Dear Sir or Madam,

The European Union (EU) has adopted stricter measures for market intervention in the emissions trading scheme for transport and buildings (EU ETS2), which is due to begin in 2028. If the price for emitting one tonne of carbon dioxide rises above 45 euros, 40 million additional allowances are to be released from the market stability reserve in future, doubling the previous total.

This can happen twice a year, meaning the total amount could reach up to 80 million EUA2. Smaller quantities can now already be released if the number of emission allowances in free circulation falls below the 260 million mark. The previously planned rule was for up to 100 million EUA2 if the volume in circulation fell below the 210 million allowance mark.

The Member States and the European Parliament still have to approve this rule; the December 2028 future reacted with a gain of 4.4% or three euros, rising back above the 70-euro mark.

Last Friday, the EU’s economic and finance ministers also reached a common position on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The mechanism, which has been in force since January and covers in particular raw and basic materials such as aluminium, steel and cement, is now to be extended to machinery consisting predominantly of aluminium or steel. This is intended to protect European industry from the burdens of the EU ETS compared to countries that levy no or significantly lower prices on greenhouse gas emissions. The Council of Europe and the European Parliament are now set to introduce the relevant regulations.

From 1 July 2026, weekly auctions for allowances with the 2026 year code will take place every Wednesday in the German national emissions trading scheme. In order to participate in these auctions, an extension of membership for the regulated market on the EEX is required, in addition to the existing membership. In addition, the technical transition will take place, which is why we will not be able to participate in the fixed-price auctions for 2025 allowances on behalf of our clients on 16 and 23 June 2026. The next auction participation will therefore be on 30 June 2026.

On a weekly closing price basis, EU emission allowances went into the weekend virtually unchanged. Developments in the Iran conflict regarding the Strait of Hormuz are also expected to remain a key price driver this trading week.

In the EU ETS1, a total of 10,595,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over four trading days this week.

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

During his election campaign, US President Donald Trump repeatedly used one of his favourite catchphrases, “drill, baby, drill”, with which he sought to make fossil fuels socially acceptable once again.

However, with his war of aggression against Iran, Trump has achieved exactly the opposite. According to forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), electric vehicles will account for almost 30% of global car sales by 2026. The shift towards electric mobility – and thus the decarbonisation of transport – is therefore accelerating further. Driven by high oil prices and falling battery costs, the IEA expects 23 million electric vehicles to be sold worldwide this year. In addition to China, demand is now also growing significantly in Europe, Latin America and South-East Asia.

Global trade in renewable energy technologies has also recovered significantly, despite geopolitical tensions and tariffs, reaching 479 billion dollars. Growing concerns about energy security have prompted many countries to strengthen their resilience and increase demand for solar energy and battery storage. As trade routes shift to circumvent new tariffs, clean technology is increasingly becoming a central element of government trade policy.

On 15 July, the European Commission plans to present reform proposals for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). A key component of the reforms is to be the continued free allocation of allowances across various sectors. However, this is to be conditional on companies demonstrating that they are investing in the decarbonisation of their sites within the EU.

Due to potential positive developments regarding the Iran conflict and the alleged agreement on a ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ between the warring parties, the price of EUAs rose above the €80 mark on Thursday last week and closed the week up 4.8%.

US President Trump’s erratic behaviour could, of course, significantly dampen this optimism should he undo the progress made on a whim.

This week, with the exception of Wednesday, a total of 10,595,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX over the other four days, representing an increase of 31.7% compared to the previous week. The reason for the sharp rise is the increased auction volume from the EU’s allowances, up from 2,712,500 to 3,198,500 EUAs across three weekdays.

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last Thursday, the UN General Assembly adopted a historic resolution that legally obliges all member states to take stronger action on climate change. It is based on a landmark advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2025. According to this opinion, failure to meet climate protection targets is unlawful, and affected states may claim compensation.

The initiative stems from a campaign by law students from small island states such as Vanuatu, which are particularly threatened by rising sea levels. They had also prompted the ICJ’s advisory opinion of July 2025.

141 countries voted in favour of the resolution. 28 states abstained, including India and several major oil-producing nations. Eight states rejected it, including the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran. Even states that, like the US under Donald Trump, withdrew from the Paris Agreement again in early 2026 remain bound by these obligations under customary international law.

As the World Bank reported last week, global revenue from carbon pricing has tripled over the last decade – from under $30 billion in 2016 to more than $107 billion for public budgets in 2025, according to a report published last week by the World Bank Group.

Just over 29% of global greenhouse gas emissions are currently covered by direct CO₂ pricing, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). This share would rise to around a third if the instruments currently under development were introduced in other major emerging economies.

In Washington, Donald Trump now expects an agreement with Iran to be imminent and the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened within 30 days of the agreement. And this would be urgently needed, as oil reserves are falling daily and, should the conflict continue and oil supplies from the region remain cut off, would only last until the end of the summer. However, even a prompt resolution is expected to bring increasing supply uncertainty in the autumn.

Prices in the EU ETS1 rose by 1.7% last week compared with the previous week to 76.92 euros in the benchmark contract. EUAs traded within a range of 74.52 to 77.17 euros.

Due to Whit Monday, there will again be only four auctions on the European Energy Exchange this week; the total volume stands at 8,042,500 EUAs, which is 12.9% lower than the previous week.

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team