Dear Sir or Madam,

You can now see it clearly in the development of energy prices for German private households – energy costs are currently higher than they have been in 10 years. According to the comparison portal Verivox, prices have increased by almost 7% compared to December 2020.

Heating oil was right at the top of the list with an increase of 12%, closely followed by diesel with an average increase of 11.2% and gasoline was still just under 10%.

In addition to the increased exchange prices for crude oil, the national emissions trading in Germany is also a reason for the rise in energy prices and the EU’s CO2 emissions trading.

Last week, the prices in European emissions trading increased significantly by almost 16% to 38.20 euros and the start of the new trading week was still clearly bullish with a current new all-time high of 39.80 euros. All in all, prices have increased by around 60% since November 2020.

In addition to the already mentioned higher crude oil prices, which this morning cracked the 60 US dollar mark for Brent crude oil, the cold snap is another price driver for CO2 emission rights.

Market observers and analysts are currently in the process of adapting their forecasts of price developments to current market developments. An analyst for an oil hedge fund even brought up the € 100 mark that prices could reach this year, as Bloomberg wrote. The market also took this visibly bullish last week.

Most other market participants, however, are not quite as optimistic and tend to expect highs between 40 and 50 euros. From a purely chart-technical point of view, a price correction to the range of 35 euros for EUAs would currently be a common reaction, insofar as market participants with larger positions decide to take profits or large system operators delay their purchase decisions more and more. A correction – possibly after reaching the EUR 40 mark – could only be short-lived, as buyers would probably use this level for purchases again.

This week, the normal auction volume of 15,091,500 EUA will again be auctioned on all five trading days at the Leipzig EEX; It should remain exciting to see how strong the demand from market participants will be and whether auctions will be closed again well above the market price, as happened last week.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	22/01/2021	29/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	34.15 EUR	32.88 EUR	-1.27 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	34.24 EUR	32.95 EUR	-1.29 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.36 EUR	0.35 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	55.18 USD	55.03 USD	-0.15 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2173 USD	1.2136 USD	-0.0037 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

It shouldn’t surprise anyone – in Germany, greenhouse gas emissions in the Corona year 2020 fell by more than 80 million tons to around 722 million tons, according to estimates by the “Agora Energiewende” think tank. Here Germany has even exceeded the ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to the reference year 1990 by the end of 2020; the current status of the data investigations showed that the total reduction was 42.3%.

Here, the corona-related emission reduction is awarded about 2/3 part. Without this effect, however, the decline would also have been another 25 million tons compared to 2019, which would, however, only mean an overall reduction of 37.8% compared to 1990.

Due to the further increase in the share of renewable energies of around 45% in 2020, the real reductions in emissions were only recorded in the electricity sector, as the think tank Agora emphasized. In addition, due to the further increase in the prices of CO2 certificates, coal-fired power generation was replaced by the use of gas-fired power plants as well as renewables, whereby gas is 40% less harmful to the climate than coal. Power generation from coal in Germany has been halved since 2015, particularly due to the European CO2 emissions trading system.

For the year 2021, however, Agora assumes that emissions will rise again, as emissions in the industrial and transport sector are expected to rise, which is why prices for carbon emissions will continue to rise.

The national German CO2 emissions trading, which starts this year for the building and transport sector at € 25 per ton, will continue to drive the trend towards building renovation, renewable heat production and electromobility, but more far-reaching climate policy measures would have to be taken to achieve this not endanger the climate targets.

In the past week, the prices for European emission rights moved between 32.22 and 34.69 euros per ton and closed on a weekly basis with a minus of 3.7%. On Friday the first auction of new EUAs of the 4th trading period took place, which was carried out for Germany. A total of 27 bidders have bid for the 2,651,000 EUA with a cover ratio of 1.59, whereby the final auction price was 33.51 euros and Germany received revenues of 88.8 million euros. This week, 15.1 million EUA from the quotas of the EU, Poland and Germany will be auctioned on all five trading days.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	22/01/2021	29/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	34.15 EUR	32.88 EUR	-1.27 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	34.24 EUR	32.95 EUR	-1.29 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.36 EUR	0.35 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	55.18 USD	55.03 USD	-0.15 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2173 USD	1.2136 USD	-0.0037 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Joe Biden took office in Washington last week and one of his first acts was to initiate the United States’ return to the Paris Agreement and to sign a letter to that effect to the United Nations. If the letter of accession is accepted, the US will officially rejoin the agreement 30 days later.

Nobody less than former US Secretary of State John Kerry has been appointed as special envoy for climate protection in the United States’ national security council. Furthermore, President Joe Biden has instructed his government employees to identify all decisions made by the Donald Trump administration to the detriment of environmental and climate protection and to initiate appropriate countermeasures.

Last week, the bulls again set the tone on the market for European CO2 emission rights and caused prices to rise by almost 8% compared to the bearish previous week. On Friday this Week the first auction of EUAs from the new trading period takes place. At the Leipzig EEX, 2,651,000 EUAs from the German contingent will be offered for auction; in the following 5th calendar week of the year there are then a total of 15,091,500 emission certificates.

When purchasing emission rights to meet the compliance obligation for 2020, please ensure that the EUAs for the new trading period cannot be used for 2020 and discuss your needs with your trader, who will transfer the required certificates to you. In the newly designed Union Registry you will then see which trading period the EUAs are to be assigned to.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	15/01/2021	22/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	31.64 EUR	34.15 EUR	+2.51 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	31.74 EUR	34.24 EUR	+2.50 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.36 EUR	0.36 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	54.86 USD	55.18 USD	+0.32 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2078 USD	1.2173 USD	+0.0095 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

in Germany this week there are signs of a tightening of the lockdown and in the USA the transfer of power from Donald Trump to the new US President Joe Biden is to take place.

Since the newest uncertainties due to the state of mind of Donald Trump and his partly militant supporters, the financial and commodity markets have initially shifted into reverse gear and numerous investors have taken profits, which naturally leads to easier prices.

It is still uncertain to what extent the German prime ministers of the individual federal states will be able to agree on further tightening of the lockdown on Tuesday, but an extensive home office obligation and the obligation to wear FFP2 masks could come, with further effects on the economy and thus the stock and commodity exchanges events are feared.

In addition, milder temperatures are arriving in Central Europe this week, which in turn reduces CO2 emissions for heat energy generation.

All in all, these are apparently enough facts to allow both the German DAX and the CO2 emission allowances to start the new trading week with losses.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	08/01/2021	15/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	34.80 EUR	31.64 EUR	-3.16 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	34.92 EUR	31.74 EUR	-3.18 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.37 EUR	0.36 EUR	-0.01 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	56.18 USD	54.86 USD	-1.32 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2212 USD	1.2078 USD	-0.0134 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

By January 7th, 2021, the software of the Union Registry was subjected to a major update and is now available again for users. Anyone who has logged in since then will see information on the home page that transactions for the EU 100 accounts with system operators can only be carried out with trust accounts based on the dual control principle, and with trading accounts and earlier personal accounts only dual control-Principle to both trust and non-trust accounts. Most account holders have done this in the past.

Another novelty with the accounts is that you can already use EUA on this subpage. EUAA, CHU and CHUA can select. It should be of particular interest, however, that it is now divided into which trading period the EUA or EUAA are as soon as one selects an account. As already mentioned a few weeks ago, the emission rights of the fourth trading period, which will be auctioned from January 29, 2021, cannot be used for the compliance for 2020. When purchasing emission rights for the last year, you should pay attention to this information.

In the past week, not only did the DAX reach a new all-time high of over 14,000 points, the CO2 emission rights also set a new high at 35.20 euros in the December future. There were, of course, reasons for this – optimistic financial markets and below-average temperatures in Europe as well as a generally stronger energy complex further reinforced the bullish tendency. The EUA start the new week a little easier.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	31/12/2020	08/01/2021	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	32.54 EUR	34.80 EUR	+2.26 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	32.72 EUR	34.92 EUR	+2.20 EUR
CER (Spot-Market)	0.37 EUR	0.37 EUR	+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	51.42 USD	56.18 USD	+4.76 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.2197 USD	1.2212 USD	+0.0015 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CER CP1 and ERU are eligible in ETS until end of March 2015 and must be swapped into EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH