Dear Sir or Madam,
The European Union is planning to withdraw from the ban on new registrations of motor vehicles with combustion engines from 2035 onwards and thus appears to be seriously considering supporting the European automotive industry and its suppliers.
However, the opposite is true. The meteoric rise of Chinese companies, which now produce very good and affordable vehicles, has been achieved precisely because of political guidelines in the People’s Republic of China.
A departure from the ban on combustion engines will only lead to the Chinese automotive industry increasing its lead even more significantly, which will have disastrous consequences for the already struggling European automotive industry. Brands such as BYD, Zeekr and Nio are already coming to Europe and showcasing their technological innovations.
Last Thursday, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) published the new auction calendar for the EU ETS1, heralding the end of so-called ‘frontloading’.
In the auctions for the first three quarters of 2026, 10,755,500 EUAs will be auctioned in the weeks when the Polish Wednesday auctions take place every two weeks, which represents a 21.2% decrease compared to the current volume.
In the weeks when the Polish auction is paused, 9,230,500 EUAs will be auctioned, representing a decrease of 19.7%.
Even though auctions will pick up again in the fourth quarter, a total volume of 531,286,500 emission allowances will be auctioned next year, which is 9.8% fewer certificates than in 2025 (588,735,000).
Market participants took this as an opportunity to push the price up slightly, ending the past trading week with a gain of 2.2%.
Today, the last auction for 2025 will take place in the EU ETS1 with a volume of 3,273,000 EUAs. The first auction of the coming year will be held on 7 January 2026.
| Instrument | 05/12/25 | 12/12/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 81.98 EUR | 83.79 EUR | +1.81 EUR |
| EUA2 (December-28-Future) | 71.42 EUR | 73.81 EUR | +2.39 EUR |
| nEZ25 (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 56.10 GBP | 55.90 GBP | -0.20 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 70.95 GBP | 73.24 GBP | +2.29 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (Januar-26-Future) | 63.75 USD | 63.20 USD | -0.55 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1644 USD | 1.1741 USD | +0.0097 USD |
(EUA, EUA2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team