Dear Sir or Madam,

In 2024, Germany emitted 4.4 million tons of CO2 or its equivalents in other greenhouse gases (CO₂e) more than would have been permitted under the European Climate Protection Regulation.

The goal of the Climate Protection Regulation is European climate neutrality by 2050, with an initial interim step being a 40% reduction in all emissions in the EU by 2030 compared to 2005, the start of EU emissions trading.

As Germany still has a lot of catching up to do in the building and transport sectors, national emissions trading (nEHS) was introduced in 2021 with the Fuel Emissions Trading Act, which is set to replace the fixed price phase for the first time next year with a trading margin of between €55 and €65, and will be replaced by the new EU Emissions Trading System 2 (EU ETS2).

Last week, the Federal Environment Agency published a partial report on an analysis of the implementation of the price corridor in the nEHS in 2026. The Öko Institute and Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI were commissioned to carry out this analysis.

The specific aim was to clarify the issue of the fixed price phase, namely whether continuing the fixed price phase in 2026 would make sense from an economic perspective and whether the administrative effort involved in changing the system for just one year would be justified.

The scientists came to the conclusion that it was likely that the obligated companies would calculate with 65 euros in the sense of conservative hedging and pass these prices on to their customers.

Ultimately, the study concluded that continuing the fixed price phase for one year in 2026 would make sense from an economic, distributional policy, and administrative perspective and should definitely be considered. The expected shortage in the nEHS and EU ETS2 as well as modelling results on expected prices would argue in favour of a fixed price at the upper end of the price corridor of €65 per nEZ26.

The likelihood of the fixed price phase continuing at a price of €65 per ton of CO2 in the coming year has increased accordingly as a result of the study’s findings.

Prices in the EU ETS1 have been noticeably bullish over the past week, as market participants are focused on the end of the submission deadline for 2024.

After overcoming technical resistance, EUAs rose by 4.2% based on weekly closing prices and closed above the €76 mark in the December 2025 benchmark contract, where the upward trend stopped at another technical resistance line located in this area.

If the EUAs overcome this, for which there are good reasons, the next relevant technical resistance would be just below the €82 mark. If the current resistance proves too strong, the price would find its next support lines in the range around €74.00, €72.50, and €70.95.

The Leipzig-based EEX is offering four auctions this week with a total of 11,495,000 EUAs, which represents a 15.8% decline in auction volume compared to last week.

UPCOMING DATES

18/09/2025	Last auction date for national emission allowances (nEZ24) on the EEX with the year identifier 2024 at a price of €45.00
30/09/2025	End of the submission period for German national emission allowances (nEZ24) for year 2024
30/09/2025	End of the submission period for European emission allowances (EUA/EUAA) for the year 2024
04/12/2025	Last auction for German national emission allowances in 2025 (nEZ25)
15/12/2025	Last auction for European emission allowances (EUA) in 2025
07/01/2026	First auction for European emission allowances (EUA) in 2026

Instrument	29/08/25	05/09/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	72.53 EUR	76.04 EUR	+3.05 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	88.24 EUR	89.64 EUR	+1.00 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	52.19 GBP	56.12 GBP	+2.98 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	91.78 GBP	87.14 GBP	+0.75 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	66.77 USD	65.11 USD	-1.78 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1720 USD	1.1719 USD	+0.0034 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last week, Thyssenkrupp called for a weakening of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 1) by allowing industry to continue to receive partially free emission allowances until 2050. This would be a total of 11 years longer than planned in relation to the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement targets.

Competitors such as Salzgitter AG, Dillinger and Saarstahl, on the other hand, have spoken out clearly against extending the issuance of free allowances and thus weakening the impact of emissions trading, as this would penalise those companies that have actively worked on decarbonisation.

The revenues from emissions trading are earmarked and are to be used for the transformation to a climate-neutral society. This is the purpose of the German Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF).

Now, the German Ministry of Finance has come up with the idea of using funds from the KTF for other purposes, namely to purchase emission allowances from other countries if Germany fails to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets in the coming years.

As the Expert Council on Climate Issues has determined, Germany will emit approximately 224 million tonnes of CO₂ or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases too much by 2030, for which Finance Minister Klingbeil (SPD) must now find funds.

This idea has been strongly criticised by both the Union and the opposition.

Last week, the prices of EU emission allowances in the benchmark contract ranged from €71.31 to €73.30. The EUAs remained technically oriented and gained a moderate 0.6% on a weekly closing basis.

A total of 13,657,500 emission allowances will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days this week, representing an increase of 20.3% compared to the previous week.

UPCOMING DATES

18/09/2025	Last auction date for national emission allowances (nEZ24) on the EEX with the year identifier 2024 at a price of €45.00
30/09/2025	End of the submission period for German national emission allowances (nEZ24) for year 2024
30/09/2025	End of the submission period for European emission allowances (EUA/EUAA) for the year 2024
04/12/2025	Last auction for German national emission allowances in 2025 (nEZ25)
15/12/2025	Last auction for European emission allowances (EUA) in 2025
07/01/2026	First auction for European emission allowances (EUA) in 2026

Instrument	22/08/25	29/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	72.53 EUR	72.99 EUR	+0.46 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	88.24 EUR	88.64 EUR	+0.40 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	52.19 GBP	53.14 GBP	+0.95 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	91.78 GBP	86.39 GBP	-5.39 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	66.77 USD	66.89 USD	+0.12 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1720 USD	1.1685 USD	-0.0035 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

Military activities are a largely underestimated factor in global climate change. Despite their enormous emissions, they are hardly taken into account in international climate agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The recording of military emissions is mostly voluntary – many countries cite security concerns and publish no or only incomplete data.

According to estimates, the Gaza War has so far caused at least 32 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions. The war in Ukraine has produced as much as 230 million tonnes in the last three years, and the German armed forces also cause greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 10 million tonnes annually.

According to a working paper by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), military emissions account for around 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This figure includes both direct emissions from combat operations and indirect emissions from infrastructure, logistics and reconstruction.

Armed conflicts are therefore a significant but often overlooked driver of climate change. The estimated emissions from individual wars show that military activities not only cost human lives but also jeopardise climate targets. Greater integration of military emissions into climate policy is therefore urgently needed.

European emission allowances (EUAs) continued to follow technical charts last week and settled above the 200-day line, which has been considered strong support in recent weeks. On Thursday, EUAs broke through the 38-day line to the upside and closed the week with a gain of 2.6%.

This week, a total of 11,350,000 EUAs will be auctioned on four trading days. Due to the biweekly cancellation of the Polish Wednesday auction, this represents a decrease of 15.4% compared to the previous week.

In the German national emissions trading system, auctions for emission allowances with the annual identifier 2024 (nEZ24) will only take place for another four weeks at a price of 45 euros under the 10% post-auction purchase rule on the EEX.

The last fixed-price auction for nEZ24 will take place on Thursday, 18 September 2025, and purchase orders can be placed here until 3 p.m..

In order to avoid technical problems, difficulties with payment transactions or other unforeseen circumstances, we recommend that you do not wait until the last week.

Our specialists will be happy to answer any questions you may have about emissions trading.

Instrument	15/08/25	22/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	70.68 EUR	72.53 EUR	+1.85 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	86.37 EUR	88.24 EUR	+1.87 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	50.80 GBP	52.19 GBP	+1.39 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	86.46 GBP	91.78 GBP	+5.32 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	66.14 USD	66.77 USD	+0.63 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1699 USD	1.1720 USD	+0.0021 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

While in Norway a whopping 97% of new registrations are electric vehicles, Germany lags far behind with less than 19%. There are many reasons for this: cheap electricity from renewables (99%), consistent government support and clear political rigour have made the Scandinavians pioneers in e-mobility. In Germany, on the other hand, there is uncertainty – not only about the infrastructure, but also about the political stance. The change has been approved, but implementation remains bumpy. Unlike Norway, Germany has an influential automotive industry.

However, Germany’s wavering course is by no means a signal that the energy transition and the next industrial revolution should be shaken up.

Fortunately, decision-makers in industry (not only) in this country are showing understanding and making serious efforts to achieve CO2-neutral production. A new generation of management decisions is emerging that not only aim at short-term efficiency and competitiveness, but also actively contribute to decarbonisation.

This requires the courage to invest in new technologies, accept long payback periods and see regulatory uncertainties as an opportunity for innovation. There are already many examples of this:

In the steel industry, the combination of Direct Reduction and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) is considered the key to climate-neutral production.

In Direct Reduction, iron ore is processed into Hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) – a process that replaces the coal-based blast furnace and drastically reduces carbon emissions. The Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is then melted down in an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). These furnaces run on electricity and do not require any additional coal or coke. This results in a completely carbon-free process – provided that the energy comes from wind, solar or hydro power.

In the chemical industry, there is growing evidence that CO2 can not only be avoided, but also used as a raw material. Carbon capture is being integrated into existing processes, and new value chains are emerging around CO2-based products.

The cement industry is rethinking product design, with pioneers investing in CO2-free binders as well as in technologies for capturing, storing or reusing the CO2 produced during cement production.

The range of possible adjustments is almost endless – and more and more companies are recognising the opportunity to set new international standards through smart management decisions. A new generation of industrial policy is emerging that sees ecology and economy not as contradictions, but as a connected future. Artificial intelligence and, at some point, quantum physics will be added as powerful catalysts.

In the past trading week, the EUA closed lower than the previous week’s closing price in a gentle downward trend that was only briefly interrupted on Wednesday, losing all its gains with a settlement price of 70.68 euros.

It almost seems as if traders have been comfortable in this range for many weeks now. However, there will not be anything like a ‘neutral zone’ here in the long run, and some indicators suggest that the market could take a new, bullish turn in the foreseeable future.

Instrument	08/08/25	15/08/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	73.21 EUR	70.68 EUR	-2.53 EUR
EUA 2 (December-28-Future)	88.97 EUR	86.37 EUR	-2.60 EUR
nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	51.86 GBP	50.80 GBP	-1.06 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	90.52 GBP	86.46 GBP	-4.06 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future)	65.49 USD	66.14 USD	+0.65 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1642 USD	1.1699 USD	+0.0057 USD

(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team