Dear Sir or Madam,

The term ‘climate protection’ is essentially meaningless, because the climate does not care how warm it is on Earth, so it does not need to be protected. However, humanity, flora and fauna must be protected from the effects of uncontrolled and exponential global warming, which they themselves are causing through our human made greenhouse gas emissions.

Last week, the European Commission presented its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. The EU aims to reduce CO2e emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

From 2036 onwards, this is to be achieved, among other things, by using international emission allowances from third countries, but only for 3%. It is to be hoped that lessons will be learned from the mistakes made in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementations (JI), whose CER (Certified Emission Reductions) and ERU (Emission Reduction Units) certificates were allowed to be used in the EU ETS in the first trading periods at up to 22% and did not always achieve the desired CO2e savings.

In addition, last week Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety published the draft BEHV (Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance), which is intended to regulate the period until EU ETS 2. Among other things, this concerned the auctioning of national emission trading allowances next year in a price range of 55 to 65 euros.

Furthermore, it is planned that only 4% of the nEZ26 available in the registry account on 31 December 2026, instead of the current 10%, can be repurchased at a fixed price of 70 euros in the following year. This also applies to any additional requirements exceeding the total auction volume.

Provisions have also been made in the event that the introduction of EU ETS 2 is delayed. In this case, the national emission allowances are to be auctioned at the volume-weighted average price of the EUAs in EU ETS 1.

Following the introduction of the first futures for EU ETS 2 with a maturity date of December 2028 by the Intercontinental Exchange ICE at the beginning of May this year, the first futures for EUA2 are set to be launched today on the European Energy Exchange EEX in Leipzig.

The planned maturities of the futures contracts are 5 December, 5 April and 12 monthly contracts (first tradable expiry date is December 2027). 

Last week, the price of EUAs in EU ETS 1 ranged between €68.71 and €72.79 in the benchmark future, with trading very much driven by technical factors.

However, there is a fundamental component to watch out for in the new week, namely the deadline set by Donald Trump for the postponed tariffs. According to his own statements, he intends to send letters to 10 to 12 countries with new import tariffs from Friday onwards if agreements are not reached to his satisfaction.

This will naturally have an enormous impact on the financial markets and, accordingly, on the price development of EUAs. Should the markets fall back into their usual hysteria, EUAs could head back towards 60 euros, which would offer good opportunities to cover the CO2 portfolio at a favourable price with any emission allowances still required.

Contact us in good time and your contact person will develop a tailored procurement strategy with you.

After 11,346,500 EUAs were auctioned on the EEX last week, 13,416,000 will be auctioned on all four trading days this week, representing an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous week.

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The Berlin-based think tank Agora Energiewende has determined that the average German electricity price on the stock exchange could fall by up to 23 percent by 2030 if the federal government sticks to its planned expansion path for renewable energies.

Agora estimates that this would mean a reduction of 20 euros per megawatt hour for industry and consumers, provided that the expansion of wind and solar energy continues as stipulated in the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG).

Accordingly, in addition to this relief, there would be scope for a climate allowance to ease the burden on households affected by CO₂ pricing. This is also supported by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as she recently stated in an interview with the Osnabrücker Zeitung. Otherwise, it would be difficult to achieve acceptance of CO₂ pricing in the EU ETS 2.

On Sunday night, the US entered the war between Israel and Iran and destroyed three underground nuclear enrichment facilities in a military operation.

Prices for fossil fuels rose significantly in some cases last week, and the volatile situation in the Middle East will continue to influence the markets this week.

Last week, however, the price of European emission allowances decoupled from the development of fossil fuels and ended the trading week down 3.9% on a weekly closing basis.

This week, a total of 13,416,000 EUAs from the EU, Poland and Germany quotas will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days. This represents an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous week.

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Israel’s military action against clearly defined targets in relation to Tehran’s efforts to produce radioactive materials suitable for use in nuclear weapons has received an expected backlash.

Market participants in the commodity and energy markets have reacted accordingly with regard to the possible impact on gas and oil production in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices rose by just under 10% on Friday before closing the week with a gain of 8.7%. Similar price movements were also observed for gas.

In the wake of this development, EU emission allowances (EUA) also rose to a daily high of EUR 76.75 in the benchmark contract for December 2025, ultimately closing the trading week with a gain of 3.3%.

The military conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and it is unclear whether it will escalate further or whether both parties will return to the negotiating table.

In any case, market participants in the commodity and energy markets will be keeping a close eye on developments in the conflict this week, which will have a corresponding impact on short-term price movements.

As the Polish auction is not taking place this Wednesday, a total of 11,343,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig on the remaining trading days, representing an increase of 11.5% compared to the previous week.

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week saw little in the way of fundamental news that moved the markets for emission allowances.

As a result, prices for European emission allowances continued to fluctuate within the range of around 70 to just under 74 euros that has been evident since the beginning of May.

Market participants remained cautious against the backdrop of the trade dispute triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Nevertheless, EUAs broke through an important technical resistance level last Friday and gained 4.4% on a weekly basis. Among other things, the 5.2% rise in the price of Brent crude oil and the 4.7% rise in the price of British gas compared with the previous week influenced prices.

As trading took place on the energy exchanges yesterday despite the public holiday, the start of the week was also bullish, with EUAs trading well above the €74 mark in the December 2025 benchmark contract.

Prices in the EU ETS 2 (EUA 2) are currently correlating relatively strongly in the December 2028 benchmark contract with EUAs of the same maturity, as no liquid trading has yet emerged there.

Due to Whit Monday, a total of 10,170,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX this week from Tuesday to Friday, 10.3% less than in the previous week.

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team