel is relatively wide, EUAs could break through the EUR 80 mark again, which could be nothing more than a confirmation of the current trend. However, it cannot be ruled out that the market will now focus on the EUR 75 mark.
| Instrument | 30/01/26 | 06/02/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-26-Future) | 81.26 EUR | 78.73 EUR | -2.53 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 75.12 EUR | 74.09 EUR | -1.03 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-26-Future (UK)) | 61.89 GBP | 56.69 GBP | -5.20 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future) | 81.48 GBP | 80.29 GBP | -1.19 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future) | 66.02 USD | 65.26 USD | -0.76 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1851 USD | 1.1816 USD | -0.0035 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
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With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team