Category: Carbon Market News

Dear Sir or Madam,

According to calculations by the Berlin think tank “Agora Energiewende”, this year Germany will experience the largest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the last 30 years. The increase is expected to be 47 million tonnes compared to 2020, in total only 37% below the 1990 level.

According to the calculations by Agora Energiewende, the areas of buildings, transport and industry in particular will fail to meet the sector targets set out in the Climate Protection Act for 2021. “With the current increase, an immediate program with effective climate protection measures across all sectors is not only necessary, but also legally mandatory,” says Dr. Patrick Graichen, Director of Agora Energiewende. Failure to meet the sector targets obliges the implementation of an immediate program in accordance with the current climate protection law, which the new federal government must adopt within the first 100 days.

It can therefore be assumed that climate protection will be an important topic in the coming months even after the federal elections and will lead to the mandatory introduction of additional reduction measures, such as the introduction of a speed limit on German motorways, which at 130 km/h is around 2 million according to calculations by the German Federal Environment Agency would save.

Furthermore, additional measures in the promotion of climate-friendly buildings and the renovation of existing buildings could count.

In the past week, the prices for CO2 emission rights moved in a very volatile range of EUR 52.51 and EUR 58.28, influenced by the energy markets, which have moved significantly downwards due to renewed Corona worries, as shown in the example the price of Brent crude oil, which at the end of last week was $ 65, its lowest level since May.

This week the summer auction volume of 7,565,500 EUA will be offered again on the Leipzig EEX and in the coming week there will be two free days due to the Summer Bank Holiday on Monday and the meeting of the EEX Working Committee on Thursday, which is why only 5,631,000 EUA are offered. From calendar week 36, which begins on September 6, the regular 2021 auction volume of 11.4 million emission rights will start again.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	13.08.21	20.08.21	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	55.39 EUR	54.32 EUR	-1.07 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	55.38 EUR	54.38 EUR	-1.00 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)	2.66 USD	3.26 USD	+0.60 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	14.99 USD	14.03 USD	-0.96 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	70.14 USD	65.03 USD	-5.11 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1796 USD	1.1698 USD	-0.0098 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

The current report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made it abundantly clear that every conceivable human effort must be made to curb carbon emissions. Those who are concerned about the economy and the financial future must first and foremost strive for the fastest possible climate neutrality. The radical rethinking that scientists have long been calling for is the basic requirement for radical changes in behavior – but we are finding it extremely difficult to do so.

The pricing of carbon is supposed to act here as both an incentive and a means of exerting pressure. However, current figures indicate that this alone will not be enough. After the price of the European pollution rights set course for the 60-euro mark at the beginning of July, there was a significant correction shortly afterwards, which caused the price to fall to 50 euros. Now, one could conclude that a carbon price at this level is still effective in terms of climate policy, which is basically true. However, at the same time, due to various circumstances, there was an unusual increase in the price of natural gas, so that the financial advantage in favor of gas-fired power generation no longer existed. According to calculations, the carbon price would have had to rise to 80 euros at times so that energy from coal firing no longer remained the cheaper option. Apart from that, it is of course also extremely important that, firstly, there is always more than enough natural gas available (because supply and demand regulate the price, and security of supply must also be guaranteed), and secondly, renewable energies and the necessary grids are being developed at full speed.

A thoroughly comparable effect can be observed on German roads. Despite all the warnings, the number of new SUV registrations continues to rise continuously – in the first half of 2021 alone, every fourth car newly registered in Germany was an SUV.

During the past trading week, the carbon market presented a mixed picture. After a quiet start, however, the price was able to overcome the 58 euro mark again on Wednesday, before profit-taking led to a correction in the direction of 55 euros. Currently, the market is starting the new trading week optimistically.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	06.08.21	13.08.21	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	56.65 EUR	55.39 EUR	-1.27 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	56.66 EUR	55.38 EUR	-1.28 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)	2.66 USD	2.66 USD	+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	14.99 USD	14.99 USD	+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	70.43 USD	70.14 USD	-0.29 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1761 USD	1.1796 USD	+0.0035 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

At the beginning of last week, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) published a proposal to anchor a new “Joint Task on Climate Adaptation” in the German Constitution and to pass a nationwide climate adaptation law. On its website, the UBA referred to existing, scientifically based proposals for measures with which public administrations, but also companies and private individuals, can reduce losses, prepare for extreme weather events, and adapt to unavoidable climate consequences.

The President of the UBA, Dirk Messner, is also quoted in another context with far-reaching demands aimed at multiplying the annual expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics. In the transport sector, moreover, not only electrification must be advanced, but also the number of automobiles reduced. He also complained that Germany was still much too slow in the sector of climate-friendly building renovation.

Given the current news situation, these demands seem more than timely, if not belated. Above all, the intensity in implementing measures against climate heating must be driven forward globally by all governments, business enterprises and societies.

This is underpinned by the examples from Russia and currently from Italy. Only a few hundred kilometers apart, there is a disaster situation in the north of Italy caused by severe weather, with floods and landslides, while areas in the south of the country are on fire.

A look at the carbon market shows a strong recovery. After the support at 50 euros had previously held steady, the bulls took the initiative on Monday of the last trading week and drove the price up by more than three euros through massive buying. For the rest of the week, the price stabilised in an unexcited sideways movement above the 53-euro mark. Parallel to this, subdued optimism persisted on the oil market, but the rally was clearly slowed down.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	23.07.21	30.07.21	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	50.88 EUR	53.31 EUR	+2.43 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	50.89 EUR	53.33 EUR	+2.44 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)	2.66 USD	2.66 USD	+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	14.99 USD	14.99 USD	+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	74.11 USD	75.17 USD	+1.06 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1770 USD	1.1869 USD	+0.0099 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Just last week we were able to report on positive movements in coal consumption and CO2 emissions. However, there are hardly appropriate words to comment on the tragic events in connection with the extreme weather conditions in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria in a carbon market report. We can only hope that politicians and lobbyists, who until now have always found pseudo-justifications for a stereotypical “business as usual”, will now use all their intelligence and energy to implement climate neutrality measures as quickly as possible. No job can be as valuable as a human life and no positive corporate balance sheet can outweigh the damage caused by the power of nature when it turns against man.

This is directly linked to the hope that the measures summarised by the EU Commission under the leitmotif “Fit for 55″ will not be ” improved” on the way to legal form, as has been the case up to now, until hardly anything of their substance remains. The opposite should now be the case.

With the measures, which were presented last Wednesday by no less than five EU Commissioners together with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her responsible representative Frans Timmermans, the EU Commission wants to achieve the climate targets for 2030. By then, emissions of greenhouse gases are to be reduced by 55 percent compared to 1990. According to Ms von der Leyen, this would make Europe the first continent to present a comprehensive architecture for achieving its climate goals. And just as in Europe the extreme heat and forest fires on other continents are being taken note of, in the USA, China and wherever else the events from the Eifel should be understood as something like a final warning.

A look at the carbon market last week leads via the oil price. After the producing nations known as Opec+ settled their dispute and agreed on a significant increase in oil production in view of the recovery of the world economy, the oil price consequently fell by several dollars. This also pulled the CO2 price a little further down. However, there was no clear correction, but rather led to a sideward movement, which seems to be waiting for a clear price signal.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	09.07.21	16.07.21	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	54.17 EUR	52.87 EUR	-1.30 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	54.26 EUR	52.96 EUR	-1.30 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)	2.66 USD	2.66 USD	+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	14.99 USD	14.99 USD	+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	75.62 USD	73.20 USD	-2.42 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1876 USD	1.1805 USD	-0.0059 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH

Dear Sir or Madam,

Last year, global carbon emissions fell more sharply within a year than they have since World War II, as the oil company BP published in a report.

The Covid-19 pandemic has significantly reduced economic activity globally and thus also the demand for fossil fuels.

Global emissions of CO2 or its equivalents (CO2e) amounted to 32.28 billion tons in 2020, a visible decrease of 2.1 billion tons or 6.3% compared to 2019.

Europe in particular recorded an above-average decline with over 12% to 3.59 billion tonnes. Here Greece led with minus 27%; Germany’s emissions, on the other hand, only fell by 11.5%.

But also in North America, 12% less was emitted, with the USA being one of the largest global emitters after China. China, on the other hand, even had an increase of 89 million tons or 0.6% compared to the previous year.

So if greenhouse-gas emissions could continue to decrease over the next 30 years as they did last year, global CO2 emissions would decrease by around 85% by 2050 and the Paris climate target of 2°C warming could still be achieved. However, it is unfortunately likely that the global economy and increased travel will lead to higher emissions again.

In particular, the decline in oil demand with a minus of more than 9% had an effect here. In particular, the demand for kerosene fell by 40% and for gasoline by 13%.

At the same time, electricity generation from wind and solar energy rose by 358 TWh, which was the largest annual increase. Of this, around half of the growth was recorded in China.

Not least, this meant that global consumption of coal could be reduced by 4.2% or 6 million tons compared to 2019. In Germany, coal consumption fell by a total of 18%, largely thanks to CO2 emissions trading.

This showed a small crash in the past week and thus offered good opportunities to cover your portfolio with EUAs. On Tuesday, the December contract fell significantly from EUR 58.31 to a low of 52.20; on Thursday the low was even at 50.87 euros. Towards the end of the trading week, however, prices recovered significantly and closed above the EUR 54 mark.

(Average Quotes Exchange / OTC)
Instrument	02.07.21	09.07.21	Change
EUA (Spot-Market)	57.24 EUR	54.17 EUR	-3.07 EUR
EUA (December-2021-Future)	57.35 EUR	54.26 EUR	-3.09 EUR
CER (Voluntary Spot-Market ø)	2.66 USD	2.66 USD	+0.00 USD
VER (Gold Standard Spotmarkt ø)	14.99 USD	14.99 USD	+0.00 USD
ICE Brent Crude Oil (Benchmark Future)	76.11 USD	75.62 USD	-0.49 USD
EURO (Currency, Forex)	1.1864 USD	1.1876 USD	+0.0012 USD

(The average exchange quotes and OTC-prices shows the average between bids and ask of several exchanges and OTC markets for carbon emission rights in the ETS. Bid and ask has usually in Spot Market a visible spread. CERs and VERs are average prices in the voluntary carbon offsetting market (eco securities). Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade carbon emission rights or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)

Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220.

With kind regards,

Advantag Services GmbH