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Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (12/08/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

The European Commission has decided that EU member states will be allowed to auction around 4% more European Emission Allowances (EUAs) in the period from September to December 2024 than in the same period last year. The reason for this was the cost of switching the energy supply in order to end dependence on Russia.

A few days ago, the European Energy Exchange (EEX) published its current auction calendar for the period from September to December of this year.

This means that 13,404,500 EUAs will be auctioned on all five trading days this week, when the Polish primary market auction takes place on a regular basis, compared to 14,582,500 in a comparable week in September.

In addition, there will only be a few auction-free days, as in the weeks in which there are usually no Polish auctions on Wednesdays, either EU auctions are held or Northern Ireland auctions.

In total, 8.2 million more EUAs will be auctioned than was planned in the original auction calendar, which would mean additional revenue of 574.0 million euros at the current price of around 70 euros.

The last auction of 3,248,000 EUAs this year will take place on Monday, 16 December 2024.

In the previous trading week, EUA prices repeatedly found support at the 200-day and 38-day lines, although they were only able to overcome the strong resistance of a sideways downward resistance line intraday.

The 38-day line is currently turning slightly upwards at EUR 69.55, while the 200-day line is still showing bearish tendencies and currently stands at EUR 67.44.

If the EUAs are unable to sustainably break through the resistance of the sideways downwards line in the new trading week, the price will fall below the EUR 70 mark again and probably test the support of the 38 and 200-day lines.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument02/08/2409/08/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)70.58 EUR70.14 EUR-0.44 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.78 USD0.48 USD-0.30 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.18 USD0.14 USD-0.04 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)78.17 USD80.32 USD+2.15 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0911 USD1.0914 USD+0.0003 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com). which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting, EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Posted on

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (05/08/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam

The German Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK) has presented a 142-page draft bill to amend the Greenhouse Emissions Trading Act (TEHG).

According to the draft, all installations such as stationary installations, aircraft, ships, combustibles and fuels are to be regulated in one law in future. For the years 2024 to 2026, however, the changes are to be implemented in the existing legal structure.

In addition, fossil fuels in agriculture, forestry, rail transport and the incineration of waste are to be included in future. Biomass plants, some of which have been able to make a profit from the allocation of free allowances to date, will no longer be subject to reporting or surrender obligations and will therefore no longer receive free allocations.

It remains to be seen what changes will be made in the committees before the amendment to the TEHG becomes legally binding.

In China, 2,257 power generation plants are currently priced via the national emissions trading scheme. The price for a tonne of CO2 there is currently the equivalent of EUR 11.70 and has risen by 15.1% since the beginning of the year. Since the start of CO2 emissions trading in China, the price has almost doubled.

In the short term, China plans to use the now established emissions trading system to reduce emissions in line with the EU emissions trading scheme. To this end, emitters from other sectors will be successively subjected to the trading obligation, which is certainly also a success of the EU’s CBAM (Carbon Borderline Adjustment Mechanism), as otherwise the pricing of imports from China would be almost entirely the responsibility of the EU.

And prices in EU emissions trading are still far removed from Chinese prices. In the last trading week, they rose by 4% and closed above the EUR 70 mark per tonne of CO2.

After overcoming the 200-day line, which currently stands at EUR 67.80, the 38-day line, which currently stands at EUR 69.51, was also overcome. The bullish trend was only halted by a resistance line, which is currently in the region of EUR 71.30.

However, depending on how the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East develop, the share price could either overcome the resistance line and continue towards the EUR 80 mark or fall back to the EUR 65 region.

With the exception of Wednesday, a total of 11,094,500 EUA will be auctioned on the EEX in Leipzig this week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument26/07/2402/08/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)67.87 EUR70.58 EUR+2.71 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)0.98 USD0.78 USD-0.20 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.20 USD0.18 USD-0.02 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)80.63 USD78.17 USD-1.06 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0855 USD1.0911 USD+0.0056 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com). which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting, EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Posted on

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (29/07/2024)

Ladies and gentlemen,

The 2024 Summer Olympics are currently taking place in Paris. A mega event which, in addition to great sporting achievements, will also have a high carbon footprint. If the organizers have their way, the associated greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 50% compared to previous events.

The calculated carbon footprint of the last Olympic Games in Tokyo in 2021 amounted to 8,454,500 tons of CO2e (CO2 or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases). The approximately 10,000 athletes contributed 47,500 tons, the international staff of around 40,000 employees around 190,000 tons, the national Japanese staff of 39,000 contributors around 117,000 tons and the approximately 2,700,000 spectators caused 8,100,000 tons of CO2e.

In addition to the aforementioned reduction in emissions and the use of renewable energies and sustainable furniture such as beds made from recycled cardboard, the (still) unavoidable greenhouse gas emissions will be offset by international climate protection projects. To this end, the IOC has already acquired 1,472,550 tons of carbon credits from 13 projects. These are mainly projects in Africa, such as cookstoves, solar energy, mangrove protection, forestry and clean water projects from the Gold Standard and the Verified Carbon Standard.

If you also want to make your company or your event greenhouse-gas-neutral, you can determine and offset your carbon footprint directly here after taking reduction measures: www.treibhausgasreduktion.de. We would be happy to assist you.

The European market for carbon emission allowances recovered slightly last week and closed the week up a moderate 2.4%. The price managed to break through the 200-day line, which currently stands at EUR 68.22, on several occasions, but had to end the week below this resistance.

As there will be no halving of auction volumes in August this year, as in previous years, only the incipient buying by plant operators could send out further bullish signals, although many portfolio managers are currently on summer vacation and the 30 September delivery date still seems a long way off. It is therefore not unlikely that the share price will move somewhere between EUR 65 and EUR 70 this week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument19/07/2426/07/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)66.30 EUR67.87 EUR+1.57 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)1.01 USD0.98 USD-0.03 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.21 USD0.20 USD-0.01 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)81.69 USD80.63 USD-1.06 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0883 USD1.0855 USD-0.0028 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com). which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting, EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Posted on

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (22/07/2024)

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Last year, the German government generated record revenues of more than 18 billion euros by the European Emissions Trading System.

At the same time, greenhouse gas emissions in the German plants covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme fell by 18% to 289 million tons, the largest decline since the introduction of emissions trading in 2005. Across the EU, the overall decline amounted to 17%. In total, 1.09 billion tons of CO2 or its equivalent in other greenhouse gases were thus emitted in the sectors subject to the EU ETS.

Gross electricity generation in particular contributed to this, as electricity generation from lignite fell by 25% and that from hard coal by as much as 36% compared to the previous year.

And in the first half of 2024, electricity consumption from renewable energies continued to rise visibly year-on-year to 147 terawatt hours in Germany, which corresponds to an increase of 9% according to the Federal Environment Agency. The share of renewables was therefore around 57%.

These declines naturally lead to lower demand for emission rights, which is why the price of carbon emission allowances remained bearish last week and fell by 4.2% at the end of the week.

There is a current technical support line at 65.75 and the next resistance level is the 200-day line at 68.76.

As the Polish auction does not take place on Wednesday as scheduled, the EEX will only auction 11,094,500 EUAs on the remaining trading days this week.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument12/07/2419/07/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)69.19 EUR66.30 EUR-2.89 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)1.03 USD1.01 USD-0.02 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.24 USD0.21 USD-0.03 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)85.44 USD81.69 USD-3.75 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0912 USD1.0883 USD-0.0079 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com). which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting, EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Posted on

Emissions Trading / Carbon Market News (15/07/2024)

Dear Sir or Madam,

In a recent study, the University of Hamburg (UHH) has analysed the indirect effects of the EU Emissions Trading System on hazardous air pollutants. The findings of the Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change and Society” (CLICCS) show that the European Emissions Trading System has both climatic and significant health benefits, while also saving billions in costs.

Since the introduction of emissions trading, 15 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide, one million tonnes of particulate matter and five million tonnes of nitrogen oxides have been reduced in the obligated sectors by 2021. The improved health situation creates an important additional incentive to support climate policy, as the University of Hamburg was able to show avoided health damage totalling more than 100 billion euros on the basis of official cost rates from the German Federal Environment Agency.

Prices in EU emissions trading moved sideways downwards again in the past trading week and closed exactly one cent below the 200-day line on Friday, which stands at EUR 69.20.

It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks when compliance buyers in the EU ETS will start to procure the volumes they have not yet purchased for 2023 on the market.

This week, a total of 13,404,500 EUAs will be auctioned on the EEX on all five trading days and it remains to be seen whether the price will manage to break through the 100-day line on a sustained basis.

    (Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)       
Instrument05/07/2412/07/24Change
EUA (December-2024-Future)70.36 EUR69.19 EUR-1.17 EUR
VER (Natural Carbon Offsets)1.01 USD1.03 USD+0.02 USD
VER (CORSIA eligible Carbon Offsets)0.21 USD0.24 USD+0.03 USD
nEZ (German National Carbon Units)45.00 EUR45.00 EUR+0.00 EUR
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)86.90 USD85.44 USD-1.46 USD
EURO (Currency.. Forex)1.0839 USD1.0912 USD+0.0073 USD

(The VER quotes are average rates (carboncredits.com). which can be used within the framework of CORSIA and voluntary carbon offsetting, EUA. Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

ADVANTAG Services GmbH