Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (06/04/2020)

Dear Sirs and Madams,

Around 800 million tonnes of greenhouse gases were emitted in Germany in 2019, which corresponds to a 6.3% decrease compared to 2018, as the preliminary assessment by the Federal Environment Agency shows. This means a decrease of 35.7% compared to 1990.

The energy industry in particular contributed to this with a reduction of approx. 17%, which was mainly due to the lower use of coal due to the higher prices for emission rights, but also to the higher share of renewable energies.

In the transport and building sectors, on the other hand, there were increasing carbon emissions, not least due to the sales figures for high-performance motor vehicles and SUVs.

So far, the year of the financial and economic crisis 2009 was the year with the largest decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, which will now be followed by 2019.

How big the decline will be in 2020 cannot yet be estimated, since nobody can estimate with any certainty when the crisis mode will be released and the economy can pick up speed again. In addition, it is still completely uncertain how high the direct economic effects and their collateral damage will be.

This will also determine the prices for carbon emissions allowances in the coming weeks, which have shown a first bottoming in the past week. The extent to which this continues depends not least on political decisions taken at national and European level to alleviate the crisis in Europe.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)   
Instrument27/03/202003/04/2020Change
EUA (Spotmarket)16.31 EUR17,86 EUR+1.55 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future)16.39 EUR18,06 EUR+1.67 EUR
CER (Spotmarket)0.29 EUR0,31 EUR+0.02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)28.15 USD34,95 USD+6.80 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1.1169 USD1,0802 USD-0.0367 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissionshandel / CO2 – Marktbericht vom 06.04.2020

Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren,

2019 wurden in Deutschland ungefähr 800 Millionen Tonnen Treibhausgase emittiert, was einem Rückgang von 6,3% gegenüber 2018 entspricht, wie die vorläufige Bilanz des Umweltbundesamtes aufzeigt. Dies bedeutet gegenüber 1990 einen Rückgang um 35,7%.

Insbesondere die Energiewirtschaft trug hierzu mit einer Reduktion von ca. 17% bei, was vor allem an der gesunkenen Nutzung von Kohle aufgrund der höheren Preise für Emissionsrechte lag, aber auch am höheren Anteil erneuerbarer Energien.

In den Bereichen Verkehr und Gebäude hingegen waren steigende CO2-Emissionen zu verzeichnen, was nicht zuletzt an den Verkaufszahlen leistungsstarker Kraftfahrzeuge und SUVs lag.

Bislang war das Jahr der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2009 das Jahr mit dem größten Rückgang an Treibhausgasemissionen, was nun von 2019 gefolgt wird.

Wie hoch der Rückgang im Jahr 2020 sein wird, lässt sich noch nicht abschätzen, da niemand mit auch nur annähernder Sicherheit abschätzen kann, wann der Krisenmodus aufgehoben wird und die Wirtschaft wieder Fahrt aufnehmen kann. Zudem ist noch völlig ungewiss, wie hoch die direkten ökonomischen Auswirkungen und deren Kollateralschäden sein werden.

Dies wird auch die Preise für CO2-Emissionen in den kommenden Wochen bestimmen, welche in der vergangenen Woche eine erste Bodenbildung gezeigt haben. Inwieweit diese anhält, hängt nicht zuletzt von politischen Entscheidungen ab, welche auf nationaler und europäischer Ebene getroffen werden, um die Krise in Europa abzumildern.

(Durchschnittliche Börsenkurse / OTC)   
Instrument27.03.2003.04.20Veränderung
EUA (Spotmarkt)16,31 EUR17,86 EUR+1,55 EUR
EUA (Dezember-2020-Future)16,39 EUR18,06 EUR+1,67 EUR
CER (Spotmarkt)0,29 EUR0,31 EUR+0,02 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)28,15 USD34,95 USD+6,80 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)1,1169 USD1,0802 USD-0,0367 USD

(Die durchschnittlichen Börsenkurse und OTC-Preise zeigen das jeweilige Mittel von Angebot und Nachfrage verschiedener Handelsplätze für CO2-Emissionsrechte. Bid und Ask weichen üblicherweise mehrere Cent vom Mittelwert ab. Rohöl und Euro zeigen Börsenschlusskurse. Bei den CER-Kursen handelt es sich um CP2-CERs, welche im Rahmen des EU-ETS Verwendung finden können. Unsere Marktberichte stellen keine Empfehlung zum Handel von Emissionsrechten oder deren Derivaten dar und dienen ausschließlich der Information. Sollten Sie den Newsletter nicht mehr beziehen wollen, bitten wir um eine kurze Nachricht an den Absender.)

Bei Rückfragen steht Ihnen unser Händlerteam jederzeit gerne zur Verfügung.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen

Ihre

Advantag Services GmbH 

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (30/03/2020)

Dear Sirs and Madams,

There is certainly no lack of comments and assessments on the global corona crisis these days. In any case, it is a unique opportunity to observe how people react in crisis mode. Because all people are decision makers. Whether one has to make decisions for oneself, for a family, a company or a state. As the sometimes very controversial discussions show, it is of course anything but easy to make the right decisions and to foresee the consequences completely correctly.

Just how difficult this is can also be seen in the various markets. The oil price, for example, has so far lost almost 60 percent compared to the beginning of the crisis. Last night, the price fell once again, dropping to its 2002 low as the market was just processing the attack on the World Trade Centre. The trigger for the rather unexpected further drop in price could have been the renewed reversal in the assessment of the situation by US President Donald Trump, who suddenly spoke of a limit of 100,000 deaths being a success in the United States due to the virus. The fact that two major players in the oil market, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have apparently got caught up in a price war is also a burden.

The CO2 market, on the other hand, has been slightly optimistic in the past trading week. At the beginning of the week, the price of the December contract on the London ICE faced its lowest point since the beginning of the crisis at a nominal EUR 14.34, but during the week, it tendered up to EUR 17.80. This high volatility on a weekly basis still speaks for the uncertainty of many traders, but a factually correct decoupling from the oil price can also be seen.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 20/03/2020 27/03/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 16.02 EUR 16,31 EUR +0.29 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 16.11 EUR 16,39 EUR +0.28 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.29 EUR 0,29 EUR +0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 27.21 USD 28,15 USD +0.94 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.0688 USD 1,1169 USD +0.0481 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (23/03/2020)

Dear Sirs and Madames,

After a week in crisis mode, measures to slow down the corona pandemic have now been extended to all European countries. Not only is public life largely at a standstill, companies are also feeling the violent effects of the crisis.

Germany now wants to provide 600 billion to support the economy as state aid, in the United States it should even be a trillion US dollars.

In Germany, the auto industry, the chemical and pharmaceutical industries as well as electrical engineering will be affected to a great extent, but also the tourism industry.

The big question here is how long the state of emergency will last and when it will return to normal. The economy would be able to hold out for two or three weeks and regain momentum with government aid, but the problem will continue for longer. Virus researchers say it won’t be possible to return to normal mode until 2021.

Accordingly, the financial markets are correspondingly nervous and have suffered immense price losses, as an economic and financial crisis threatens an unprecedented scale and will question capitalism in its current form.

The CO2 emission rights have also suffered high losses and have lost a substantial 10 euros since the beginning of the corona crisis. In view of the market stability reserve, which is intended to counteract an abundance of allowances in phases of the recession, this seems unnecessary, but it cannot be ruled out that the EU could also create special regulations here.

In particular, the German Emissions Trading Authority has already announced that no measures will be initiated due to late compliance fulfillment of the duty to pay, insofar as this has not been carried out in good time, for example due to the illness of employees.

We wish you a pleasant working week and are available from your home office as usual during normal trading hours.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 13/03/2020 20/03/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 21.92 EUR 16.02 EUR -5.90 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 21.94 EUR 16.11 EUR -5.83 EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.29 EUR 0.29 EUR +0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 35.07 USD 27.21 USD -7.86 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1100 USD 1.0688 USD -0.0412 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (16/03/2020)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In the past few days, events in Europe and the rest of the world have developed with unprecedented dynamism in relation to the corona virus.

Apart from the effects on social life and health care, the economy in particular will suffer significantly from the events. But now not only large companies from the manufacturing or service sectors are affected, it will also burden small and medium-sized companies.

One only has to think of the restaurants, bars, retailers and handicraft businesses, which in many cases do not have sufficient liquidity reserves to survive a business shutdown even for a few weeks. Even if the German government and the EU want to take historic measures to contain the economic and financial crisis, many smaller companies will still be hard hit because aid loans will also have to be repaid.

Financial markets closed with a plus sign after last week’s crash last Friday, and the Nikkei in Tokyo posted only a slight loss. However, the nervousness is likely to result in further losses, which is not surprising given the dynamic developments at the political level.

To avoid Italian conditions, further cuts appear to be unavoidable in Germany from the current perspective, which should not lead to buyers returning to the financial markets.

While the CO2 emission rights had held up fairly well last week and survived the crash on the stock and energy markets with relatively moderate losses, they slumped by more than 8% on Monday morning at the start of trading. The further development in Europe will certainly remain the most important factor in the coming days and weeks.

The Advantag team will continue to be available for you as usual in the coming days.

  (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)      
Instrument 06/03/2020 13/03/2020 Change
EUA (Spotmarket) 23.40 EUR 21.92 EUR -1.48 EUR
EUA (December-2019-Future) 23.42 EUR 21.94 EUR -1.48EUR
CER (Spotmarket) 0.29 EUR 0.29 EUR +0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future) 45.46 USD 35.07 USD -10.42 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex) 1.1284 USD 1.1100 USD +0.0184 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH