Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Wednesday, a hearing of the federal states and associations was held on the draft of a second amendment to the Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance (BEHV) regarding Germany’s national emissions trading scheme.

The aim of the amendment is to establish regulations on national CO₂ pricing from 2026 onwards and on the auctioning and sale of emission allowances.

In addition, adjustments have been made to the emissions trading registry to facilitate implementation. The draft bill is still in the consultation process, and comments could be submitted until 7 July 2025.

As an upper limit on the number of emission allowances to be auctioned will apply for the first time next year, companies that come away empty-handed at the auctions will be able to buy additional allowances at a price of 68 euros; previously, the price was to be 70 euros. The price range in the auctions for 2026 is 55 to 65 euros per national emission allowance (nEZ).

In addition, as before, 10% of the allowances are to be purchased in the following year 2027 at a price of 70 euros, and not, as previously planned, 4% of the volume documented in the registry account on 31 December 2026.

In the not unlikely event that there are delays in the introduction of EU ETS2, Germanys national emissions trading will continue and the market price for the nEZ auctions will be based on the volume-weighted average price of the EUA (EU ETS) for the penultimate quarter.

Last but not least, the rules governing admission to the auctions have also been revised. According to the current and probably final version, the designated marketplace will be required to admit eligible parties to participate in the sale process under conditions that are objective and non-discriminatory. Furthermore, the admission requirements may not impose higher requirements than those for participation in trading in products sold on the regulated market of the appointed entity.

This leads to the conclusion that the relevant exchange will also have higher admission requirements for existing compliance participants and intermediaries.

EU emission allowances had a negative start to the week last week, setting a weekly low of 70.85 euros for the December 2025 benchmark contract. Last Friday, however, EUAs rose significantly and broke through the 38-day line. At the same time, they reached a six-week high of €73.35 and ended the trading week with a gain of 3.1%.

This week, the Polish auction will again be not held on Wednesday as scheduled, and a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig Energy Exchange (EEX) on the remaining four days.

Instrument	01/08/25	08/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.04 EUR	73.21 EUR	+2.17 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	86.72 EUR	88.97 EUR	+2.25 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	49.94 GBP	51.86 GBP	+1.92 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	95.05 GBP	90.52 GBP	-4.53 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	68.04 USD	65.49 USD	-2.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1586 USD	1.1642 USD	+0.0056 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Visitors to the European Energy Exchange (EEX) on Augustusplatz enjoy a wonderful view of Leipzig and beyond.

Since its foundation 25 years ago, EEX has developed into one of the leading global exchanges for energy and market-based climate protection instruments in the spot and futures markets and is now stakeholder in many other exchanges and trading venues worldwide.

Twenty years ago, EEX began offering EU emission allowances (EUA, European Allowances) on the spot market, and it has been conducting primary market auctions for 15 years.

A week ago today, EEX published the auction calendar for EU ETS 1 for 2026 and the auction calendar for this year, which has been adjusted to take into account the intervention of the market stability reserve.

The original plan was for the EU to auction 4,547,500 EUAs three times a week starting in September this year, with Germany auctioning 3,129,500 EUAs on Fridays and Poland auctioning 3,291,500 EUAs every second Wednesday.

Due to the market stability reserve (MSR), 3,268,000 EUAs (-28.1%) will now be auctioned for the European Union starting in September, 1,691,000 (-46.0%) at the Friday auction for Germany and 2,162,500 EUAs (-34.3%) at the biweekly Polish auction.

The last auction for EUAs this year will take place on 15 December 2025, when 3,273,000 emission allowances from the EU quota will be offered. In 2026, the first auction will take place on 7 January.

The regular auction volume for the EU in the coming year is 2,935,000 EUAs (-10.2%), the biweekly Polish volume will be 1,801,500 EUAs (-16.7%) and the German auction volume will be reduced to 1,353,000 EUAs (-20.0%).

A total of 583,335,000 emission allowances are to be auctioned next year, which corresponds to a decrease of 5,400,000 units or 0.93% compared to this year.

A total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be auctioned in the current trading week.

EUA prices were initially very bullish last week, reaching a July high of 73.35 euros in the benchmark futures contract for December 2025 on Wednesday.

On Friday, however, most of the price gains were reversed and EUAs ended the week with a small loss of 30 cents or 0.4%.

Instrument	25/07/25	01/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.34 EUR	71.04 EUR	-0.30 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	83.01 EUR	88.97 EUR	+3.71 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	50.10 GBP	49,94 GBP	-0,16 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	93.38 GBP	95,05 GBP	+1,67 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	66.65 USD	68.04 USD	+1,39 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1742 USD	1.1586 USD	-0,0156 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Companies subject to compliance in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme under the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) must fulfil their reporting obligations by Thursday at the latest. In addition, data relating to reporting obligations under the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Act (TEHG) for the EU ETS 2 must also be determined.

Not only did the form management system specified by the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt) not function properly last week, but the entire DEHSt website was partially unavailable on Friday.

The penalties for late or non-submission of reports are significant, and there is no guarantee that the DEHSt will grant exemptions due to its own IT problems.

As it cannot be guaranteed that this will also happen when the national emission allowances are submitted, it is advisable to procure any volumes still required in the coming weeks and submit them in order to prevent any problems. The deadline for submission is September 30, 2025.

The Federal Environment Agency is currently tendering for the electronic platform on which the auctions in the national emissions trading system are to be conducted next year. These are scheduled to begin on July 1, 2026, at the latest. So far, EEX has prevailed here due to its expertise and references, and it would be surprising if another digital platform were to be used, although this cannot be ruled out. It is also not yet clear what the approval process for authorized intermediaries or participants will be.

In EU ETS 1, prices broke out of their bearish downtrend last Thursday, at least in the short term, and broke through both the €70 mark and the 200-day line, which currently stands at €70.27. On a weekly closing basis, the benchmark contract closed up 2.1% at 71.34 euros.

Yesterday, EU President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump met in Turnberry, Scotland, after the latter showed up at his golf course there.

Von der Leyen had just returned from China, where she explored alternatives to the US as a trading partner, which was not least a message to Trump regarding his tariff policy.

Since Trump wanted to claim the glory for himself, he did not give the negotiators sufficient authority to reach an agreement on tariffs. This also allowed him to play on his own golf courses at US taxpayers’ expense, once again demonstrating where his handicap lies.

Then, yesterday evening, it was announced that exports from the EU to the US will now be subject to 15% tariffs from August, instead of the 30% previously announced by Washington.

In addition, an export ban was agreed for various goods such as steel scrap.

This will certainly calm the financial, commodity, and energy markets in the coming days, even if it was certainly expected by some market participants.

Instrument	18/07/25	25/07/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	69.89 EUR	71.34 EUR	+1.45 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	78.39 EUR	83.01 EUR	+4.62 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	49.21 GBP	50.10 GBP	+0.89 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	94.50 GBP	93.38 GBP	-1.12 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	67.33 USD	66.65 USD	-0.68 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1626 USD	1.1742 USD	+0.0116 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

There are growing signs that China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, may have reached its peak CO₂ emissions, according to analyst Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The reasons for this are the massive expansion of renewable energies and nuclear power, and the increasing electrification of the economy and transport.

This is certainly a good sign, but it is also urgently needed, as global emissions rose by 1% last year to a record high of more than 41 gigatonnes of CO₂.

Another positive development is the announcement by the German Federal Environment Agency that emissions from installations covered by EU ETS 1 have fallen by more than half since the EU Emissions Trading System was introduced in 2005.

The EU ETS 1 is now to be linked to the UK emissions trading system following a draft decision by the European Commission. How quickly such a link can be established and how exactly it will be implemented technically is still unknown.

The EU Emissions Trading System has already been linked to Switzerland’s emissions trading system since 2020, and emission allowances can be transferred between the two systems.

Prices in the EU ETS 1 continued to decline in the past trading week and ended the week below the 70 euro mark. The EUA December future also ended last week below the 200-day line and broke through an important support line to the downside.

If the market continues to be driven by technical factors, the price is likely to remain bearish in the current trading week, which could present interesting buying opportunities for compliance buyers and speculators.

A total of 13,416,000 EUAs will be auctioned on all five trading days at the EEX in Leipzig, representing an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

Instrument	11/07/25	18/07/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.55 EUR	69.89 EUR	-0.66 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	79.10 EUR	78.39 EUR	-0.71 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	47.51 GBP	49.21 GBP	+1.70 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	98.92 GBP	94.50 GBP	-4.42 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	67.72 USD	67.33 USD	-0.39 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1691 USD	1.1626 USD	-0.0065 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

A week ago today, the first EUA2 futures for the EU ETS2 were traded on the EEX.

Unlike ICE, which only launched the contract with a maturity date of December 2028, EEX opted for 20 futures, with only six futures prices quoted, each in the April and December contracts.

As on ICE, one lot comprises 1,000 EUA2, and the first trading week ended with the following prices:

EUA2 December 2027:            EUR 77.89

EUA2 April 2028:                      EUR 78.73

EUA2 December 2028:            EUR 80.42

EUA2 April 2029:                      EUR 81.34

EUA2 December 2029:            EUR 83.17

EUA2 April 2030:                      EUR 84.19

All in all, the prices are relatively close to the EUA1 futures with the same maturities, which is due to the current lack of liquidity caused by political uncertainties and the exchange’s pricing.

Of course, these prices are nothing more than an initial indication, and it will be interesting to see how prices develop over the next 18 months until the planned launch of EU ETS2.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the December 2027 EUA2 futures if EU ETS2 is postponed by one year to 2028. In this case, a swap to the next available contract will probably be made.

After continued uncertainty regarding US tariff policy last week, we are still none the wiser, even though Donald Trump’s letter to the EU has now been published.

In it, he is currently demanding 30% tariffs on goods imported from the European Union from 1 August. This is not seen as merely a new means of exerting pressure, as the negotiations between the EU and the US are not going Trump’s way. However, it can be assumed that the remaining days will continue to be used for negotiations.

Otherwise, the EU will adopt countermeasures that will harm export-oriented companies in the US. However, these will certainly be somewhat lower in order not to motivate Trump, who is predictable in his unpredictability, to further increases and to prevent an escalation spiral.

Last week, the wait for Trump’s tariff letter weighed moderately on the EUAs, which fell moderately by 1.6% compared to the previous week.

Market participants in the financial and commodity markets will closely monitor further developments in the coming weeks of July. Depending on how the tariff dispute develops, this will have an impact on price developments in the markets.

This week, a total of 11,343,500 will be auctioned on four trading days, with the exception of Wednesday, when the Polish auction is not scheduled to take place.

Instrument	04/07/25	04/07/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	71.67 EUR	70.55 EUR	-1.12 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	80.22 EUR	79.10 EUR	-1.12 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	47.71 GBP	47.51 GBP	-0.20 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	95.26 GBP	98.92 GBP	+3.66 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.95 USD	67.72 USD	+1.77 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1778 USD	1.1691 USD	-0.0087 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

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