Dear Sir or Madam,
The term ‘climate protection’ is essentially meaningless, because the climate does not care how warm it is on Earth, so it does not need to be protected. However, humanity, flora and fauna must be protected from the effects of uncontrolled and exponential global warming, which they themselves are causing through our human made greenhouse gas emissions.
Last week, the European Commission presented its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. The EU aims to reduce CO2e emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
From 2036 onwards, this is to be achieved, among other things, by using international emission allowances from third countries, but only for 3%. It is to be hoped that lessons will be learned from the mistakes made in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementations (JI), whose CER (Certified Emission Reductions) and ERU (Emission Reduction Units) certificates were allowed to be used in the EU ETS in the first trading periods at up to 22% and did not always achieve the desired CO2e savings.
In addition, last week Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety published the draft BEHV (Fuel Emissions Trading Ordinance), which is intended to regulate the period until EU ETS 2. Among other things, this concerned the auctioning of national emission trading allowances next year in a price range of 55 to 65 euros.
Furthermore, it is planned that only 4% of the nEZ26 available in the registry account on 31 December 2026, instead of the current 10%, can be repurchased at a fixed price of 70 euros in the following year. This also applies to any additional requirements exceeding the total auction volume.
Provisions have also been made in the event that the introduction of EU ETS 2 is delayed. In this case, the national emission allowances are to be auctioned at the volume-weighted average price of the EUAs in EU ETS 1.
Following the introduction of the first futures for EU ETS 2 with a maturity date of December 2028 by the Intercontinental Exchange ICE at the beginning of May this year, the first futures for EUA2 are set to be launched today on the European Energy Exchange EEX in Leipzig.
The planned maturities of the futures contracts are 5 December, 5 April and 12 monthly contracts (first tradable expiry date is December 2027).
Last week, the price of EUAs in EU ETS 1 ranged between €68.71 and €72.79 in the benchmark future, with trading very much driven by technical factors.
However, there is a fundamental component to watch out for in the new week, namely the deadline set by Donald Trump for the postponed tariffs. According to his own statements, he intends to send letters to 10 to 12 countries with new import tariffs from Friday onwards if agreements are not reached to his satisfaction.
This will naturally have an enormous impact on the financial markets and, accordingly, on the price development of EUAs. Should the markets fall back into their usual hysteria, EUAs could head back towards 60 euros, which would offer good opportunities to cover the CO2 portfolio at a favourable price with any emission allowances still required.
Contact us in good time and your contact person will develop a tailored procurement strategy with you.
After 11,346,500 EUAs were auctioned on the EEX last week, 13,416,000 will be auctioned on all four trading days this week, representing an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous week.
| Instrument | 27/06/25 | 04/07/25 | Change |
| EUA (December-25-Future) | 70.96 EUR | 71.67 EUR | +0.71 EUR |
| EUA 2 (December-28-Future) | 81.48 EUR | 80.22 EUR | -1.26 EUR |
| nEZ (national Emission Allowances (D)) | 55.00 EUR | 55.00 EUR | +0.00 EUR |
| UKA (December-25-Future (UK)) | 48.12 GBP | 47.71 GBP | -0.41 GBP |
| UK Natural Gas (December-25-Future) | 93.78 GBP | 95.26 GBP | +1.48 GBP |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil (December-25-Future) | 64.98 USD | 65.95 USD | +0.97 USD |
| EURO (Forex) | 1.1719 USD | 1.1778 USD | +0.0059 USD |
(EUA, EUA 2, UKA, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Euro Currency shows day-end-exchange quotes of the benchmark contract. This market information has just an informational character and are no advice or offer to trade emission allowances or their futures and options. If you want to unsubscribe, please reply to this mail.)
Please call our international carbon desk if any further questions exist: +49.2831.1348220 or book here a call with one of our specialists.
With kind regards,
Your Advantag – Team