Tag: EU ETS

Dear Sirs and Madams,

The EU Commission plans to extend the CO₂ border tax CBAM (Carbon Borderline Adjustment Mechanism) to 180 additional products from third countries from 2026, primarily to machinery and equipment with a high steel or aluminium content.

The intention behind this is to protect European industry and prevent relocation abroad (carbon leakage).

In addition, a decarbonisation fund is to support affected companies with CO₂ costs, financed by revenues from CBAM certificates and EU funds.

Furthermore, the use of aluminium and steel scrap to reduce emissions will also be taken into account in future. The CBAM will gradually replace the free CO₂ certificates for energy-intensive companies in the EU by 2034.

Another effect of the CBAM is that more and more third countries are establishing or expanding their own emissions trading systems in order to price greenhouse gas emissions in their own countries, so that less CO₂ levies are paid into the European CBAM and remain in their own treasuries.

The costs of CO₂ pricing under the CBAM are based on the EU ETS1, and its prices have been developing in a clearly visible upward channel since the summer, currently ranging between approximately €85.50 and €89.00 in the December 2026 benchmark future and moving slowly but steadily upwards.

Of course, there is always the possibility that the price will break out of a trend channel, but there are currently no technical or fundamental reasons to suggest this will happen.

For this reason, it could be of interest to compliance buyers to partially order for their own CO₂ portfolio below the EUR 90 mark.

In this week, which is shortened by the two Christmas holidays, trading on the EEX will end at 13:00 on 24 December 2025 and the last settlement on the ICE ENDEX will be at 14:00.

As usual, we are available for you until the close of trading and wish you a relaxing holiday season.

Instrument	12/12/25	19/12/25	Change
EUA (December-26-Future)	86.04 EUR	87.05 EUR	+1.01 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	73.81 EUR	74.74 EUR	+0.93 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-26-Future (UK))	58.30 GBP	65.53 GBP	+7.23 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-26-Future)	72.28 GBP	72.08 GBP	-0.20 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-26-Future)	60.66 USD	59.90 USD	-0.76 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1741 USD	1.1709 USD	-0.0032 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The European Union is planning to withdraw from the ban on new registrations of motor vehicles with combustion engines from 2035 onwards and thus appears to be seriously considering supporting the European automotive industry and its suppliers.

However, the opposite is true. The meteoric rise of Chinese companies, which now produce very good and affordable vehicles, has been achieved precisely because of political guidelines in the People’s Republic of China.

A departure from the ban on combustion engines will only lead to the Chinese automotive industry increasing its lead even more significantly, which will have disastrous consequences for the already struggling European automotive industry. Brands such as BYD, Zeekr and Nio are already coming to Europe and showcasing their technological innovations.

Last Thursday, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) published the new auction calendar for the EU ETS1, heralding the end of so-called ‘frontloading’.

In the auctions for the first three quarters of 2026, 10,755,500 EUAs will be auctioned in the weeks when the Polish Wednesday auctions take place every two weeks, which represents a 21.2% decrease compared to the current volume.

In the weeks when the Polish auction is paused, 9,230,500 EUAs will be auctioned, representing a decrease of 19.7%.

Even though auctions will pick up again in the fourth quarter, a total volume of 531,286,500 emission allowances will be auctioned next year, which is 9.8% fewer certificates than in 2025 (588,735,000).

Market participants took this as an opportunity to push the price up slightly, ending the past trading week with a gain of 2.2%.

Today, the last auction for 2025 will take place in the EU ETS1 with a volume of 3,273,000 EUAs. The first auction of the coming year will be held on 7 January 2026.

Instrument	05/12/25	12/12/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	81.98 EUR	83.79 EUR	+1.81 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	71.42 EUR	73.81 EUR	+2.39 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	56.10 GBP	55.90 GBP	-0.20 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	70.95 GBP	73.24 GBP	+2.29 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	63.75 USD	63.20 USD	-0.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1644 USD	1.1741 USD	+0.0097 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

The European Commission plans to allocate €5.2 billion from the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to projects in the so-called Innovation Fund. €2.9 billion is earmarked for net-zero technologies, €1.3 billion for the third hydrogen bank auction and €1.0 billion for the decarbonisation of industrial process heat. The aim is to strengthen the competitiveness of European industry in the field of clean technologies.

Funding will be provided for particularly innovative projects such as components for renewable energies, energy storage, heat pumps, hydrogen production and electric vehicle batteries. Clean hydrogen projects that replace fossil fuels in heavy industry and transport will also be supported. The auctions target the production of green or low-carbon hydrogen and the decarbonisation of industrial process heat, which accounts for a large proportion of industrial emissions.

The EU Innovation Fund is a key funding instrument for low-carbon technologies with a budget of around €40 billion. To date, over 275 projects have been funded with a total of €15.8 billion.

Last week, prices in the EU ETS ranged between €81.22 and €83.37 in the December 2025 benchmark contract, which expires in a week. On a weekly closing basis, EUAs thus fell by a moderate 1.5%.

A total of 13,666,000 EUAs will be auctioned on the Leipzig based Energy Exchange EEX on all five trading days this week, representing an increase of 18.9% compared to last week.

Next Monday, the last auction of 2025 under the EU ETS will take place here, with a supply volume of 3,273,000 allowances from the EU quota.

The last regular auction in Germany’s national emissions trading scheme, on the other hand, took place last Thursday, and it is advisable to leave the allowances in the registry account on 31 December 2025 in order to be able to purchase any allowances that may still be needed next year under the 10% top-up rule.

To this end, the EEX has scheduled weekly auctions on Tuesdays starting on 13 January 2026. From 1 to 17 September 2026, these will take place on Tuesdays and Thursdays as before.

Instrument	28/11/25	05/12/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	83.26 EUR	81.98 EUR	-1.28 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	72.61 EUR	71.42 EUR	-1.19 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	58.28 GBP	56.10 GBP	-2.18 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	75.67 GBP	70.95 GBP	-4.72 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	63.20 USD	63.75 USD	+0.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1598 USD	1.1644 USD	+0.0046 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

It is certainly premature to assume that the Russian war against Ukraine will end soon, but market participants in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS1) are also monitoring political developments very closely.

Among other things, gas prices have fallen, as a peace agreement is expected to result in cheaper supplies, which in turn would benefit European industry.

However, it is still unclear whether import restrictions on Russian oil and gas would be lifted promptly in the event of a peace agreement.

Donald Trump naturally has a strong interest in continuing to export US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil to Europe for the time being.

However, the reconstruction of Ukraine’s destroyed cities and infrastructure would not only boost economic growth there, but also in the European Union.

The fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) estimates the cost of rebuilding Ukraine by 2035 at around €506 billion, which is more than the state can afford.

Reconstruction is a challenging task, but it also offers long-term economic opportunities for Ukraine and the European companies involved there. Modernisation in various areas opens up sustainable opportunities for such companies. Examples such as German reunification demonstrate this.

This would very likely be bullish for emission allowances and could push EUAs above the €100 mark, which is why companies subject to trading obligations should adjust their procurement strategy accordingly in good time.

We would be happy to assist you in this.

At the end of last week’s trading, EUAs moved upwards through a resistance line in the region of 82.20 within the still stable upward trend channel and achieved a gain of 3.5% on a weekly closing basis.

With the exception of Wednesday, the EEX is auctioning a total of 11,495,000 EUAs on the remaining trading days. The last auction for EUAs this year will take place on Monday, 15 December 2025.

The last auction for 2025 national emission allowances will take place this Thursday.

Instrument	21/11/25	28/11/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	80.41 EUR	83.26 EUR	+2.85 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	69.67 EUR	72.61 EUR	+2.94 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	57.77 GBP	58.28 GBP	+0.51 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	78.56 GBP	75.67 GBP	-2.89 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	61.84 USD	63.20 USD	+1.36 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1514 USD	1.1598 USD	+0.0084 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team

Dear Sir or Madam,

In the mid-18th century, a decisive step in the Industrial Revolution began in Coalbrookdale in the west of England with the first coke-fired iron smelting. Between 1775 and 1779, the world’s first iron bridge was built there. Around 250 years later, the international community could have decided to end the use of fossil fuels as an energy source at the COP30 World Climate Conference in Brazil. However, as we know, this did not happen.

Instead, the conference ended with a minimal compromise: global greenhouse gas emissions are still to be significantly reduced in order to meet the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement. In addition, a ‘global implementation accelerator’ is to be created to support ambitious initiatives under the roof of the UN climate conferences. A key outcome concerns climate aid for developing countries: this is to be tripled by 2035, to an estimated 120 billion US dollars annually.

Germany is contributing one billion euros over ten years to a new tropical forest fund called the ‘Tropical Forest Forever Facility’ (TFFF), which was presented by the host country, Brazil. The fund is intended to reward countries that preserve their forests and mobilise billions for the protection of the rainforest in the long term.

In addition, a new climate alliance was launched in Belém: the ‘Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets’. The aim is to harmonise existing emissions trading systems worldwide, thereby making international trade more transparent and fairer. In addition to the EU, China, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Chile and Zambia are currently members of the alliance.

The new alliance increases pressure on countries that have so far refused to join, including the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, China is demonstrating the economic opportunities: in 2025, the country already generated higher revenues from the export of green technologies than the United States did from fossil fuels. A globally coordinated CO2 market could make emissions more expensive and accelerate investment in climate-friendly technologies. EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra described the coordination of carbon markets as a potential catalyst for the energy transition.

Prices for EUAs in the European Emissions Trading System (ETS1) moved within a significantly narrower price range last trading week than in the previous week. Despite the lower momentum and a rather weak second half of the week, the price remained slightly bullish. The lower limit was EUR 79.52, and the peak was EUR 81.89.

The auction calendar shows auctions on all five days this week with a total volume of 13,657,500 allowances. To purchase allowances from the German national emissions trading scheme (nEHS) for 2025, there are only four auction dates left this week and the next. The subsequent purchase under the 10 per cent rule will start on 13 January 2026.

Instrument	14/11/25	21/11/25	Change
EUA (December-25-Future)	80.93 EUR	80.41 EUR	-0.52 EUR
EUA2 (December-28-Future)	70.15 EUR	69.67 EUR	-0.48 EUR
nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D))	55.00 EUR	55.00 EUR	+0.00 EUR
UKA (December-25-Future (UK))	57.00 GBP	57.77 GBP	+0.77 GBP
UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future)	82.39 GBP	78.56 GBP	-3.83 GBP
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future)	64.39 USD	61.84 USD	-2.55 USD
EURO (Forex)	1.1621 USD	1.1514 USD	-0.0107 USD

(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.

With kind regards,

Your Advantag – Team