Dear Sir or Madam,
Last Thursday, the Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig ruled that the German government must significantly improve its climate protection programme. The ruling was prompted by a lawsuit filed by Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH), which has thus succeeded in enforcing concrete improvements to the climate protection programme. The background to this is that, according to government figures, the current programme is not sufficient to meet the climate target of a 65 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 compared to 1990 levels – the target is expected to be missed by 25 million tonnes of CO₂.
With its ruling, the German Federal Administrative Court confirms a decision by the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court from May 2024. It emphasises that the climate protection programme must contain binding measures to achieve the targets, which now puts the federal government under pressure to act.
Regardless of this, the federal government is legally obliged to present a new climate protection programme by 25 March 2026 at the latest. Whether the federal government will meet this deadline and adopt sufficient measures for the climate targets for 2030, 2040 and the intervening years is currently just as unclear as any measures that may be taken.
Last Thursday, it was also announced that the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) at the Federal Environment Agency had extended the European Energy Exchange (EEX)’s mandate as the auction platform for German emission allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 1) by two years. The existing contract runs until January 2027; with the extension, the EEX will continue to conduct weekly auctions on behalf of Germany until the end of 2028.
In addition to the auctions on behalf of the Federal Republic of Germany and the nEHS sales, EEX organises regular auctions of emission allowances on behalf of the European Commission and 25 other EU member states, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Northern Ireland.
Prices in the EU ETS 1 fell significantly by 8.8% last week, leaving the sideways-upward trend channel that had been valid for months. After opening at €88.30 in the benchmark contract on Monday, EUAs attempted a countermovement on Tuesday, but had to leave the trend channel on Thursday and closed at €81.26 on Friday.
The psychologically important market level of €80.00, which was last breached at the end of October last year, and the 200-day line, currently at €78.55, are the next support levels for EUAs.
If buyers increasingly fill their portfolios with EUAs in this market situation, it could lead to a corresponding bullish counter-movement on the market this week after the losses of the previous two weeks.
| Instrument | 23/01/26 | 30/01/26 | Change |
| EUA (December-26-Future) | 88.40 EUR | 81.26 EUR | -7.14 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 76.71 EUR | 75.12 EUR | -1.59 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-26-Future (UK)) | 68.32 GBP | 61.89 GBP | -6.43 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future) | 77.32 GBP | 81.48 GBP | +4.16 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future) | 63.35 USD | 66.02 USD | +2.67 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1829 USD | 1.1851 USD | +0.0022 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team